COVID Data Thread

ZOE ON GREATER MANCHESTER

As the Gov UK numbers show again Greater Manchester DOES have the worst numbers in the North West - explaining why it is over 50% of the region's cases right now

BUT importantly nowhere is miles ahead of the North West or other areas, It is mainly that the once low boroughs (such as Bolton and Stockport) have risen modestly to mid levels. And all the ones sub 10,000 have exited to just above.

So evenly spread small changs OTHER THAN Manchester and Rochdae which are both well above the pack.

Here is the GM Zoe 10 borough list in highest to lowest order:


Manchester 25,947

Rochdale 24,693

Salford 19,809

Stockport 17,425

Oldham 16,892

Trafford 16,508

Wigan 15,631

Bolton 14,728

Tameside 10,715

Bury 10,074



Much of the North West is running just below the bulk of the GM numbers:

Merseyside is still high though - Wirral 18, 657, Liverpool 16,389, Cheshire West 15,602 & Cheshire East 11,818 (is falling too here) & High Peak 14,228.

The highest NW numbers are ALL in Greater Manchester.
 
SCOTLAND DATA



0 deaths - was 0 last week

6734 cases - was 3751 last week - like Wales more or less doubled week to week

15.2% positivity - was 11.8% last week

516 patients - was 504 yesterday & 561 last week

38 ventilated - was 38 yesterday & 39 last week



CASES WELL UP BY NEARLY 50% WEEK TO WEEK THIRD DAY RUNNING.

POSITIVITY WELL UP

HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE CREEPING BACK UP BUT NOT BY MUCH AND STILL DOWN WEEK TO WEEK
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA



0 deaths - was 0 last week

6734 cases - was 3751 last week - like Wales more or less doubled week to week

15.2% positivity - was 11.8% last week

516 patients - was 504 yesterday & 561 last week

38 ventilated - was 38 yesterday & 39 last week



CASES WELL UP BY NEARLY 50% WEEK TO WEEK THIRD DAY RUNNING.

POSITIVITY WELL UP

HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE CREEPING BACK UP BUT NOT BY MUCH AND STILL DOWN WEEK TO WEEK
Click to expand...
Hospital numbers alway ceep up over the weekend, Tomorrow and Wednesday will be the ones to watch
 
TODAYS !2K PLUS CASES FROM NORTHERN IRELAND BY AGE OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS.

UP 1000 CASES ON LAST ONE I POSTED ON FRIDAY. AS CASES ARE RISING AND OMICRON WILL BE PART OF THAT.

BUT THE NUMBER OVER 80 IS DOWN AGAIN (87 to 79) THE 60 - 79 IS UP BUT BY THE SMALLEST RISE (524 to 582) THE OTHERS ARE UP 4539 TO 4726 AND 3094 TO 3451 - BUT BY FAR THE MOST (20 - 39 age group) UP FROM 4517 TO 5789.

THIS IS STIL VERY VERY MUCH AN OUTBREAK OF THE YOUNG - HENCE WHY HOSPITALISATIONS AND DEATHS ARE NOT ACCELERATING. THE BOOSTERS WORKING CLEARLY VERSUS DELTA.....IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HW THAT LASTS V OMICRON - BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE ONE TO WATCH TO JUDGE THAT QUESTION IN COMING WEEKS.


1640009754614.png
 
blueparrot said:
Hospital numbers alway ceep up over the weekend, Tomorrow and Wednesday will be the ones to watch
Click to expand...
Thank you.

In England they tend to fall at the start of thevweekend then rise significantly on Monday as cases present from over the weekend I presume. But numbers there are much higher than Scotland and the other two nations so patterns are easier to see.

Not sure if that is different in Scotland though they have been inching up in England for a week or two now week to week so the old pattern is not so obvious there.

They edged up most days up to Friday last week when they did fall. But I expect a big rise today in London and probably the North West to some degree. We will see later.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA


1 death - was 4 last week

2148 cases - was 1431 last week

14,632 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 12,768 FRIDAY & 12,084 LAST WEEK

41 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 38 FRIDAY & 36 LAST WEEK - STARTING TO RISE A BIT HERE AGAIN

276 patients - was 312 Friday & 309 last week

23 Ventilated - was 25 FRiday & 29 last week

HOSPITAL NUMBERS WELL DOWN NOTICE DESPITE HIGH CASES - MOST LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE AGE SPLIT SHOWN IN THE POST ABOVE AND OF COURSE THE DELAY IF OMICRON CHANGES THIS
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Slight edging up in recent days as you see from the Monday numbers week to week but nothing sigificant as yet.


SATURDAY

84 with 12 North West - Was 91 with 12 NW last week & 81 with 12 NW week before

Most by trust: Leeds & Birmingham 4 each

NW Trusts: 4 in St Helens, 2 in Manchester & 1 each in Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, Pennine Acute, Warrington, Wigan & Wirral




SUNDAY

17 with 1 North West - Was 20 with 1 NW last week & 20 with 2 NW week before

Most by trust: 4 in East Kent

NW Trusts: 1 in Liverpool



TODAY

22 with 0 North West - Was 8 with 0 NW last week & 16 with 1 NW week before

Most by trust: 4 each in Birmingam & Nottingham





WEEKEND TOTAL: 123 V 119 LAST WEEK & 117 WEEK BEFORE - AS YOU SEE EDGING UP VERY SLOWLY

TOTAL BY AGE: 20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (21), 60 - 79 (40), 80 PLUS (59)
 
44 deaths - was 38 last week

England 35 - was 26 last week

91,743 cases

76,065 in England - up 4363 on yesterday - was 44,931 last week

The England week to week rise is 31, 134 v yesterday was 30,989, 33,886 day before & 34,785 day before that.

