I meant 35k - the number of people in Witney that voted for Cameron.
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EU referendum
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I meant 35k - the number of people in Witney that voted for Cameron.
Fair comment, but the two are inextricably linked.
You quote GBP 9bn, and I've repeatedly posted that every academic paper I've read puts the externalities as much higher than the GBP 9bn p/a. In essence, you're saying the tangible net outflow is worth reocuping, even if that GBP 9bn is an investment that brings benefits into the UK? Trade cannot be a side-show if you take this issue seriously, nor can FDI, nor can the tax garnered from the youthful, flexible workforce that the EU offers.
Also, if you think immigration will recede by any tangible amount following brexit, you're kidding yourself, you really are.
Finally, our elected officials do have the power to influecne legislation, cast vetos, as you can see from the clobbering Johnson got by the treasury select committee, the out campaign basically functions on half truths and sometimes downright lies, looking at Hannan in particular. Maybe if we stopped voting in arseholes like farage as MEPs, we'd actually have seen some level of democracy, rather than becoming a laughing stock on a european wide stage.
I wish I had the energy to continue these debates. Maybe its because I've had a couple, but after posting two posts in this thread with some actual analysis and have them roundly ignored, its clear that most here don't have any appetite for debate whatsoever (though I think you don't necessarily fall into this campp). Its all just so tedious, the whole thing.
I honestly had some sympathy with the out campaign previously. I could understand some of their concerns, and felt that being a driving force in europe would help to facilitate the change internally. But this thread is so tiresome with people just popping up, spewing propoganda that is questionable at best, and ignoring any type of genuine analysis. I'm sure its both ways to an extent, but it troubles me. Theres a couple of prats in particular who frequent this thread, and I'm sure the nuances fly some distance above their heads.
Any how, happy easter all!
It isn't that I don't care about trade, it's that I simply don't believe the predictions of economic disaster we're hearing. Here's the thing, every statistic I've seen bandied about by the pro EU side strikes me as being highly dubious. 3 million jobs depend on our membership of the EU. Oh really? What does that statistic actually mean? If we leave the EU we will no longer trade with the EU? A country does not have to have a trade agreement with the EU to trade with the EU. In fact the EUs largest international trading partners were China, the US and Russia, none of which have a trade agreement with the EU. We also have a massive trade deficit with the EU and the idea that they would jeopordise these crucial exports to the UK at a time when the Eurozone is in crisis is laughable. Actually less than 15% of our economy and falling, is accounted for by UK exports to the EU, yet 100% of our economy is subject to EU regulation. In terms of trade an EU exit would allow us to reactivate our seat on the WTO, and release our businesses from the burden of EU regulation. All of our trade agreements are currently negotiated by the EU taking into account the interests of 28 seperate and disparate nations, an exit would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals with the best interests of this nation at their heart. But we would lose our ability to influence the EU I hear you cry. Well since records began in 1996 we have tried to block proposals from the EU commission on 72 occasions. Care to hazard a guess how many times we've been successful? Answer starts with a Z and ends with an O.
gordondaviesmoustache
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Ok fair enough. Apologies :-)I meant 35k - the number of people in Witney that voted for Cameron.
Chancy Termites
Well-Known Member
It isn't that I don't care about trade, it's that I simply don't believe the predictions of economic disaster we're hearing. Here's the thing, every statistic I've seen bandied about by the pro EU side strikes me as being highly dubious. 3 million jobs depend on our membership of the EU. Oh really? What does that statistic actually mean? If we leave the EU we will no longer trade with the EU? A country does not have to have a trade agreement with the EU to trade with the EU. In fact the EUs largest international trading partners were China, the US and Russia, none of which have a trade agreement with the EU. We also have a massive trade deficit with the EU and the idea that they would jeopordise these crucial exports to the UK at a time when the Eurozone is in crisis is laughable. Actually less than 15% of our economy and falling, is accounted for by UK exports to the EU, yet 100% of our economy is subject to EU regulation. In terms of trade an EU exit would allow us to reactivate our seat on the WTO, and release our businesses from the burden of EU regulation. All of our trade agreements are currently negotiated by the EU taking into account the interests of 28 seperate and disparate nations, an exit would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals with the best interests of this nation at their heart. But we would lose our ability to influence the EU I hear you cry. Well since records began in 1996 we have tried to block proposals from the EU commission on 72 occasions. Care to hazard a guess how many times we've been successful? Answer starts with a Z and ends with an O.
Even Nick Clegg admitted the 3 million jobs figure was fantasy.
