COVID Data Thread

[roubaixtuesday]

BA 2 is still uncertain is it not?

We know it is more infectious. Which is a scary thought in of itself given the step up BA 1 Omicron was. But nowhere near as much more infective as BA 1 was over what it replaced.

As I understand there are small indications you can get both versions though as this is as yet so new numbers are small. But no data that it impacts the efficacy of the vaccine or is naturally more dangerous.

Though in lab tests on unvaccinated animals it has created more serious illness. Not sure if that is v BA 1 or v previous variants,

I guess the new normal will involve awaiting the Zeta variant that is way way more infectious as you can get it if you live in the same postcode as someone who does and hope that stays as treatable as what we have.

Kind of like we will be playing the lottery every week for a few years hoping our numbers never come up.

Though I am sure at some point a broader spread vaccine will be created to try to anticipate what comes next.As at the speed these highly infectious variants go there will be quite possibly no time to react to them and vaccinate widely before the next one is in your face.

Hopefully repeated exposure and multipe vaccinations will edge us towards a kind of herd immunity even if that is literally not possible in the same way as you cannot against the multiple variants creating the common cold - gven how Covid allows such variety and reinfection.

I am sure you will correc me if I have misunderstood anything.

On BA2, I'm not aware of any evidence it's either more or less severe clinically than bog standard omicron, I was just reflecting that as it's got a transmission advantage, you'd expect to see the decline in cases slow or even reverse for a while. That's what the ONS shows.

On the next variant, I've no idea. And I don't think there's any real way to know.

Could be like omicron, a big sudden change, but less severe. Or like delta, more incremental but enough to have a big spike nonetheless. Could be from the mild, omicron end of the family or the severe delta end, or something new.

Built up immunity will for sure help, but how much is unknowable.

But this is what we should be preparing for. Surveillance, prevention and contingencies for the next one. Building resilience into ventilation design, health care capacity etc. Not just hoping it's all over.

 

[Healdplace]

125 all settings deaths - was 183 last week

99 England only - was 156 last week - 94 in hospital with 8 North West - was 149 with 25 NW last week

Others:- N Ireland 2 v 1 last week, Scotland 16 v 22 last week, Wales 3 v 4 last week


38,933 cases - was 39,656 yesterday & 51,899 last week

28,193 England only - was 29,703 yesterday & 40,376 last week

Others:- N Ireland 2486 v 3027 last week, Scotland 7195 v 7144 last week, Wales 1059 v 1352 last week

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Numbers

Happily another good fall


Admissions (Tuesday)


976 V 1144 previous week & 1266 week before then.

North West - was pretty flat 141 V 140 last week & 148 week before



Patients (today)

8645

That is a fall on yesterday of 223 from 8868 V last week 9600 - which saw a fall of 204

A week to week fall of 955 V one of 936 yesterday.



East down 16 to 873, London down 64 to 1712, Midlands down 51 to 1606, NE & Yorkshire down 17 to 1344, South East down 14 to 1174, South West down 16 to 680


AND North West down 45 to 1256 (V 1403 last week when it fell 34)



Ventilators (today)

262 - down 16 V 303 last week when it fell by 23 on the day



East down 3 to 28, London down 4 to 94, Midlands down 4 to 32, NE & Yorkshire UP 1 to 42,

South East down 2 to 22 , South West down 3 to 13


AND North West - down 1 to 31 (V 41 last week)

 

[Healdplace]

Latest UK hospital numbers


Patients:- England 8645 (down 223), N Ireland 483 (flat), Scotland 1041 (down 52), Wales 599 (up 4)

Ventilated: - England 262 (down 16), N Ireland 4 (down 2), Scotland 11 (flat), Wales 9 (down 2)




UK 10,768 patients & 286 ventilated


This day last year there were:- 15,534 patients & 2118 on ventilators



Not hard to see why we are in so much better shape 12 months on

 

[Healdplace]

120 all settings deaths - was 158 last week

97 England only - was 130 last week - 84 in hospital with 15 North West - was 91 with 6 NW last week

Others:- N Ireland 2 v 4 last week, Scotland 11 v 16 last week, Wales 10 v 8 last week


31,933 cases - was 38,933 yesterday & 47,685 last week

23,526 England only - was 28,193 yesterday & 36,900 last week

Others:- N Ireland 2068 v 2469 last week, Scotland 5484 v 7056 last week, Wales 855 v 1260 last week



THIS IS THE LOWEST CASE TOTAL IN ENGLAND SINCE 19 SEPTEMBER

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Numbers

Happily another fall


Admissions (Wednesday)


976 V 1120 previous week & 1220 week before then.

North West - 132 V 143 last week & 161 week before



Patients (today)

8498

That is a fall on yesterday of 147 from 8645 V last week 9258 - which saw a fall of 342

A week to week fall of 760 V 955 last week.



