COVID Data Thread

Manchester area hospitals are now reporting the situation last week considered serious due to rising cases and falling staff off with Covid or isolating has eased.

Patient numbers have stopped going up steeply, ICU and ventilator capacity has not been stretched beyond where it was and less staff are off than last week.

This infers the falls in numbers are real not just some statistical quirk or due to fewer tests.

Perhaps the peak in the region has passed or is on the verge of doing so as suspected from what happened in London.
 
Last edited:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


As expected a BIG number today. Created by how it is always highest on Tuesday due to weekend catch up registrations - which given we had two days when only 3 regions reported in yesterdays weekend data was always going to be up on usual.Plus the tail end of Christmas lag (a lot of catch up going back weeks in todays numbers shows that). There is also real increase caused by sheer numbers of cases that is inevitable. But this is as yet not a large increase.


294 with 46 North West

No comparison over past 2 weeks owing to the bank holidays

BUT the week before Christmas (TUE 21 DEC) the number was:-

153 with 20 North West


However, as you can see by the huge numbers in London, Midlands, South East & Yorkshire (all four of which had no data at all over the Sat & Sun of the weekend so these are 3 day totals for them) that this probably on its own is responsible for maybe a third of the 141 increase over 3 weeks ago. So there is a rise but it is nothing like the one that it appears to be here. The real number probably nearer 200 than 300. And NW was likely the real highest scorer today.




By region:-

East 1, London 60, Midlands 80, NE & Yorkshire 54, North West 46, South East 34, South West 19

Most by trust:- Birmingham 18, Lewisham 12


North West Trusts:

11 in Liverpool (see Zoe data above for why), 9 in Wigan, 8 in Bolton, 3 each in Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, Southport & Warrington, 2 each in East Lancashire & Pennine Acute AND 1 each in Salford & Stockport



By Age:

Sadly there are several younger deaths today


0-19 (3), 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (21), 60 - 79 (119), 80 PLUS (146)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

After the catch up today we can start to judge the real size of the increase

Here are the current numbers for the first 5 days of the current week of deaths after 5 days (2 - 6 JAN)

WITH the numbers for the same 5 days in the two previous weeks after 5 days


19 - 23 DEC TOTALS:- 72 - 82 - 63 - 74 - 44

26 - 30 DEC TOTALS: - 76 - 81 - 101 - 55 - 42

02 - 06 JAN TOTALS: - 92 - 104 - 121 - 124 - 127


This shows that there is little doubt the numbers ARE rising even allowing for catch up as these are the deaths ON those days so not just reported on those days where catch up could distort them.

How close we are to the peak of these numbers is hard to say. But if deaths do not go above 150/200 at the high point I think would be below predictions by some scientists.

If this seems depressing here are the same numbers for the equivalent weeks a year ago. (Dates are up one to make them the same day of the week)


20 - 24 DEC TOTALS:- 292 - 338 - 305 - 293 - 238

27 - 31 DEC TOTALS:- 371 - 358 - 378 - 372 - 381

03 - 07 JAN TOTALS:- 418 - 504 - 547 - 555 - 557


Think you can see just how much of a better place we are in one year on.

Those numbers last year by the way peaked 12 days after that 557 on 19 JAN at 787.

I can confidently say we will be nowhere near that 12 months later. And if we stay the same proprtion of last year as now we should not quite get up to 200 if the wave peaks around the same date. As it may not, of course.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

16 deaths - was 1 last week

10,392 cases - was 17,259 last week

27.7% positivity - was 35.3% last week

1479 patients - up 47 on yesterday - was 1152 last week (daily rise then was 119)

54 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 42 last week


Numbers here seem to be starting to stabilise too. Though deaths seem high. After very big case numbers over Christmas and New Year not really too surprising.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

1 death (15 last week but that was catch up on several days - see below)

3420 cases (no straight comparison last week as it was 30,423 - which was a total of 4 days worth - so is clearly a fall this week it seems from the likely split of those numbers)

33,666 weekly cases - was 37,419 yesterday & 50,627 last week - again impacted by last week but clearly down

203 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 202 YESTERDAY & 158 LAST WEEK - HAPPILY THIS RASH OF OUTBREAKS IS SLOWING DOWN TOO (IT WAS 190 LAST FRIDAY)

440 patients - was 387 yesterday & 348 last week - big increase here I am guessing care home related

22 ventilated - was 22 yesterday & 25 last week - BUT these not rising hopefully infers that the patients going in are not in immediate need of vemtilation either.
 