Still seems fairly flat but I guess we have to see how the next couple of days go before gettimg too optimistyic. But as yet not exponentially rising.
 
England hospital over the weekend:

Patients FRI/SAT/SUN/TODAY 6321 / 6287 / 6434 / 6688

So up 254 today. And up 367 over the weekend


LAST WEEK THESE WERE:- 6088 / 6095 / 6223 / 6395

So up 172 last Monday v 254. And up 307 over the weekend v 367.

Pretty similar weekend to last weekend.


Unsurprisingly London had the worst weekend: 1534 TO 1819 - UP 285 of that 367 just there (This is UP 459 week to week)


East up 4 to 607, Midlands up 10 to 1177, NE & Yorkshire up 19 to 847, South East up 22 to 828, South West DOWN 5 to 519.

North West had the second worst weekend - though far better than London - 859 TO 891 up 32 (This is UP 39 week to week)


VENTILATORS OVER THE WEEKEND WERE:- 789 / 767 / 767 / 768 - down 21 over the weekend,

LAST WEEK THESE WERE:- 793 / 785 / 788 / 795 - up 2 over the weekend.

Week to week down 27 795 - 768

Current totals and up/down over weekend East 88 (up 8) London 206 (down 2), Midlands 142 (down 6), NE & Yorkshire 100 (down 3), South East 91 (down 1), South West 52 (down 11)

AND NORTH WEST 89 (down 6)
 
Looking at this 0.6% thing. if that pans out. it would take 750k cases a day to hit Alpha's hospitalisation rate at its peek las Jan. 0.8 is the figure that was used in our models which is about 500k cases a day to match that point.

the question is, how real is the threat of 500-750k cases a day.
 
grunge said:
Looking at this 0.6% thing. if that pans out. it would take 750k cases a day to hit Alpha's hospitalisation rate at its peek las Jan. 0.8 is the figure that was used in our models which is about 500k cases a day to match that point.

the question is, how real is the threat of 500-750k cases a day.
Click to expand...

Even half of Alpha is a big problem. 250-400k per day is credible, but not certain. Though we'd run out of testing capacity so never actually record that many.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Even half of Alpha is a big problem. 250-400k per day is credible, but not certain. Though we'd run out of testing capacity so never actually record that many.
Click to expand...
Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?

How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750

I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.

Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.

But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
 
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Healdplace said:
Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?

How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past few days numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750

I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becomong dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.
Click to expand...

No idea.

Some combination of
- reporting issues and delays
- testing maxxed out
- people choosing not to test to avoid Christmas isolation
- totally unexpected behaviour of the virus


-
 
Healdplace said:
Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?

How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750

I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.

Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.

But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
Click to expand...
Neither am I, but is clearly not doing as the modeling would leave you to believe.
 
Healdplace said:
Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?

How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750

I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.

Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.

But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
Click to expand...

to throw my 2p in the mix, and its just muddies the water to be honest( on top of what roubaixtuesday added)

-We dont sequence all cases so I think there is a lot of hit and miss going on with Omicron. I think our sequencing is at about 10-15% of all positive PCR's It could be the nature of the random sequencing playing a role here.

-Im still unclear if the dashboard is showing any reinfections at all, I really wish they would clear this one up. so the numbers could be flattened out by the fact they are excluding all previous infected and is hiding a lot of omicron as its main mode of transmission is reinfection but we're only showing data for those who are 1st time infection.
 
Interesting - thanks all.

A doctor just said on TV that they do not count an infection if you have had a previous infection. You just get recorded once.

I think that is what they said (I was half listening and not sure how they would even know given the huge numbers) but that is crazy IF true given the difference between variants and the fact you can be infected by both and be just as transmissable to others. Perhaps she meant only one test is recorded not multiple ones before you test positive. Though that was not what she appeared to say.

But given the mess some of our data recording and reporting has been nothing would be a surprise.

As another doctor said earlier - case numbers are flawed - POSITIVITY - is the key measure right now.

So true, but as I often note in the numbers here England is the only nation who ignores it unlike the others who report it daily in their data (as advised by WHO) for exactly that reason. England expect you to work it out and presumably hope you never bother. Which the media duly oblige and never do.
 
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Healdplace said:
Interesting - thanks all.

A doctor just said on TV that they do not count an infection if you have had a previous infection. You just get recorded once.

I think that is what they said (I was half listening) but that is crazy IF true given the difference between variants and the fact you can be infected by both and be just as transmissable to others.
Click to expand...

Its certainly what the dashboard states in the fine print, I think it was a shortcut taken as when it was developed reinfection was very rare then and they needed to filter out those who were having multiple PCR's in a short time period. I read some patients in hospital were getting 1 per day for example which would have skewed figures upwards.

they need to address this shortcoming on the dashboard asap with Omicron, maybe add a couple of months timer to the re registering a case.
 
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