COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND HOSPITAL NEWS

After the deaths some good news at least in the hospital data

Patients FALL for a second day running unexpectedly - by just 58 - to 16,881 - but this time last week patients went UP by 615 to 15,649. So this is another good day showing the fall in cases are not a fluke of testing.

They are translating into fewer in hospital so for real and that will lead to fewer deaths.

Especially as ventilators FALL again from 686 to 672. And North West falls 13 of those 14 to just 84.

Full data later but these matter far more than cases right now.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

North West still on top and UP 3000 today but below 20K and most days in the past week

On current numbers both South East and North West are about a week away from clocking up 2 million cases across the pandemic to join London who did so a few days ago.




NORTH WEST on 19,131 - UP from 16,037 V 19,756 last week & 23,842 2 wks ago



LONDON on 15,453 - UP from 11,809 V 22,558 last week & 22,727 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 14, 814 - UP from 11,792 V 18,006 last week & 12,927 2 wks ago

SOUTH EAST on 14,606 - UP from 10,966 V 20,807 last week & 19,849 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 13,685 - DOWN from 15,866 V 15,127 last week & 13,345 2 wks ago

EAST on 10,118 - UP from 8852 V 15,142 last week & 16,995 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 9987 - UP from 7634 V 9909 last week & 5247 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 8814 - UP from 8626 V 14,331 last week & 11,721 2 wks ago


SOUTH WEST on 8769 - UP from 6281 V 10,993 last week & 10,127 2 wks ago
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA TODAY




ADMISSIONS (Monday - always 48 hours behind)

2180 - was 2219 last week & 1751 the week before


London 355 v 401 last week & 437 wk before - falling weekly

Midlands 404 v 354 last week & 309 wk before - rising weekly

NE & Yorkshire 456 v 374 last week & 244 wk before - rising weekly

AND

North West 407 v 479 last week & 260 wk before - falling this week after rising



PATIENTS - DOWN 58 FROM 16,939 TO 16,881


Last week the equivalent was 15,044 UP 615 TO 15,659


Regionally

East DOWN 15 to 1452, London DOWN 29 to 3797 , Midlands DOWN 62 to 3093, NE & Yorkshire UP 34 to 2826, South East DOWN 33 to 1613 and South West UP 20 to 941.

So South West & Yorkshire rising and the rest falling.


NORTH WEST UP today by 27 - to 3156.



On ventilators there was a FALL today of 14 from 686 to 672. Lowest in three months

Last week there was a fall of 28 to 769 - so it is 97 down on last Wednesday


NW comes off much better in this.


East LEVEL at 72, London UP 9 to 228, Midlands LEVEL at 101, NE & Yorkshire DOWN 6 to 79, South East DOWN 5 to 70 and South West UP 1 to 38

But NORTH WEST DOWN 13 to 84.

Most of the fall today is in the NW. But there have been a lot of deaths here over past few days.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7095

UP by 1217 from 5878 yesterday


NW Total 19,151

UP by 3114 from 16,037 yesterday


GM 37.0% of the NW total today. UP from 36.7% yesterday. So a pretty similar and low GM split as in recent days.

Week to week though GM is UP from 7030 by 65

Whilst North West is DOWN 605 week to week.

Small numbers so no major damage but rather less good obviously for GM.




MANCHESTER 1346 - UP 267 on day & UP 117 on week - Pop Score 243 (POP 26,305)

WIGAN 875 - UP 130 on day & DOWN 59 on week Pop Score 264 (POP 26,689)

BOLTON 798 - DOWN 75 on day & UP 240 on week - Pop Score 277 just enough to enter the 25K club (POP 25,001) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - But highest Pop Score today - and now only 651 ahead of Stockport. Was almost 1000 a few days ago when entering the 24K club

SALFORD 700 - UP 136 on day & DOWN 24 on week - Pop Score 266 (POP 27,759) Highest Pop Score across the pandemic

STOCKPORT 641 - UP 143 on day & DOWN 290 on week. Pop Score 218. Regained 59 more points back on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 25,652)

OLDHAM 626 - UP 189 on day & UP 153 on week. Pop Score 264. POP 25,870)

TAMESIDE 610 - UP 218 on day & DOWN 38 on week. Pop Score 268 (POP 26,459)