Even Nick Clegg admitted the 3 million jobs figure was fantasy.
blueish swede
Well-Known Member
He gets owned at the end, doesn't he! His numbers don't add up and he can't explain it. Then he just digs deeper and deeper "Industries will have to get themselves into shape, just like we did with the steel industry and the coal industry in the 80s".
The funniest bit though is at 27:10 -"...help from the outside by showing them how things can be run. You know, this is the way to run a railroad". Comedy Gold.
The funniest bit though is at 27:10 -"...help from the outside by showing them how things can be run. You know, this is the way to run a railroad". Comedy Gold.
JULES
Well-Known Member
Monday 21 March will go down as a seminal moment in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. It was the day the CBI conceded defeat in the economic argument.
From this point forward, following the publication of a study it commissioned from PwC, the business group will have to explain why economic growth will be higher in the long term if we leave the EU. It’s an admission that higher costs through taxes and regulatory compliance make us less competitive than we should be.
Read more: Poll finds growing support for a Brexit - but Remain retains lead
PwC offered two alternative scenarios compared to remaining in the EU: the first with a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and the second with World Trade Organisation rules governing our trade. Under both these scenarios, UK growth was projected to be higher after 2020 than if Britain remained in the EU. The area of dispute is what would happen between now and 2020, with PwC arguing that there would be pain.
But this is unnecessarily pessimistic. Leaving the EU requires that we follow Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, meaning we would continue to have full access to the Single Market in the two years stipulated for negotiating our disentanglement. We already have all the necessary regulations so should not expect trade to be disrupted.
Read more: Donald threat trumps Brexit, fund manager tells investors
We also need to remember that, following Brexit, the UK saves £12bn net per annum in EU membership fees and can tailor regulation to meet its needs. This would be a spur to significant growth. Open Europe has calculated that the most wasteful 100 EU regulations cost over £33bn each year and there are thousands of others on top of that. These could be greatly reduced or simplified, helping small businesses, job creation and the consumer.
Separate studies by academics such as professors Patrick Minford and Tim Congdon, as well as a UK Treasury cost-benefit analysis commissioned by Gordon Brown, have all shown the EU is a drag on UK economic growth in a range from 4 to 12 per cent.
Read more: Stoke City owner warns Brexit would damage football
Add to this the admission by chairman of the remain side, Lord Rose, that wages would rise once outside the EU and we see the economic case for staying in is collapsing.
People have every right to be concerned about their jobs and future prospects, but the reason Project Fear is not working is because the scaremongers got it wrong before. It was the CBI, the big corporates and the establishment politicians that told us we could not survive if we did not join the euro.
Now, with cheerful repetition, every week international bodies are declaring that they’re putting their faith in the UK. Last week we had the cosmetics company Avon announcing that, after 130 years, it would be moving its HQ from New York to Britain rather than Paris, while at the weekend Boeing broke the news that its European HQ would be in the UK not Germany.
Read more: Will leaving the EU lead to more sovereignty for the UK?
We also had the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund say it would be investing at least as much in the UK following Brexit, while some 70 per cent of chief financial officers surveyed world-wide said they believed Brexit would make no difference to their business plans.
We even find that the Pentagon is to locate its new European Intelligence Centre in Northamptonshire rather than the Azores, belying the nonsense that our security will be at risk if we leave the EU.
The scare stories about doing business, international investment, access to markets, recruitment of talent and security are all being shown by real decision-makers to be based on false assumptions. The CBI knows this and from now on will be in retreat
From this point forward, following the publication of a study it commissioned from PwC, the business group will have to explain why economic growth will be higher in the long term if we leave the EU. It’s an admission that higher costs through taxes and regulatory compliance make us less competitive than we should be.
Read more: Poll finds growing support for a Brexit - but Remain retains lead
PwC offered two alternative scenarios compared to remaining in the EU: the first with a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and the second with World Trade Organisation rules governing our trade. Under both these scenarios, UK growth was projected to be higher after 2020 than if Britain remained in the EU. The area of dispute is what would happen between now and 2020, with PwC arguing that there would be pain.
But this is unnecessarily pessimistic. Leaving the EU requires that we follow Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, meaning we would continue to have full access to the Single Market in the two years stipulated for negotiating our disentanglement. We already have all the necessary regulations so should not expect trade to be disrupted.
Read more: Donald threat trumps Brexit, fund manager tells investors
We also need to remember that, following Brexit, the UK saves £12bn net per annum in EU membership fees and can tailor regulation to meet its needs. This would be a spur to significant growth. Open Europe has calculated that the most wasteful 100 EU regulations cost over £33bn each year and there are thousands of others on top of that. These could be greatly reduced or simplified, helping small businesses, job creation and the consumer.
