Daily Horse Racing \ Tipping thread

[nijinsky's fetlocks]

Best way I can describe his jumping is he gets over them.

Never fell or unseated in his life.

So there is the answer to all the people who say he is a dodgy jumper then, plenty of good jumpers fall and you only have to take a look at one of the best in kauto Star and his last fence horrors over the years but he also hasnt fallen that often.

Plus the national fences are now so built up with loose birch a horse jumping low will more than likely just glide through like a hot knife through butter.

Now I dont fancy the horse for the national myself but it seems some take a great delight in knocking somebody else's horse.

That simply is not true.
My father was a bookmaker,I have been to every track in the country and still go to a couple of meetings every week.
As I have done for over thirty years.
I think this entitles me to an opinion regarding the performance of a given horse.
Nobody,least of all me,takes any great pleasure in criticising,but sometimes I feel owners and connections are,understandably,far too bullish in bigging up their charges.
I don't see that Junior travels well in his races,and I think he has a tendency to idle.
He also seems to hit flat spots,and I doubt his ability to handle large packing fields.
He jumps fences 'flat',which is great on park courses as it saves wasted time in the air,but anyone seeing a National horse in the making here must be looking through rose-tinted binoculars,(and there is another horse who is far from genuine).
I have always wished connections all the very best with Junior,and am quite prepared to be proved wrong.
But I suggest you stop trying to infer that we are somehow all ignorant haters with an agenda.
We are just racegoers with years of experience that entitles us to have our say.

 

[markbmcfc]

Fair enough NF. As you say, we all have and are entitled to our opinions.

Personally, I think you have completely misjudged Junior. I will agree he hits flat spots, but so do some top class horses. Long Run hits them often, and he's a GC winner.

I won't enter into debate as to if he is or isn't a national horse or if he will or won't be involved at the finish. I will however, give a retort to some of the critique of him on here, based on fact rather than opinion.

Junior has 24 NH starts, 24 finishes, 16 times in the front 3, not bad for a ungenuine horse who can't jump. Previous National winners, Dont Push it - 20 starts, 2 falls and 2 PU. Mon Mome 24 starts 3 falls 1 PU. Comply or Die, 19 starts 1 Fall 3 PUs, Silver Birch 20 starts 3 Falls 3 PUs. My point is, horses with jumping issues still win Grand Nationals, and they win them because of sheer guts and determination.

NF - You called Junior lazy and whilst we all have opinions, that just isn't accurate, i'm sorry. He's a gutsy old fella and always digs in when asked. I was surprised how insistent you were yesterday that he wouldn't be anywhere near, I couldn't see how you came to that conclusion. I'm not going to say I told you so, but you have misjudged him in the past. Perhaps you just don't like him, which is fair enough.

As I say, only time will tell if he is out of his depth in the National, he may well be. He's getting unfair and inaccurate stick on here though.

 

[nijinsky's fetlocks]

Fair enough NF. As you say, we all have and are entitled to our opinions.

Personally, I think you have completely misjudged Junior. I will agree he hits flat spots, but so do some top class horses. Long Run hits them often, and he's a GC winner.

I won't enter into debate as to if he is or isn't a national horse or if he will or won't be involved at the finish. I will however, give a retort to some of the critique of him on here, based on fact rather than opinion.

Junior has 24 NH starts, 24 finishes, 16 times in the front 3, not bad for a ungenuine horse who can't jump. Previous National winners, Dont Push it - 20 starts, 2 falls and 2 PU. Mon Mome 24 starts 3 falls 1 PU. Comply or Die, 19 starts 1 Fall 3 PUs, Silver Birch 20 starts 3 Falls 3 PUs. My point is, horses with jumping issues still win Grand Nationals, and they win them because of sheer guts and determination.

NF - You called Junior lazy and whilst we all have opinions, that just isn't accurate, i'm sorry. He's a gutsy old fella and always digs in when asked. I was surprised how insistent you were yesterday that he wouldn't be anywhere near, I couldn't see how you came to that conclusion. I'm not going to say I told you so, but you have misjudged him in the past. Perhaps you just don't like him, which is fair enough.

As I say, only time will tell if he is out of his depth in the National, he may well be. He's getting unfair and inaccurate stick on here though.

