Logic tells me Trump will lose. I look at the percentage he secured in 2016 and 2020 and cannot see how he will add incremental voters to that. People who weren’t in the cult back then, are extremely unlikely to have been converted since.
Add into the mix those who did vote for him previously, genuinely appalled at his behaviour after his defeat - and the demographic factors you’ve highlighted and logic points to a fairly comprehensive victory for Biden.
The problems are the consequences are so catastrophic, and the stakes so high, that any prospect of Trump winning causes disproportionate angst amongst all right thinking people.
Add into the mix, something unpredictable and seismic happening to tip the balance towards Trump, and you have a breeding ground for anxiety.
Plus, for me at least, a Biden victory is unlikely to represent a decisive resolution. The circus will continue well after November.