Donald Trump

Dax777 said:
Perfectly valid conclusion. I personally find Trump to be a lesser evil of the 2.

When you listen to Harris now she sounds like an airhead. But she can't be this dumb. So the only conclusion one can reach is that she doesn't understand or believe most of what she is saying.

If you want to see an intelligent Kamala, simply go back to her 2018/2019 interviews. Sure she is no Obama, but she is a normal Politician when espousing far left ideas she seems to believe in andthat play beautifully in California but sucks everywhere else.

So instead, she bungles up one centrist idea after the other as she pretends she believes any of it. She's just not my cup of tea. And I really dislike her VP. Not that I'd have voted for her if she has picked a better one, but I clearly dislike Walz. And I know Kamala is a phony.
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You need medical help you really do.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
This will be be what Musk is trying to divert attention from.

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This is good. The polls in the US are unreliable (to put it lightly). Siena College has statistically the best record of any pollster. Until recently they actually had Trump leading which I found disturbing. Not because I thought Trump would win the popular vote (I am not convinced there’s a path for him to win that even in a worst case scenario), but because even if it’s close the electoral college is likely to fall in his favour.

Harris needs to not only win, but win well and in the right places. The problem is that national vote share doesn’t translate to victory. Biden won the vote share by 4.5pp and the margin of victory was still too close for comfort. I think anything less than 3 points margin is risking a loss.

Either that or she somehow wins Texas or Florida. Neither are impossible but both very unlikely. I think Texas will be a lot closer than anybody is predicting this year (<3% in it but that’s just speculation based on demographic shifts).
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
This is good. The polls in the US are unreliable (to put it lightly). Siena College has statistically the best record of any pollster. Until recently they actually had Trump leading which I found disturbing. Not because I thought Trump would win the popular vote (I am not convinced there’s a path for him to win that even in a worst case scenario), but because even if it’s close the electoral college is likely to fall in his favour.

Harris needs to not only win, but win well and in the right places. The problem is that national vote share doesn’t translate to victory. Biden won the vote share by 4.5pp and the margin of victory was still too close for comfort. I think anything less than 3 points margin is risking a loss.

Either that or she somehow wins Texas or Florida. Neither are impossible but both very unlikely. I think Texas will be a lot closer than anybody is predicting this year (<3% in it but that’s just speculation based on demographic shifts).
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I think you are spot on. Any reliable polka are either too close to call or have Harris slightly ahead (popular vote). I'm not sure there are many swing voters to be had, but I do wonder if there are life long republicans who will through gritted teeth be voting democrat in the privacy of the ballot box.
 
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