Donald Trump

[Phil1]

>> Nobody is discounting it because, err, America.
I couldn't disagree more. Several posters on this forum think that it's virtually impossible for Trump to win in 2024 - whereas it's likely going to be pretty goddamn close either way.

I guess the optimist in me hopes that the US isn’t the dumbest nation on earth and will rightly give him a big swerve but the track record isn’t great.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Just so.

Trump may well win the Presidency in 2024 - in 2016 it was "impossible" that Trump could win the election - but he did win, in spite of the "Access Hollywood" revelations.

Anyone thinking that Trump cannot possibly win the 2024 election is either ignorant of what happened in 2016 or is caught up in an echo chamber of pollyanna denialism.

Who in this thread is arguing Trump cannot possibly win the 2024 election?

Nothing about my post regarding polling bias (nor anything I have ever written in this thread) was suggesting that.

 

[SWP's back]

What's that writer's take on space lasers?

You say that but it’s far more likely than Trump actually being more popular than Biden. The polls have been wrong on every cycle post 2020.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I guess the optimist in me hopes that the US isn’t the dumbest nation on earth and will rightly give him a big swerve but the track record isn’t great.

Cheers.

"Dumbest nation" though - is, I think, a misreading of contemporary American politics. 30% of so of the voting populace is die-hard pro-Trump, no matter what. From there, many Republicans watch Fox News and other right-leaning outlets almost exclusively. They're bound to always vote Republican, no matter what, and will excuse any moral mis-steps by Trump. Thus, Trump locks up a substantial portion of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, Democrats lock up the popular vote in numerous states.

What then transpires, is that the next US President is decided by a handful of swing states - that could vote either way. Due to state law and to the electoral college system, these swing states tend to (always?) vote all of their delegates 100% to whomever wins their single state election results - votes in such states are not proportionally awarded.

For example, say in State X with 10 electoral college votes, Trump wins the election in State X, 51% to 49%. In such a State, all 10 electoral college delegates must, by law, vote for Trump, even though 49% of the state voted for Biden.

This is why the electoral college system is broken and needs to be replaced - e.g., the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

 

[SWP's back]

I admire your optimism, but from experience I'm refusing to believe it's a done deal that Biden will beat Trump in November. Maybe in a fair fight, but Trump fights dirty. He is the perfect example of a turd that won't flush.

Biden’s not even started yet and current has 3x the cash on hand in his campaign.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

You say that but it’s far more likely than Trump actually being more popular than Biden. The polls have been wrong on every cycle post 2020.

So... you believe that pollsters are intentionally slanting their results for Trump because such an outcome will prove more profitable?

 

[SWP's back]

Just so.

Trump may well win the Presidency in 2024 - in 2016 it was "impossible" that Trump could win the election - but he did win, in spite of the "Access Hollywood" revelations.

Anyone thinking that Trump cannot possibly win the 2024 election is either ignorant of what happened in 2016 or is caught up in an echo chamber of pollyanna denialism.

Or has studied the demographics since 2020, the constant polling errors, the economy and believes there is absolutely zero good news for Trump in any of the above.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

>> Nobody is discounting it because, err, America.
I couldn't disagree more. Several posters on this thread think that it's virtually impossible for Trump to win in 2024 - whereas it's likely going to be pretty goddamn close either way.

Once again, this appears to be hyperbole. You've had this called out to you several times politely; kindly stop putting words in other posters' mouths.

 

[SWP's back]

So... you believe that pollsters are intentionally slanting their results for Trump because such an outcome will prove more profitable?

No, I said it’s more believable than the polls being accurate.

 

[Phil1]

Cheers.

"Dumbest nation" though - is, I think, a misreading of contemporary American politics. 30% of so of the voting populace is die-hard pro-Trump, no matter what. From there, many Republicans watch Fox News and other right-leaning outlets almost exclusively. They're bound to always vote Republican, no matter what, and will excuse any moral mis-steps by Trump. Thus, Trump locks up a substantial portion of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, Democrats lock up the popular vote in numerous states.

What then transpires, is that the next US President is decided by a handful of swing states - that could vote either way. Due to state law and to the electoral college system, these swing states tend to (always?) vote all of their delegates 100% to whomever wins their single state election results - votes in such states are not proportionally awarded.

For example, say in State X with 10 electoral college votes, Trump wins the election in State X, 51% to 49%. In such a State, all 10 electoral college delegates must, by law, vote for Trump, even though 49% of the state voted for Biden.

This is why the electoral college system is broken and needs to be replaced - e.g., the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

Yeah, reading that hasn’t changed my mind.
The fact the narcissistic, sociopathic, racist misogynist is in the race tells its own story and those are his fucking plus points.