ROCHDALE 561 - UP 122 on day & UP 78 on week. Pop Score 251 (POP 26,535)

TRAFFORD 513 - DOWN 21 on day & DOWN 99 on week. Pop Score of 216* (POP 26,388)* Lowest Pop Score in GM today just ahead of Stockport - the two highest scorers a month ago pre Omicron now neck & neck as lowest

BURY 425 - UP 108 on day & DOWN 13 on week. Pop Score 223 to enter the 26K club (POP 26,099)
 
WALES DATA

11 deaths - was 6 last week

3197 cases - was 9213 last week

19.8% positivity - was 25.9% last week

878 patients - up 39 in day - was 723 last week

31 ventilated - down 6 in day - was 39 last week


Cases still dropping well, so is postivity so not just fewer tests, deaths though edging up. Patients rising but not as much as they were and ventilated beds falling.

Strange that exactly the same things are happening in Wales and England despite the two governments making very different decisions on how to restrict people over Christmas and New Year.
 
Healdplace said:
WALES DATA

11 deaths - was 6 last week

3197 cases - was 9213 last week

19.8% positivity - was 25.9% last week

878 patients - up 39 in day - was 723 last week

31 ventilated - down 6 in day - was 39 last week


Cases still dropping well, so is postivity so not just fewer tests, deaths though edging up. Patients rising but not as much as they were and ventilated beds falling.

Strange that exactly the same things are happening in Wales and England despite the two governments making very different decisions on how to restrict people over Christmas and New Year.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it will simply confirm in many more minds that restrictions are a waste of time and totally ineffective when compared with the damage they do - as has been obvious for a long time to anyone not taken in by the media and government flapping / scaremongering.
 
Healdplace said:
Strange that exactly the same things are happening in Wales and England despite the two governments making very different decisions on how to restrict people over Christmas and New Year
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As posted on the other thread, cases rise less (by ONS) in Scotland and Wales than England. In the basis of these figures, they're falling faster too.

Personally, I'm highly sceptical that either of these can be reliably shown to be causally connected to the relatively minor extra restrictions, given the confounding factors. And of course, it doesn't follow that the reduction was worth the extra restrictions.

But I don't think you can draw the conclusion it's "exactly the same".
 
davealvers said:
Hopefully it will simply confirm in many more minds that restrictions are a waste of time and totally ineffective when compared with the damage they do - as has been obvious for a long time to anyone not taken in by the media and government flapping / scaremongering.
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I'd say it's more a case that restrictions are a waste of time for Omicron because it's so much more infectious than the other main variants. As much as we didn't like the earlier lockdowns and restrictions, they were very effective in reducing the spread and case numbers and deaths dropped hugely as a result. But clearly with Omicron, restrictions are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

There is still a very clear upward track of the deaths - though possibly a slight slowing today. And a drop from the catch up increased numbers of the last 2 days - exactly 100 lower than Tuesday in fact. The deaths from the high cases in the North West over the Christmas/New Year period though are still coming through.Hopefully only for a few days more now those cases are falling.

194 with 42 in North West

Was 177 with 40 NW last week & 101 with 15 NW week before Christmas

There was no number for Christmas week in between the last two above as data was released in one 4 day batch that week and not split into actual dates But the week to week post Chrstmas as you see is up but not by a lot - 177 to 194 - a 10% rise in the week.

However, we now have the 7 day numbers for the latest deaths total at 5 days: 02 - 08 JAN

These have increased every day:- 92 - 104 - 121 - 124 - 127 - 130 - 131

Though that does suggest a slowing down.

131 is the highest 5 day total since the very tail end of the January wave last year on 01 MAR.

But it has already been beaten by the next day (09 JAN) wich is on 133 with another day to add on tomorrow. And 10 JAN is at 127 after three days with two days of add ons to come. So it looks quite probable we will have 9 successive days of the 5 day death total rising to what will probably be over 150.

However, it is not shooting up past and might be slowing. These numbers over the next two weeks will tell. Will we get to a 200 death day after 5 days? Hopefully not quite.

The highest total we have so far after all add ons is 06 JAN which is at 140 already. 05 MAR is the last one to have beaten that - with 147 deaths eventually recorded against it.

