EU referendum

[Balti]

Brilliant album that

too true mate

 

[ali benarbia's studs]

get the feck out....... when hilary and obama are pushing it you know something smells rotten!!!

personally i love if the uk dropped out momentarily, my love of the euro union is not what it used to be. i d still love each nation to look after its own as most european nations have a long history and i will be proud if they dont want to lose that.

 

[Chippy_boy]

There's a lot in what you say here although it may actually be quite close run. Cameron's cynicism could backfire on him for two reasons: (a) his shit attempt at negotiations, and b) Boris is out of the bottle.

It might, but I think there's similarities with general elections here. In general elections, the opposition party is often ahead in the polls in the run up to the election, but always (not often, always) it swings back towards the incumbents in the election itself. Whether the opposition get in or not depends on how big their lead was. The British electorate are a risk averse, conservative (small c) bunch who intrinsically favour what they know over what they do not.

Here, "staying in" is the incumbent. The Outers have to paint a vision of what Out looks like that is so sttractive, so compelling that it persuades people that the step into the unknown is worth the risk. They've so far completely failed to do that, and they aren't even ahead in the polls, let alone have the big lead they would need to carry it over to a victory. Unless there's some enormous gaff by the Inners, or some huge ray of inspiration not seen thus far from the Outers, the Outers are cruising towards a very inevitable defeat.

I think the Remain majority is looking to be reasonably substantial based on it being quite close at the moment.

 

[sir baconface]

It might, but I think there's similarities with general elections here. In general elections, the opposition party is often ahead in the polls in the run up to the election, but always (not often, always) it swings back towards the incumbents in the election itself. Whether the opposition get in or not depends on how big their lead was. The British electorate are a risk averse, conservative (small c) bunch who intrinsically favour what they know over what they do not.

Here, "staying in" is the incumbent. The Outers have to paint a vision of what Out looks like that is so sttractive, so compelling that it persuades people that the step into the unknown is worth the risk. They've so far completely failed to do that, and they aren't even ahead in the polls, let alone have the big lead they would need to carry it over to a victory. Unless there's some enormous gaff by the Inners, or some huge ray of inspiration not seen thus far from the Outers, the Outers are cruising towards a very inevitable defeat.

I think the Remain majority is looking to be reasonably substantial based on it being quite close at the moment.

Yes, chippy. Although I'm an outer, I accept that position does look more risky and fully expect a sizeable swing at the last minute to "the devil we know". It's human nature. That said, I think the no campaign will have been strong enough to bloody Cameron's nose.

 

[hgblue]

It might, but I think there's similarities with general elections here. In general elections, the opposition party is often ahead in the polls in the run up to the election, but always (not often, always) it swings back towards the incumbents in the election itself. Whether the opposition get in or not depends on how big their lead was. The British electorate are a risk averse, conservative (small c) bunch who intrinsically favour what they know over what they do not.

Here, "staying in" is the incumbent. The Outers have to paint a vision of what Out looks like that is so sttractive, so compelling that it persuades people that the step into the unknown is worth the risk. They've so far completely failed to do that, and they aren't even ahead in the polls, let alone have the big lead they would need to carry it over to a victory. Unless there's some enormous gaff by the Inners, or some huge ray of inspiration not seen thus far from the Outers, the Outers are cruising towards a very inevitable defeat.

I think the Remain majority is looking to be reasonably substantial based on it being quite close at the moment.

In a way, the result is quite secondary to me, because I strongly believe that the sovereignty that's been given away already and the more that is to come doesn't belong to politicians, so a referendum was necessary to legitimise this transfer of power. If we do vote to remain this would represent a huge opportunity wasted as far as I'm concerned, but I will console myself with the fact that the people of this country have spoken and that's democracy.

 

[sir baconface]

In a way, the result is quite secondary to me, because I strongly believe that the sovereignty that's been given away already and the more that is to come doesn't belong to politicians, so a referendum was necessary to legitimise this transfer of power. If we do vote to remain this would represent a huge opportunity wasted as far as I'm concerned, but I will console myself with the fact that the people of this country have spoken and that's democracy.

Great post. The biggest cause of resentment is what the politicians have done by stealth.

 

[EalingBlue2]

In a way, the result is quite secondary to me, because I strongly believe that the sovereignty that's been given away already and the more that is to come doesn't belong to politicians, so a referendum was necessary to legitimise this transfer of power. If we do vote to remain this would represent a huge opportunity wasted as far as I'm concerned, but I will console myself with the fact that the people of this country have spoken and that's democracy.

Fair enough and if everyone takes the result that way in or out that will be better for Britain, the worst case scenario is division and carping afterwards

 

[hgblue]

Fair enough and if everyone takes the result that way in or out that will be better for Britain, the worst case scenario is division and carping afterwards

Of course I will accept the result, but that doesn't mean leavers aren't going to be a giant pain in the arse over the next few years if we vote to remain. ;)

 

[Chippy_boy]

Yes, chippy. Although I'm an outer, I accept that position does look more risky and fully expect a sizeable swing at the last minute to "the devil we know". It's human nature. That said, I think the no campaign will have been strong enough to bloody Cameron's nose.

I don't know why you have to make it Anti-Cameron. He's simply trying to do what he thinks is best for the country and I agree that the Out vote is inevitably large enough to demonstrate how split the country is over this. We know that already and didn't need a referendum to demonstrate it.

But what is Cameron supposed to do? Go back to Brussels and say, "you know what, we'd like to be able to set a cap on EU immigrants after all". He basically managed to negotiate not much because the others aren't prepared to give in on substantive issues. And yes I know that plays with the "loss of sovereignty" argument, but it's one of the downsides of club membership, you have to play by the club rules. I really don't know what you expect our PM to have done differently with regards to our EU position?