TODAYS GRAPHIC OF THE 33,666 WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE. THE OVER 80s (CARE HOME RELATED PROBABLY) ARE STILL UP AT NOW 1.3% (IT WAS A THIRD OF THAT PRE THE CARE HOME QUADRUPLING OVER CHRISTMAS/NEW YEAR). AND 9.3% OVER 60 (THIS WAS UNDER 5% SO HAS DOUBLED WHILST THE OVER 80S HAVE TRIPLED).

STILL WELL BELOW THE NUMBERS IN THE WAVE LAST JANUARY THOUGH WHEN IT WAS DOUBLE THIS

INDEED I JUST CHECKED THE SAME DATE IN 2021

THEN THERE WERE OVER 6% 80 PLUS (5 TIMES TODAY) AND 22% OVER 60 (MORE THAN DOUBLE)

A VERY GOOD SNAPSHOT OF HOW THE VACCINES ARE MODERATING COVID FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE


1641916330241.png
 
Last edited:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Patients fall - unusual on a Tuesday. Down 181 to 16,939.

Last week they went up 834 to 15,044.

Ventilators also fall by 21 to 686 - lowest in weeks.

Midlands and NE & Yorkshire the only two regions to ADD patients today.

Even North West falls from 3206 to 3129.
 
kaz7 said:
still another 379 lost souls
Click to expand...
It is. But this might even be the highest we get from now on as it was the most likely day to be the high point - with catch up over Christmas (they date back weeks in the numbers today) and Tuesdays always being the biggest day of the week as it adds all the weekend registrations in too.

Think a month ago when Omicron was still an unknown quantity we would have taken cases tumbling and deaths at this kind of high point (they will almost certainly be down again tomorrow). And with hospital numbers falling too. And ventilator patients lower than in any day in November and December in January. Not shooting up into the thousands as they were this time last year.

It is better than I suspect most of us had dare hope.
 
Healdplace said:
It is. But this might even be the highest we get from now on as it was the most likely day to be the high point - with catch up over Christmas (they date back weeks in the numbers today) and Tuesdays always being the biggest day of the week as it adds all the weekend registrations in too.

Think a month ago when Omicron was still an unknown quantity we would have taken cases tumbling and deaths at this kind of high point (they will almost certainly be down again tomorrow). And with hospital numbers falling too. And ventilator patients lower than in any day in November and December in January. Not shooting up into the thousands as they were this time last year.

It is better than I suspect most of us had dare hope.
Click to expand...
I understand that , i have not counted it by day for a really long time , just more people have died , per day label doesnt matter to me , if you see what i mean
 
Of course, I do Kaz. I suspect we have all lost or know someone who has lost a loved one in this terrible two years. But we need to focus on the good things that point to this becoming less and less likely in the coming months.

Not out of the woods yet but daylight is at last flickering through the leaves ahead.
 
In normal times,pre covid, we averaged 1600 deaths a day in the UK and no-one bats an eyelid because it is not highlighted by the media on a daily basis.
Surely it is now time that we stop highlighting deaths every night and concentrate on the only data that is relevant to the UK returning to normality, hospital admissions and positive cases.
This does not mean that we should not show empathy with people who have lost loved ones , but the majority of people I speak to, think that the death numbers reported by the media , have died on that date and not over the last 28 days.
 
Chappie said:
In normal times,pre covid, we averaged 1600 deaths a day in the UK and no-one bats an eyelid because it is not highlighted by the media on a daily basis.
Surely it is now time that we stop highlighting deaths every night and concentrate on the only data that is relevant to the UK returning to normality, hospital admissions and positive cases.
This does not mean that we should not show empathy with people who have lost loved ones , but the majority of people I speak to, think that the death numbers reported by the media , have died on that date and not over the last 28 days.
Click to expand...
Because it has been a world wide pandemic and it had to be controlled and reported for public health and science reasons , it is still contageous and most of the other deaths were not , if people dont know why we get a daily figure they have been in a cave for two years !
 
Chappie said:
the majority of people I speak to, think that the death numbers reported by the media , have died on that date and not over the last 28 days.
Click to expand...
The number "reported" each day is the number that have died in the 24 hours up to when the numbers were collated not in the "last 28 days".

