Donald Trump

[SkyBlueFlux]

I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).

You beat me to this observation by 10 minutes.

 

[SWP's back]

Well, I'm all ears for what others think is the most reliable polling site.

538 seems pretty consistent with others I've seen, and all seem to show a slide towards Trump over the last few weeks, and basically too close to call.

Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.

Punk. Chew. Ate. Shun. ?????

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).

I've suggested a few times she go to Florida and Texas. In Texas the Allred v Cruz fight is the obvious reason. But I'd suggest doing day after day in the same swing states is not news. If she did Penn and Georgia on alternating days for a week she could attend loads of events but it gets boring and loses impact.

Spend one day in Texas and everyone starts to wonder is she can win in Texas, it way more impact full than another day in Penn. Same with Florida, gets more coverage and puts the opposition on the back foot.

Campaign events don't directly move the dial. They generate news coverage and vibes and the coverage is what drives peoples views and behaviours.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

 

[west didsblue]

Punk. Chew. Ate. Shun. ?????

Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV

 

[SWP's back]

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

Have done. Will do.

You may have only been in this thread ten minutes but there are plenty that know I’ve repeatedly put my money where my mouth with on votes against Trump since 2018. Thankfully.

 

[SWP's back]

This doesn’t happen to someone that’s about to smash the election.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.

Yeah, I'm not arguing polls are precise predictors