A bit more hopefully 08 JAN last year had 567 deaths at 5 days. Not 131 as this year.

This was just under 2 weeks from the peak of the deaths.

The actual total for the 5 days deaths in the latest week was 829.

This is up from 511 the wek before - 433 the week before - 508 the week before and 477 the week before that.

So the 829 this week really stands out as the highest in many months.
 
M18CTID said:
I'd say it's more a case that restrictions are a waste of time for Omicron because it's so much more infectious than the other main variants. As much as we didn't like the earlier lockdowns and restrictions, they were very effective in reducing the spread and case numbers and deaths dropped hugely as a result. But clearly with Omicron, restrictions are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard
Click to expand...

Such data as there is suggests omicron is *more* affected by NPIs than delta or other strains.

This can be seen in his three rate of takeover slowed when restrictions were brought to bear, and theoretically would be expected if the generation time is shorter - there's other evidence also that supports that.

I'm not aware of any reason omicron would be less susceptible to restrictions.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
As posted on the other thread, cases rise less (by ONS) in Scotland and Wales than England. In the basis of these figures, they're falling faster too.

Personally, I'm highly sceptical that either of these can be reliably shown to be causally connected to the relatively minor extra restrictions, given the confounding factors. And of course, it doesn't follow that the reduction was worth the extra restrictions.

But I don't think you can draw the conclusion it's "exactly the same".
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Fair enough exactly the same is obviously too loose a choice of words.

But the pattern has been followed pretty well regardless and I think it shows stemming Omicron was both a futile task with severe restrictions and probably a very arguable data call as to whether it was better to just get it over with versus trying to slow it by days or a week or two. Especially as the restrictions were over the long holiday fortnight.

The absurd row between Wales and England over Chester FC whose ground straddles the border proves that. Stands in one country. Car park in the other. They used the English rules and had supporters. Wales think they have broken the laws there.

Our biggest mistake imo - and I said this in here two years ago - was NOT creating a unified policy from the off - a kind of war cabinet I suggested - around the time Boris was going to the party that might cost him his job.

Covid does not recognise Offa's Dyke or Hadrian's Wall. Letting nationalism dictate policy so as to try to give grounds for success that would drive a push for splitting up the UK risked the very thing that has made the UK stay together as a union. We work better sharing ideas, adopting the best across the UK and acting as one. Whilst allowing local law making on most things. But a pandemic is NOT most things.

My friend has visited family in Wales about 10 times in the pandemic and has had to ask me every time if there was something she should know before travelling as nobody can keep up with the shifting sands of rules in 4 different nations.
 
Healdplace said:
The absurd row between Wales and England over Chester FC whose ground straddles the border proves that. Stands in one country. Car park in the other. They used the English rules and had supporters. Wales think they have broken the laws there.

Our biggest mistake imo - and I said this in here two years ago - was NOT creating a unified policy from the off - a kind of war cabinet I suggested - around the time Boris was going to the party that might cost him his job.

Covid does not recognise Offa's Dyke or Hadrian's Wall. Letting nationalism dictate policy so as to try to give grounds for success that would drive a push for splitting up the UK risked the very thing that has made the UK stay together as a union. We work better sharing ideas, adopting the best across the UK and acting as one. Whilst allowing local law making on most things. But a pandemic is NOT most things.

My friend has visited family in Wales about 10 times in the pandemic and has had to ask me every time if there was something she should know before travelling as nobody can keep up with the shifting sands of rules in 4 different nations.
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Excellent points. I'm just back from visiting pubs in Wales, where staff (often mask exempt) stand over you and take your name and phone numbers with pen and paper and table service is mandatory (England : do what you like but mask wearing while moving is advised).

Can't say it feels any safer in Wales, and the impact of the measures seems to be that older folk seem to have stopped going to pubs entirely. Mind you, pubs are just as quiet over the Severn at the moment.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL 194 DEATHS TODAY

By region:

East 31, London 27, Midlands 43, NE & Yorkshire 28, North West 42,Soith East 12, South West 11

Most by Trust:

9 each in Mid & Sth Essex & Barts, London

NW trusts:

9 in Manchester, 8 in East Lancashire, 5 each in Blackpool & Wirral, 3 each in Bolton, Chester, Pennine Acute & Tameside AND 1 each in Salford, Stockport & Wigan


By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (12), 60 - 79 (78), 80 PLUS (98)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Such data as there is suggests omicron is *more* affected by NPIs than delta or other strains.

