COVID Data Thread

England Hospital Key Numbers

Admissions (Sunday) 1535 V 1768 last week & 1975 two weeks ago




NW 218 V 295

All other regions down signifcantly too - NW lowest of the 4 big regions



Rest of data today:-


Patients 14,088 - DOWN from 14,563 yesterday V 16,218 last week

Last week the Tuesday fall was 403 - today it is 475

EVERY region falls today - North West by the most

FALLS

East DOWN by 24 to 1272, London by 30 to 2762, Midlands by 83 to 2670, NE & Yorkshire by 69 to 2571 South East by 47 to 1456 & South West by 16 to 882


AND North West by easily the most 206 to 2475



Ventilators down yet again also by 20 to 501 - down from 521 yesterday V 614 last week

NW 63 - down 1 V 69 last week

Every region bar South East (FLAT on 37 V 62 last week) was down today:.

East down 4 on 46 V 50 last week, London down 5 on 180 V 214 last week, Midlands down 3 on 91 V 107 last week, NE & Yorkshire down 5 to 70 V 86 last week

South West is down 2 on just 14 - after being 59 three weeks ago
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split now just as the Zoe data has been showing. South going back up. North still going down.

Meanwhile North West is in SIXTH - its lowest of the new year. Matching progress on Zoe again.



SOUTH EAST on 16,374 - UP from 14,720 V 14,739 last week & 10,966 wks ago

LONDON on 10,810 - UP from 9918 V 11,116 last week & 11,809 2 wks ago

EAST on 10,621 - UP from 9708 V 9381 last week & 8852 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 9051 - UP from 8617 V 10,102 last week & 11,792 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 9030 - UP from 8069 V 7646 last week & 6281 2 wks ago




NORTH WEST on 8452 - UP from 7557 V 10.177 last week & 16,037 2 wks ago




YORKSHIRE on 7792 - UP from 6983 V 9147 last week & 15,866 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 7238 - UP from 6477 V 6990 last week & 8626 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 4234 - UP from 3726 V 5809 last week & 7634 2 wks ago



North West is today on 1,990,330 - so on current numbers is now about 2 days away from becoming the third to top the two million cases milestone. London and South East are already over that. Though may even do so tomorrow if cases rise again as they might.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY



Zoe has been tracking the progress of GM boroughs pretty well lately. And saw the recently best in GM Stockport slowing and nor rising again over past few days. Most others may track the same way just a few days behind. But for now these are mozstly falling still.

The last three Manchester scores have been the three lowest 'high numbers in GM' in 2022 so far.






TOTAL CASES 3022 - Up by 196 from 2826 yesterday


North West 8452 - Up by 895 from 7557 yesterday

GM 35.7% of NW - the last three days have been in the 35% range split of the region recently which is good news with a rise like today as it is below par.



GM is also down from 3724 last week by 702


NW is down from 10,177 by 1725.

GM is about expected split of that fall. at 40.7% - the higher the better when a fall, of course.




MANCHESTER 575 - UP 30 on day & DOWN 85 on week - Pop Score 103* (POP 27,893)


WIGAN 395 - UP 28 on day & DOWN 36 on week Pop Score 120*. (POP 28,232)


STOCKPORT 372 - UP 50 on day & UP 46 on week. Pop Score 127 . Not far off worst Pop in GM today after being best a coupke of days ago. Lost 29 back to Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic and way over 500 behnd now so stopped closing the gap illustrating that it is now heading in the wrong direction. Indeed Oldham is getting closer to Stockport daily and may soon be taking over as the true challenger to Bolton. Into the 27 K club (POP 27,181)

TAMESIDE 298 - UP 51 on day & DOWN 72 on week. Pop Score 132* (POP 28,351) * Highest Pop Score in GM today again.


BOLTON 283 - UP 1 on day & DOWN 92 on week. Pop Score 98 Last one standing in 26K club probably for another three or four days. (POP 26,626) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - now 555 ahead of the pack.

OLDHAM 236 - UP 48 on day & DOWN 96 on week. Pop Score 99 - cuts the gap to Stockport by 28 to just 184 for the right to challenge Bolton for lowest Pop Score in GM. POP 27,365)


TRAFFORD 230 - DOWN 39 on day & DOWN 67 on week. Pop Score of 97. Just missed the 28K club until tomorrow (POP 27,994)

SALFORD 230 - DOWN 13 on day & DOWN 144 on week - Pop Score 88* - into the 29K club - first in GM (POP 29,351) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today but highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.