Separate studies by academics such as professors Patrick Minford and Tim Congdon, as well as a UK Treasury cost-benefit analysis commissioned by Gordon Brown, have all shown the EU is a drag on UK economic growth in a range from 4 to 12 per cent.
Read more: Stoke City owner warns Brexit would damage football
Add to this the admission by chairman of the remain side, Lord Rose, that wages would rise once outside the EU and we see the economic case for staying in is collapsing.
People have every right to be concerned about their jobs and future prospects, but the reason Project Fear is not working is because the scaremongers got it wrong before. It was the CBI, the big corporates and the establishment politicians that told us we could not survive if we did not join the euro.
Now, with cheerful repetition, every week international bodies are declaring that they’re putting their faith in the UK. Last week we had the cosmetics company Avon announcing that, after 130 years, it would be moving its HQ from New York to Britain rather than Paris, while at the weekend Boeing broke the news that its European HQ would be in the UK not Germany.
Read more: Will leaving the EU lead to more sovereignty for the UK?
We also had the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund say it would be investing at least as much in the UK following Brexit, while some 70 per cent of chief financial officers surveyed world-wide said they believed Brexit would make no difference to their business plans.
We even find that the Pentagon is to locate its new European Intelligence Centre in Northamptonshire rather than the Azores, belying the nonsense that our security will be at risk if we leave the EU.
The scare stories about doing business, international investment, access to markets, recruitment of talent and security are all being shown by real decision-makers to be based on false assumptions. The CBI knows this and from now on will be in retreat
EalingBlue2
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So we sort our industries out by closing them and having mass unemployment and then take on s back seat driver role lolHe gets owned at the end, doesn't he! His numbers don't add up and he can't explain it. Then he just digs deeper and deeper "Industries will have to get themselves into shape, just like we did with the steel industry and the coal industry in the 80s".
The funniest bit though is at 27:10 -"...help from the outside by showing them how things can be run. You know, this is the way to run a railroad". Comedy Gold.
Further Empowering the European Union.
Beyond crushing sovereignty, the crisis is also advancing assaults on liberty. Especially useful to the assault on individual freedoms has been the threat of terrorism posed by the influx of millions of Muslims, at least some of whom are and will be radicalized.
ISIS has been boasting that its operatives are among the refugees, and U.S. presidential contender Ben Carson even said it would be “jihadist malpractice” not to send terrorists into the West among the immigrants. He is right, of course, as the Paris attacks last year showed. Now, the jihadists will be used as the justification to wage war on liberty.
“I will ask the governments to cooperate, to recognize that sovereignty is an illusion — that sovereignty is an absolute illusion that has to be put behind us,” declared former Goldman Sachs chairman Peter Sutherland, an ex-member of the Bilderberg Steering Committee who currently “serves” as the UN special representative of the secretary-general for international migration. “The days of hiding behind borders and fences are long gone. We have to work together and cooperate together to make a better world. And that means taking on some of the old shibboleths, taking on some of the old historic memories and images of our own country and recognizing that we’re part of humankind.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-24/refugee-crisis-using-chaos-build-power
Beyond crushing sovereignty, the crisis is also advancing assaults on liberty. Especially useful to the assault on individual freedoms has been the threat of terrorism posed by the influx of millions of Muslims, at least some of whom are and will be radicalized.
ISIS has been boasting that its operatives are among the refugees, and U.S. presidential contender Ben Carson even said it would be “jihadist malpractice” not to send terrorists into the West among the immigrants. He is right, of course, as the Paris attacks last year showed. Now, the jihadists will be used as the justification to wage war on liberty.
“I will ask the governments to cooperate, to recognize that sovereignty is an illusion — that sovereignty is an absolute illusion that has to be put behind us,” declared former Goldman Sachs chairman Peter Sutherland, an ex-member of the Bilderberg Steering Committee who currently “serves” as the UN special representative of the secretary-general for international migration. “The days of hiding behind borders and fences are long gone. We have to work together and cooperate together to make a better world. And that means taking on some of the old shibboleths, taking on some of the old historic memories and images of our own country and recognizing that we’re part of humankind.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-24/refugee-crisis-using-chaos-build-power
aguero93:20
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He is right, of course, as the Paris attacks last year showed.
Yep, those second generation French-Algerians never would have been born in France and Belgium in the 80s and 90s if only we'd done the right thing and shut the borders in 2013.
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