Donald Trump

[west didsblue]

Hopefully the polls and bookies pointing to an increased chance of Trump winning will just mobilise people to vote against him and not take it for granted he’s going to lose.

 

[KS55]

O ye of little faith; Harris will win.

 

[grunge]

You need to know who owns and runs 538 and what polls he includes and you’ll see why his site is bollocks and wishful thinking. Fuck Nate.

Fair play, his site does match the likes of the FT which puts it at 1.6 points ahead for Harris mind you so its not too far off. its pretty natural that polls narrow towards the election date from what i've seen.

Trump or Harris: Who’s ahead in the polls?

Tracking the polls in every state and possible paths to electoral college victory for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

ig.ft.com

 

[Elbow beards]

Really anyone believing these recent Trump surrogate polls needs to give their heads a wobble. The real data, that is registration and early voting suggests that Trump is toast, which maybe one reason he's sped off to Florida where Harris now has the "big Mo"
But of course the corporate media is desperate for a race and to keep the Trump clown show going in order to keep the ad men intersted.

Is early votes and indication that they're voting for Harris?

 

[bluenova]

You need to know who owns and runs 538 and what polls he includes and you’ll see why his site is bollocks and wishful thinking. Fuck Nate.

I don't think Nate Silver has any involvement with 538 any more. He criticised them a while back for being too positive towards Biden (obviously before Biden stepped down).

Agree that the US polls do have caveats compared to the UK, as the rules they follow aren't as strict. There was some "amusing" research a while back, where most polling companies said they were ethical, but they thought the other polling companies weren't :)

 

[bluenova]

Fair play, his site does match the likes of the FT which puts it at 1.6 points ahead for Harris mind you so its not too far off. its pretty natural that polls narrow towards the election date from what i've seen.

Trump or Harris: Who’s ahead in the polls?

Tracking the polls in every state and possible paths to electoral college victory for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

ig.ft.com

You need to be careful following the overall lead in the US. Trump and George W. Bush, both won their first terms even though they got less votes. Trump was more than 2% behind when he won last time.

It all comes down to a handful of swing states, and they're all really close. At the moment the FT link you gave has almost all of the close races, going to Trump.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

 

[bluenova]

Is early votes and indication that they're voting for Harris?

Bizarrely, voters in the US are "registered" as Democrat/Republican/independent, and with early voting, the numbers of each are released as they vote. So, they know in which areas of the country people are voting, and they know if they are registered to a particular party.

However, plenty of registered voters will vote for the other party, and there are so many variables, that it's almost impossible to draw conclusions. Some might say that due to potential voter suppression on the day, Democrats will vote early - so if there are more of them, it means nothing. There's an argument that the Republicans have pushed early voting more than ever before, which then negates that. And of course, the last election was during Covid, so comparisons are very difficult, as a lot of people voted in different ways, often for political reasons.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

One thing has really peaked my interest in the last few days. Harris is going to campaign in Texas until Friday. That’s just a little over one week before the election at a time when you really have to be optimising your time in battleground states. Somebody was on Bloomberg last night saying how they thought that was an enormous waste of resources in the days leading up to the election.

But I think that is an incredibly naive perspective. These are seasoned campaigners, they know as well as we do the importance of being of being in the right states in the lead up to the election. Polls currently have Harris 5-6% behind Trump in the state. Combine this event with the fact that Dems have not really been publishing any partisan polls recently, there’s a complete dearth of polls paid for by the Dems in the public domain but there’s a tonne paid for by the GOP. The Republicans have practically flooded 538 with partisan polls.

What does that tell you? Interesting, isn’t it?