BURY 204 - UP 26 on day & DOWN 78 on week. Pop Score 107 . (POP 27,751)

ROCHDALE 199 - DOWN 12 on day & DOWN 78 on week. Pop Score 90 - into the 28 K club. (POP 28,180)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Slightly disappointing as it is a little higher than hoped. But there is a lot of catch up by recent standards going back to Spring last year. So the number really week to week is closer to last week than it looks. Though it is still up a bit and right now with a day to go it is clear this week's total for the past week at five days will probably when it finishes tomorrow not be down by very much from last week's 982. It is currently with one day to add (a day that last week added 12 onto day 5) on 958 - so likely to be down - but just about. There seem likely to be no sub 100 deaths at 5 days any time soon and JAN 25 - yesterday- added 19 on the first day - last week JAN 18 added just 10.

214 with 33 North West total deaths today

Was last week 199 with 25 North West & Week Before 233 with 41 North West

Regions:-

East 32, London 38, Midlands 38, NE & Yorkshire 43, North West 33, South East 19, South West 11

Most by trust:- London NW 12, Sherwood Forest (Nottingham) 10

North West Trusts:-

6 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale). 4 each in Southport,Stockport, Wigan & Wirral, 3 in Manchester, 2 in Liverpool AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Mid Cheshire,Morecambe, St Helens, Tameside & Warrington

By Age:-

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (15), 60 - 79 (76), 80 PLUS (119)
 
WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 23 last week - big fall here happily

2707 cases - was 2136 last week

22.5% positivity - was 22% last week - so a lot more testing going on

771 patients (Monday - latest) - was 779 last week

19 ventilated (Monday) - was 25 last week

So deaths down, patients & ventilators down but cases up - same pattern here as we are seeing everywhere in this wave
 

GOV UK ARE CHANGING THE REPORTING OF CASES FROM NEXT WEEK TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF HOW MANY HAVE COVID MORE THAN ONCE WHICH MEANS SOME NUMBERS NOT RECORDED NOW WILL BE

THIS IS FOR ENGLAND ONLY​

​

HERE IS WHAT THEY SAY:-​

​

​

Cases definition to include multiple infection episodes from 31 January 2022​

From 31 January 2022, UKHSA will move all COVID-19 case reporting in England to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.
On the dashboard, this means:
  • cases in England by report date will change to the new definition of an episode of infection
  • historical numbers by report date will not be revised, so there will be a step increase in the cumulative numbers of cases on that date
  • specimen date metrics will be revised back to the beginning of the pandemic.
  • the same metric names will still be used
  • new metrics will show first episodes of infection (equivalent to the current case definition) and episodes of reinfection, shown by specimen date only.
UKHSA is working with the devolved administrations to align definitions across the UK.

Additional details​

As the pandemic continues and more variants emerge, it is more likely that people will be reinfected with COVID-19. Contact tracing and health protection work at UKHSA follows up people with a positive test result, whether they were a new case or a case of reinfection. However, surveillance figures only report COVID-19 cases as the date of the first infection, so individuals are only counted once.
UK public health agencies are now updating surveillance data to count infection episodes, including reinfection episodes. Infection episodes will be counted separately if there are at least 90 days between positive test results. Each episode begins with the earliest positive specimen date. If someone has another positive specimen within 90 days of the last one, this is included in the same episode. If they have another positive specimen more than 90 days after the last one, this is counted in a separate episode (a possible reinfection episode).
 
SCOTLAND DATA

33 deaths - was 29 last week

16.1% Positivity - was 16.9% last week

CASES:- Somewhere between 3467 & 4946 - the two numbers given neither of which it will be in Gov UK

Yesterday these numbers were 2276 & 5626 - the Gov UK number later was 3024

So buy your lottery ticket now for what it will be (in the 3000s - maybe!) later.

With England now adding in second and third infections next week (see post above) you might need to clone EInstein to post the numbers from now on.

1389 patients - was 1392 yesterday & 1571 last week

32 ventilated ICU - was 34 yesyerday & 44 last week - but lke everywhere else the good news is that THIS is falling fast and so deaths should hopefully follow suit
 
TODAY'S NORTHERN IRELAND CASES FROM PAST 7 DAYS BY SEX AND BY 5 YEAR AGE BANDS.

AS YOU CAN SEE 5 - 9 YEAR OLDS ARE NOW THE BIGGEST NUMBERS. MOSTLY UNVACCINATED I ASSUME

5489 OUT OF THE 31,233 = 17.6%

AND JUST 721 AGED 70 AND OVER = 2.3%

SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN ARE OVERWHELMINGLY THE REASON FOR THE BIG CASE NUMBERS THAT ARE HAPPENING. VERY FEW OF WHICH WILL EVER INVOLVE HOSPITAL TREATMENT.

