Tolmie is just like the rest of us in that he makes educated guesses and some of them turn out to be true. I trust the bookies a lot more as they aggregate more inside sources and quantify the chances of it happening with data.
At 3/10, this transfer seems to be almost certain. It's a great signing, Alves was arguably the best right wing-back in the world this season. People doubting that he could adapt to the CL clearly didn't watch Juventus this season — his pace, hard tackling and composure are all excellent. Not only would he improve our team instantly, he'd provide winning experience and leadership to the younger players. I've read that we're still interested in Walker, so it's not like we're just giving up on solving the position for the long term. Getting a world-class full-back who Pep knows and trusts for as little as 5m is an obviously good decision.