Oh dear Mark - I was afraid you would take this personally.
Of course I don't dislike him,and I would have thought better of you than even suggest it.
I don't dislike any horse - I just see their weaknesses.
That is the difference between us,and yes,I have part-owned horses myself in the past.
My opinion,(and that is all it is),is as I see it.
What did he actually beat yesterday?
The two best horses were pulled out of yesterdays race.
Of those that ran,two performed abysmally,and one fell.
You have moaned about the handicap beating him.
But truly great horses defy the handicapper,and you know that.
I could throw a batch of random national stats at you,and it would prove just what you proved.
Precisely nothing.
Again Mark - this is nothing personal against you or Junior - I wish you every success.
But you do yourself no favours on here by turning a debate on the perceived shortcomings of your horse into a childish 'you just don't like him' personality contest.

 

[markbmcfc]

Whoa hang on a minute, this is getting out of hand. I'm not trying to turn this debate into an argument or sling mud, not at all. I have more respect for you as a poster on here than to do that.

I was merely pointing out that you've a history with Junior, you've never fancied him. Even when I put on here exactly what was expected in the Kim Muir you didn't go for it. There is nothing wrong with that, but I do think you've been over critical of him. Regardless of yesterdays result, he has good form on the flat and over the jumps and he's a good horse, you need to give him some credit for his achievements as a dual purpose horse.

If his run was as average as you are making out, he'd be drifting like a woman for the national and instead from the press I have seen, he has come out with praise and been shortened in the betting. I'm not taking anything personally, and I welcome the debate I really do, but I think you have been unfair and i've tried to highlight the areas in why I feel that.

Yes, truly great horses defy the handicapper. Look at Denman's hennessey win with the weight he carried. Junior isn't a truly great horse though! He isn't in that class and hasn't been touted as if he is. He's at a level where giving two stone away is significant. He's just a genuine, honest horse who deserves his shot at the national. I've stuck up for him because some of the accusations, not just from yourself, have been unfair.

What he is capable of in the national we can only speculate about, that's up to him.

 

[nijinsky's fetlocks]

Whoa hang on a minute, this is getting out of hand. I'm not trying to turn this debate into an argument or sling mud, not at all. I have more respect for you as a poster on here than to do that.

I was merely pointing out that you've a history with Junior, you've never fancied him. Even when I put on here exactly what was expected in the Kim Muir you didn't go for it. There is nothing wrong with that, but I do think you've been over critical of him. Regardless of yesterdays result, he has good form on the flat and over the jumps and he's a good horse, you need to give him some credit for his achievements as a dual purpose horse.

If his run was as average as you are making out, he'd be drifting like a woman for the national and instead from the press I have seen, he has come out with praise and been shortened in the betting. I'm not taking anything personally, and I welcome the debate I really do, but I think you have been unfair and i've tried to highlight the areas in why I feel that.

Yes, truly great horses defy the handicapper. Look at Denman's hennessey win with the weight he carried. Junior isn't a truly great horse though! He isn't in that class and hasn't been touted as if he is. He's at a level where giving two stone away is significant. He's just a genuine, honest horse who deserves his shot at the national. I've stuck up for him because some of the accusations, not just from yourself, have been unfair.

What he is capable of in the national we can only speculate about, that's up to him.

But Mark there is a world of difference between fancying Junior to win a given race and having an agenda against him for no good reason.
I didn't expect him to win the Kim Muir,and he proved me wrong in spectacular style.
Me being wrong about a horse is hardly a first,and he may well do so again in the National.
For you and all connections I hope he aquits himself well at Aintree,and comes back safe and sound.
If he wins,I will grudgingly buy you a pint,in fact fuck it - you can buy me one out of your winnings!

 

[markbmcfc]

Ha ha, you have yourself a date their mate. :)

 

[bennyblue]

now the junior score is settled, so then lads what about ballabriggs for back to back wins ?

 

[blumoon]

now the junior score is settled, so then lads what about ballabriggs for back to back wins ?

No.....Treacle will be winning the national. :-)

 

[LeeOnePen]

now the junior score is settled, so then lads what about ballabriggs for back to back wins ?

No chance. Here's a stat for you; the last national winning horse to win a race -any race -after the success was Bindaree, ten years ago. Winning a national is a career ender (not that it's a bad way to go). I was in the winners enclosure at aintree last year and have never seen a more tired looking horse come in, a particularly hard race given the heat. Add all that to the revised mark, and trust me Ballabriggs is done.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Wont be backing any horse over 11 stone 1 for the national only 1 has seen the job through in nearly 40 years...

They dont carry big weights round aintree and win.