HENCE CASES NOT TRANSLATING INTO HOSPITAL NUMBERS AS THEY DID IN PREVIOUS WAVES


1643208117084.png
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

9 deaths - was 6 last week

4383 cases - was 4451 last week

31,233 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 30,808 YESTERDAY & 25,823 LAST WEEK

207 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 213 YESTERDAY & 220 LAST WEEK - GOING DOWN HAPPILY AT LAST

395 patients - was 393 yesterday & 404 last week

17 ventilated - was 18 yesterday & 20 last week - lowest since 26 July
 
346 all settings deaths - was 359 last week

England only 300 V 301 last week

102,292 cases - up 7966 on yesterday from 94,326 & down 5777 from 108,069 last week

The Scotland cases added today btw were 4615 - well up on yesterday when the numbers that Scotland posted were both higher than they posted today but the cases yesterday added by Gov UK were 1600 fewer.

They really need to sort out this needless confusing reporting from Scotland.

Even with the mysterious way that 4615 appears today it is still down on the week from the 4937 Scotland added on Gov UKs version of the riddle me a number game last Wednesday
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Gov UK has chosen not to post it today and I can see why.

England hospitals have clearly made an error on the ventilator data which claims the 'slightly' improbable fact that from yesterday to today the number on ventilators rose from 501 to 12,877!!!

North West alone up from 63 to 2352 in 24 hours which I suspect is to put it mildly ridiculous.

The other data seems accurate though - as in at least it is not obviously ludicrous as surely anyone posting the above numbers would have spotted if they were still in engage brain mode.

I will post that below but Gov UK has probably just given up based on how wrong the ventilator numbers are so they are reluctant to trust the rest.

The numbers that look trustworthy are sadly not great news for the North West with patients going up when the other regions (bar the South West) fell today.

The NW rise meant that though overall patients fell today and droped below 14K for the first time this year the drop was much smaller than last week - just by 140 not 476 as last Wednesday.
 
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Somebody must have told them!

After it has been up for an hour or so it has been corrected. So I will now post all the data below.

The good news is the ventilators are surprise, surprise not up 12,000 today but fell again into the 400s - on 493. It was last this low on 15 July.
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

23 deaths - was 31 last week

CASES - ???? but somewhere between 2276 & 5626 - nearer the lower end maybe but not either.

Was 3507 last week

21.6% positivity - was 20.9% last week so maybe in the 3000s given that - but it is a lottery here now until the Gov UK number is posted later.


1392 patients - was 1435 yesterday & 1546 last week

34 ventilated icu - was 38 yesterday & 42 last week

CASES APART THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS STILL CLEARLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
Click to expand...
Like you I am completely bemused by the Scottish cases - Travelling Tabby for 25th showed 8,022 cases for the 25th both on the total Scotland page and on the UK page (which is 2276 plus 5626 plus (I guess) 100 (that were both pcr and lfd +ve) it is 103 today (26th) [ I haven't worked out how to go back a day on his site!]
His UK distribution looked like this for the 25thScreenshot at 2022-01-26 16-56-14.pngScreenshot at 2022-01-26 17-07-30.png
The 12 week trends raw case numbers for Scotland and the rest of the UK look to be broadly similar although at the moment Scotland and Wales cases per 100,000 look a bit lower than England and particularly N Ireland according to Travelling Tabby (see above bar chart and curves) I'm not sure of his sources nor how he constructs his data.
I don't know if this makes any sense to you?
 
Thank you for the data on Scotland - I hope it will untangle what is happening. Maybe Roubaix will explain it to both of us if not but I just cannot see why they have decided to make it so hard to follow now.

At least post the number Gov UK are going to use alongside what they do post. They presumably must know it. Why give the others and not that one in the otherwise very comprehensive Scotland daily release?
 
26-01-20224,6151,131,668
25-01-20223,0241,127,067
24-01-20222,9561,124,048
23-01-20223,5181,121,094
22-01-20223,4561,117,515
21-01-20223,8901,114,066
20-01-20224,7431,110,186
19-01-20224,9371,105,454


Here is the last week of Scotland cases that have been added daily to Gov UK. None of them match any of the numbers on the Scottish daily numbers and none are anywhere near 8000 as you can see.

There is a big gap in the total cases between Tabby's 1,194,048 for today and Gov UKs 1,131,668.

BUT if you add up the Gov UK cummalitive case numbers on the right they do not go up by the figure they post for the cases that day either! Though they are not far off.

