markbmcfc
Well-Known Member
bluesmith said:What the lowest odds you would back him?markbmcfc said:I usually PM this to a select few but i'll stick it on here.
My horse, Captain Kolo runs tomorrow at Carlisle in the 4.30.
As some of you know, he's been frustrating and expensive to follow and hasnt lived up to the promise as a 2yo.
This ownership game is all about trial and error and every race is a learning curve until you find something that clicks. We've tried Kolo at 5f and 6f and he seems to have better form over 6f this year but he still isnt performing to the standard he does at home. We're stepping him up to 7f tomorrow, just short of. I told a few of you not to back him until I told you to. I wouldnt say im tipping him, but I will say is IF 7f is the answer, he should win tomorrow. He has a good draw, ground should suit goes well for Kelly Harrison and it looks a winable race.
His last run over 6f he came 2nd, was a little outpaced with 2f left and then stayed on in the last furlong and the winner looked in trouble but Kolo couldnt get there. Another furlong may well be the answer.
That said, its just as possible its too far and he needs dropping back to 6 and he runs out of steam with a furlong left.
No idea what price he will be, but if theres value in the odds, its worth a cheeky bet, just in case. I wouldnt back him at a short price.
Just had a look at the field, you might have bumped into one on upward curve, Watts up son has been rated 79 and dropped right down before having a couple of good runs the apprentice (Hart) effectively puts it at 56 after taking his 7 claim off. Hart has had 6 rides in the last two weeks - 2 wins 2 seconds and a 3rd. Reverse Forecast?
On the basis of the ratings, I wouldnt say he is on an upward curve. He was racing beyond his level and has dropped down to a basement mark, but still hasnt won and has been 2nd and 3rd to horses rated in the late forties and early 50's. Whilst he may be running well in that grade, this is a much tougher task. If he wins he must be 10-12lb better than his rating. If he'd won the two races by a few lengths, i'd fully agree with you.
Does have a talented apprentice on him tho.