The "28 days" refers to those that died, who tested positive in the previous 28 days.
 
I do not fully understand how all the totting up in England is done. But....

The England hospital number reported every day here comes from all over the place and not just the day before. There were only 17 of the 294 total today that actually died on 10 Jan - yesterday.

And 71 from 9 Jan. And 69 from Jan 8. Deaths added today went back well before Christmas over multiple days.

That is why I do the table every few days showing the total at 5 days in England hospital numbers - as after 5 days of cases being added onto a date it is largely stable though will still add extra ones to that date over coming weeks or months from time to time. It is not that rare for deaths from months ago to be added. Though these are sometimes discounted as having been double counted after checking.

Yesterday on Gov UK shows 49 recorded for date of death 10 Jan. It will grow as more are added. 9 Jan is shown as 117 and 8 Jan as 124.

6 Jan is shown as 165. There were 160 reported from England hospitals on 7 Jan ascribed to the day before. There will have been some added from out of hospital and maybe sone discounted.

It is quite complicated. Hence why the media just announce the added up hospital number in the afternoon and or the Gov UK total later. Neither are likely the 'real' number that died on the day. But the 17 from yesterday will be over 100 probably in 5 days time when more extra deaths reported from that date are added in over the next few days hospital death numbers.

Nobody would follow all this if expalined by the media - I get confused and have been doing it for 2 years. No wonder they just post the number given on the day with lots of past days added up. They are rarely miles apart from the 'real' number.
 
Last edited:
Today's North West cases total is the lowest in 16 days. Down over 5000 on the day and down nearly 14,000 on last Tuesday! But everywhere is well down and NW still top scorer today.

The Greater Manchester numbers are massively down too as you might expect.

Yorkshire was less than 200 behind NW today. It is rising fast in the rankings but the gap was over 4000 yesterday. Combine North East with Yorkshire as the NHS does and the total is over 7000 ahead of the NW.

Combining the two Midlands regions would put them 4000 ahead of the North West today too.

Zoe has had these regions going in opposite directions for a day or two as I posted this lunch time. So this is nt a surprise.

Both these regions also ADDED patients today into the England hospital numbers when everyone else - North West included - FELL. So this all fits together.
 
Last edited:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA TODAY

Surprisingly good day. Not fallen on a Tuesday in a while.


ADMISSIONS (Sunday - always 48 hours behind)

1975 - was 1881 last week & 1374 the week before


London 277 v 347 last week & 374 wk before - falling weekly

Midlands 424 v 371 last week & 251 wk before - rising weekly

NE & Yorkshire 365 v 316 last week & 157 wk before - rising weekly

AND

North West 362 v 362 last week & 213 wk before - flat after rising



PATIENTS - DOWN 181 FROM 17,120 TO 16,939


Last week the equivalent was 14,210 going UP 834 TO 15,044


Regionally

East DOWN 30 to 1467, London DOWN 104 to 3826, Midlands UP 10 to 3155, NE & Yorkshire UP 34 to 2792, South EastDOWN 23 to 1649 and South West UP 9 to 921.

So Midlands and Yorkshire rising and London falling.


NORTH WEST also FELL today by 77 - to 3129 - back below the Midlands.



On ventilators there was a FALL today of 21 from 707 TO 686. Lowest in three months

Last week there was a rise of 20 to 797 - so it is 111 down on last Tuesday - the biggest weekly fall in ages


NW comes off less well in this.


East down 4 to 72, London down 6 to 219, Midlands down 4 to 101, NE & Yorkshire down 6 to 85, South East up 2 to 75 and South West down 7 to 37

Unfortunately NORTH WEST is UP again by 4 from 93 TO 97.
 
Chappie said:
In normal times,pre covid, we averaged 1600 deaths a day in the UK and no-one bats an eyelid because it is not highlighted by the media on a daily basis.
Surely it is now time that we stop highlighting deaths every night and concentrate on the only data that is relevant to the UK returning to normality, hospital admissions and positive cases.
This does not mean that we should not show empathy with people who have lost loved ones , but the majority of people I speak to, think that the death numbers reported by the media , have died on that date and not over the last 28 days.
Click to expand...
They should take it off the news now or just once a week. It’s an easy story for the Journalists but it’s too much now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top