This as you can see is a confusing mess.
 
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England Hospital

Key Numbers

Admissions (Monday) 1593 V 1808 last week & 2180 two weeks ago



NW 252 V 310 V 407

Clear consistent falls elsewhere too:-

London 231 V 235 V 335

Midlands 283 V 407 V 404

NE & Yorkshire 302 V 373 V 456



Rest of data today:-


Patients 13,948 - DOWN by 140 from 14,088 yesterday V 15,742 last week

Last week the Wednesday fall was 476 - today just 140

EVERY region falls today - APART FROM North West & South West - NW rising by the most

FALLS

East DOWN by 30 to 1242, London by 77 to 2685, Midlands by 61 to 2609, NE & Yorkshire by 57 to 2514 AND South East by 15 to 1441


HOWEVER, TWO REGIONS GO UP -

North West by easily the most - 71 - to 2546

& South West by 29 to 911


Ventilators down yet again also by 8 to 493 - down from 501 yesterday V 586 last week

Lowest since mid July

NW 63 - FLAT V 67 last week

South East FLAT on 37 too V 57 last week)

The rest

East UP 2 on 48 V 56 last week, London down 4 on 176 V 197 last week, Midlands down 1 on 90 V 100 last week, NE & Yorkshire down 7 to 63 V 94 last week

South West is UP 2 on 16 V 15 last week
 
1643225716246.png


Todays ever shallowing Zoe Curve which saw what was coming a week ago. And again was right.

Predicted cases 159,486 - up from 154,838 (by 4648) & 150,660 (by 4178) & 147,265 (by 3395)

Escalating rises day to day.


2,200, 890 ongoing cases - down just 13,386 today - the fall was 22.137 yesterday & 30,239 the day before.


Looks to be just a couple of days before the graph and these daily numbers start rising again.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


The order of all 12 UK regions have slightly shifted today but nearly all are now going up. Only North East is falling which meant that it is now SECOND on 2652 / 3396 by a small number - down 38.

That has seen London - who were way clear on top round Christmas, then fell right down to where NW is now - then start rising for over a week - such that today it finally reclaims top spot. Today up even more than yesterday TO 2887 / 3226 - UP 162 - most today


NW today falls to 7th place BUT is still going up as it has been for a few days - though still modestly - from 2084 / 2462 - TO 2110 / 2491. Rises of 18 & 26 in past 2 days.

It looks rather likely NW will follow this track back up more steeply as London too in coming days. Hopefully I am wrong.

Scotland returns to the best in the UK - despite rising more than NW - UP 58 to 1465 / 1835

South West remains the lowest England region in 10th (Wales is next after Scotland in 11th) - but Wales is up 114 today. And South West is up more than the NW too - by 65
 
ZOE NORTH WEST

Allerdale in the Lake District stays highesr in the region - but down 7K on 77,678

Chorley is still high on 61199 - but has fallen 12K in 3 or 4 days

Most of the other non GM boroighs are falling too - into the 30 and 40K range.

Even Cheshire East (46,214) and Cheshire West (37,309 slowly dropping)

Liverpool is fairly flat for a few days round 45K, Wirral has started edging up again on 40,319 - St Helwns the same up on 38,952

But Sefton has dropped belpw 30 K on 29,723



AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - the big scorers are coming down and the small scorers are going up.

1: OLDHAM - doing spectaularly well having been 50K ten days ago now best in GM falling dailty on the lowest GM numbers in 2022 of 11,506

2: SALFORD has done much the same and is now next best on 38,422 - a long way ahead of Oldham though

3: ROCHDALE another falling 10 K in 5 days onto 38,821

4: STOCKPORT - climbs up the table again and up around 1K a day now on 40,044

5: BOLTON - closes in but has staryted edging up too on 40,140

6: TAMESIDE - Has fallen fast like Oldham - 22K in 5 days - on 46,135

7: MANCHESTER has also started edging up again onto 51,358

8: TRAFFORD a bit like Stockport small changes but drifting upward on 52,417

9: BURY is going down fast now and fallen16 K in five days on 60,176

10: WIGAN is up and down but down 5K on the highest ever in GM it set last week staying as highest in GM on 74,642
 
WALES DATA

10 deaths - was 21 last week

3007 cases - was 2768 last week

20.1% positivity - was 15% last week

717 patients (most recent - Tuesday) - was 762 last week

22 ventilated (Tuesday) - was 27 last week

Wales is following the trend in the rest of the UK - more cases and fewer in hospital and falling ventilator numbers. Deaths too now starting to fall here as well as elsewhere.
 
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