Donald Trump

My girlfriend is mates with a well-known and respected male news broadcaster, whose judgement on matters of politics I would always respect, who said over lunch when they met up earlier this week that it’s inevitable that Trump will win, which both surprised and troubled me.

I simply can’t see it myself, just because it would require him to gain votes from 2020, but what the fuck do I know?

Absolutely insane, if true.
There is no way anyone can be certain of the outcome. The polls have Trump up, but polls have been all over the shop in recent elections. Every other indicator or precedent you might look at suggests Biden should win this no problem. Then there are the things with no precedent - the Trump conviction (the sentence we dont yet no, jail or community service, the abortion issue being on the ballot, the massive lack of funding for the GOP).

And the most significant issue that could shift the dial is going to be the perceived health of the candidates going in to the election. Both are in decline, either one could literally drop dead.

So there has never been less certainty over who will win.
 
My girlfriend is mates with a well-known and respected male news broadcaster, whose judgement on matters of politics I would always respect, who said over lunch when they met up earlier this week that it’s inevitable that Trump will win, which both surprised and troubled me.

I simply can’t see it myself, just because it would require him to gain votes from 2020, but what the fuck do I know?

Absolutely insane, if true.
In several recent special elections, Maga candidates have done spectacularly badly.
 
In several recent special elections, Maga candidates have done spectacularly badly.
I was just reading about Ohio where a safe GOP seat just swung 20pts to Democrats. Not enough to win but shows what having zero ground campaign can do for your voter turnout.

Maga would say it will be different when Trumo is on the ballot but it's yet more evidence that polls and historic data could be way off.
 
The Israel situation will definitely cost Biden votes, but surely not so many as won’t vote for Trump who did before January 6th and his conviction.
Don't kid yourself. Someone sending Billions of American tax payers dollars in weopens to blow up thousands of children is going to piss a shit load of folk off. With the younger voters right at the front. If Biden gets beat which is looking likely this will be the sole reason.
 

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