East UP 12 to 885, London down 51 to 1661, Midlands down 38 to 1568, NE & Yorkshire down 58 to 1286,

South East down 17 to 1157, South West UP 18 to 698


AND North West down 13 to 1243 ( WHICH IS UP V 1227 last week when it fell by 176)





Ventilators (today)

246 - down 16 V 303 last week when it was flat on the day



East level on 28, London level on 94, Midlands down 2 to 30, NE & Yorkshire down 6 to 36,

South East down 1 to 21 , South West down 2 to 11


AND North West - down 5 to 26 (V 39 last week)



THAT IS THE LOWEST NUMBER ON VENTILATORS IN THE NORTH WEST SINCE 27 MAY LAST YEAR

 

[shemnel]

cheers @Healdplace, wherever you've slipped off to. Hope 2022 is a lot calmer for you!

 

[Healdplace]

Thank you. That is much appreciated. I have actually agreed to help a female USAF officer tell her story about living on a UK base during the Cold War. I know next to nothing about such things but she does and needs help on the actual writing. So it will be a different challenge to daily Covid numbers though not the first time I have helped someone write a book .

Still pop in from time to time to catch up on any City news. But kept away from posting here as these threads had naturally run their course and always said when that was obvious I would stop.

Covid of course has not gone away. But it is no longer the biggest threat in the world.

I do still follow things just not as closely. And they have shut down all reporting over weekends so we are only up to Friday in our numbers at the moment anyway.

Will post a one off sit rep if anyone wants it - but will not unless asked.

At least it was a good Sunday!

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Thanks for all the hard work you have put in over the last 18 months or so and pleased to hear that you have found a new challenge that you can apply your skills to
It's true what you say that it hasn't gone away but in the scheme of things other issues have taken precedence.
It would be interesting to read how the hospital numbers are at present, both in terms of numbers, admissions and ventilations. They are the most important ones.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks for all the hard work you have put in over the last 18 months or so and pleased to hear that you have found a new challenge that you can apply your skills to
It's true what you say that it hasn't gone away but in the scheme of things other issues have taken precedence.
It would be interesting to read how the hospital numbers are at present, both in terms of numbers, admissions and ventilations. They are the most important ones.

Thank you. Much appreciated,

England hospital patients are going up now a little. First time on a Monday up week to week in 3 or 4 weeks. A little more concerning is that the new Omicron variant seems to be impacting the over 60s more than the first one did (around 18% of cases V about half that earlier this winter). Might suggest the boosters are waning a bit. Deaths are starting to show a small rise in past few days but so far it is only small and numbers are falling week to week still,

Patients in England rose 421 today to 8923 V 8538 last Monday - biggest jump in a while. Though Mondays always see a lot of admissions. Thy have been back over 1000 every day for a week now. Every region is up today - London the most with NW up 74 to 1286 V 1219 last week.

Ventilators are still just down week to week 239 V 254 but are up 7 over the weekend. NW on 29 up V 20 last week.

Alll regions rising week to week in cases but a flatter rise than the December/January curve. South East added 20K cases over this past 3 day weekend , London 14K, East and South West both 13K. North West 9367 on the three days easily highest of the north & midlands regions. North East the only region barely rising at the moment uder 1000 a day over the 3 days.

In Greater Manchester Stockport still the worst by some margin (395 cases past 3 days). Rochdale the best (just 136 over the 3 days). But all the boroughs are up on last weekend by between 30 & 60% - Stockport up by over 80% week to week)

England added 95,324 casesover the 3 day weekend V 60,595 last weekend - so over 50% rise.

Scotland still doing much the same - added 24,488 case over the weekend V 16,349 last weekend So up 50% Patients rising here too on 1360 today V 1175 last week Ventilators pretty flat on just 18.

Northern Ireland doing the best of the four nations with cases 5769 over the 3 day weekend V 5168 last weekend - with patients down to 466 V 575 last week and ventilators just 2 V 6 last week

Wales less easy to call as a day or two behind in numbers but patients are slightly down 554 V 578 and ventilatirs just 8 V 11 last week.

UK patients are 11,303 V 10,836 last Monday - all of this in England & Scotland offset by falls in the other two nations.

The continuing low ventilator numbers in the UK is really the best news. Just 267 in the UK V 290 last week.