This can be seen in his three rate of takeover slowed when restrictions were brought to bear, and theoretically would be expected if the generation time is shorter - there's other evidence also that supports that.

I'm not aware of any reason omicron would be less susceptible to restrictions.

Click to expand...

Short of a full-on lockdown, a few extra restrictions are not going to do much to stem the tide of Omicron. Look at France for example - they've more restrictions than England, yet are currently running at over 350,000 cases per day.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

26 deaths - was 18 last week

8203 cases -was 11,360 last week - still down but not as big a fall as last few days

15% positivity - was 23.1% last week

1560 patients - up 23 on yesterday - was 1223 last week

58 ventilated icu - was 59 yesterday - was 43 last week

Hospital data still rising but last Thursday the patients were up by over 50% week to week. This week it is about half that.
 
What are these tough restrictions being referred to. Isn’t banning spectators from watching the Scottish Pub League a bonus?

it’s hard to say whether having different rules in the principalities was nationalistic or not. I guess WJK and Drakeford probably thought they were doing the right things but it was pretty futile. Yes, Welsh “leaders” have embarrassed themselves over Chester but public administration around there is a joke in “normal” times.

I think the most significant development today is JVT moving on. He clearly thinks we are over the worst and he knows what he’s talking about. The 5 / 6 day isolation period won’t do much to help staffing in health and social care but at least it signals a further easing of rules, without adding much risk.

194 deaths in English hospitals is still sad.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Some numbers here are good others rather less so, which is which will be ovious

14 deaths - was 4 last week

2980 cases - was 6877 last week

23,848 cases - was 27,934 yesterday & 49,270 last week - looking more 'normal' now about double usual not quadruple

211 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - UP 6 ON YESTERDAY - WAS 179 LAST WEEK - LOOKED TO BE SLOWING BUT IS NOW UP AGAIN.

HARD TO THINK THE HIGH DEATHS ARE NOT LINKED TO THIS DRAMATIC RISE IN NUMBER OF OUTBREAKS AS THE AGE PROFULE OF POSITIVE TESTING HAS CHANGE WITH IT OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS

424 patients - was 439 yesterday & 404 last week

22 ventilated - was 24 yesterday & 24 last week

Up but not by lots but you have to wonder if the high deaths impact the ventilator stability.
 
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SCOTLAND CARE HOME DATA

An update to the latest weekly numbers (to 12JAN)

287 homes - 27% of all in Scotland - now have ongoing reported outbreaks

In the week to 9 JAN there were 818 newly reported cases in care home residents and 1078 amongst staff in those care homes.

These are from a total across the entire pandemic of 13,871 residents - so 5.9% of all cases reported across the pandemic occurred in the 7 days up to 9 JAN.

For care home staff the new cases were from 11,260 aross the pandemic - so 9.6% of all the cases reported across the pandemic occurred in the 7 days up to 9 JAN

These are a little down on last week thankfully but still shocking to think one in ten of all the care home staff and over 1 in 20 of the residents who caught Covid in the past two years did so in care homes over the past 7 days.

Yet the media continue to ignore this story in N Ireland and Scotland and you can be sure is happening with even larger numbers in England and very likely now why death numbers are rising and rising most in the over 80s.
 
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Healdplace said:
Covid does not recognise Offa's Dyke or Hadrian's Wall. Letting nationalism dictate policy so as to try to give grounds for success that would drive a push for splitting up the UK risked the very thing that has made the UK stay together as a union. We work better sharing ideas, adopting the best across the UK and acting as one. Whilst allowing local law making on most things. But a pandemic is NOT most things.
Click to expand...

Th co-ordination of COVID policy x UK has been a fiasco.

Without commenting which side of the argument I'd come down on, this has been driven many political imperatives incl England not wishing to engage the devolved authorities, those authorities wishing to assert their independence, the desire of England to have a demonstrably different approach to Europe etc.

All of which is ultimately largely futile as mobility between the juristictions is so high anyway.
 
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