 

[Chippy_boy]

In a way, the result is quite secondary to me, because I strongly believe that the sovereignty that's been given away already and the more that is to come doesn't belong to politicians, so a referendum was necessary to legitimise this transfer of power. If we do vote to remain this would represent a huge opportunity wasted as far as I'm concerned, but I will console myself with the fact that the people of this country have spoken and that's democracy.

That is a good post, but I suspect you may be in a minority of Outers is taking that view. I can't imaging for one moment that even if we do get a compelling "In" majority, the Outers will say fair enough, that's the end of it. They'll keep banging on about this for decades imho, if not in perpetuity.

EDIT: I missed your later post ;-)

I give you one NIcola Turgid, as a prime example.

 

[hgblue]

That is a good post, but I suspect you may be in a minority of Outers is taking that view. I can't imaging for one moment that even if we do get a compelling "In" majority, the Outers will say fair enough, that's the end of it. They'll keep banging on about this for decades imho, if not in perpetuity.

EDIT: I missed your later post ;-)

I give you one NIcola Turgid, as a prime example.

Well in my opinion the British people will come to realise they've been sold a pup. TTIP, the Eurozone crisis, the entry of Turkey, a continuing migrant crisis, and an EU emboldened by the fact that they've 'won' the referendum, will all come back onto the agenda. It's naive to expect that there won't be a large number of 'I told you so' voices being heard in the years to come. As for Jimmy Krankie, she lost the battle but is winning the war.

 

[sir baconface]

I don't know why you have to make it Anti-Cameron. He's simply trying to do what he thinks is best for the country and I agree that the Out vote is inevitably large enough to demonstrate how split the country is over this. We know that already and didn't need a referendum to demonstrate it.

But what is Cameron supposed to do? Go back to Brussels and say, "you know what, we'd like to be able to set a cap on EU immigrants after all". He basically managed to negotiate not much because the others aren't prepared to give in on substantive issues. And yes I know that plays with the "loss of sovereignty" argument, but it's one of the downsides of club membership, you have to play by the club rules. I really don't know what you expect our PM to have done differently with regards to our EU position?

When you know someone's bluffing, you call their bluff. I believe he went into the negotiations looking for a fig-leaf. Whilst acknowledging the massive challenge of securing fundamental changes, a real hard-ball negotiation might have caused some ripples. In the event, there was never a danger of other EU leaders thinking he would recommend we pull out.

It also pisses me off the way he portrayed the crumbs as a great victory. He would say that, wouldn't he, but it just confirms him as a slippery individual. Not the only one, by the way, but the one who matters most at this point in time.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Well in my opinion the British people will come to realise they've been sold a pup. TTIP, the Eurozone crisis, the entry of Turkey, a continuing migrant crisis, and an EU emboldened by the fact that they've 'won' the referendum, will all come back onto the agenda. It's naive to expect that there won't be a large number of 'I told you so' voices being heard in the years to come. As for Jimmy Krankie, she lost the battle but is winning the war.

I was agreeing with you. As I've said many times on here before I think we are faced to choose between two shit options and whichever is chosen will be plenty shit enough for the unsuccessful voters to have a LOT to moan about.

 

[Chippy_boy]

When you know someone's bluffing, you call their bluff. I believe he went into the negotiations looking for a fig-leaf. Whilst acknowledging the massive challenge of securing fundamental changes, a real hard-ball negotiation might have caused some ripples. In the event, there was never a danger of other EU leaders thinking he would recommend we pull out.

It also pisses me off the way he portrayed the crumbs as a great victory. He would say that, wouldn't he, but it just confirms him as a slippery individual. Not the only one, by the way, but the one who matters most at this point in time.

I don't think he could have achieved any more than he has personally, and I also think you're right to say "he would say that, wouldn't he". In advocating we stay in, he's hardly likely to say what we've negiatied is a bit rubbish.

 

[hgblue]

I was agreeing with you. As I've said many times on here before I think we are faced to choose between two shit options and whichever is chosen will be plenty shit enough for the unsuccessful voters to have a LOT to moan about.

For once we're agreed ;). The shame from a leave perspective is that the remain camp can portray leaving the EU as a disaster for the country safe in the knowledge that for this theory to be tested we actually have to vote to leave which seems unlikely. I know you agree with that assessment, but imagine how frustrated you'd feel if you felt there was a golden future for this country as a self governing, free trading, prosperous nation again within our grasp, and the people are being frightened into not voting for it. You can bet your life that frustration will lead to some dissent in the years ahead.

 

[Chippy_boy]

For once we're agreed ;). The shame from a leave perspective is that the remain camp can portray leaving the EU as a disaster for the country safe in the knowledge that for this theory to be tested we actually have to vote to leave which seems unlikely. I know you agree with that assessment, but imagine how frustrated you'd feel if you felt there was a golden future for this country as a self governing, free trading, prosperous nation again within our grasp, and the people are being frightened into not voting for it. You can bet your life that frustration will lead to some dissent in the years ahead.

Bloody hell, we're agreeing again. I don't know what's come over me ;-)

The other way of looking at it is that the Remain camp would need to watch us leave and plunge the country into recession in order to be able to say, "I told you it would be a fuck up". Either way, the in/out clubs are mutually exclusive.

 

[Helmet Cole]

Not sure about this. Once the vote is done there will be enough problems ahead whichever side wins to keep the winners fairly gracious in victory. The voices on the losing side will quickly move on lest they become a single issue irrelevance politically - Anyone remember that Alex Salmond bloke? The only reason the SNP still thrive after the Scots voted to remain in the UK is that they neatly slipped into the power vacuum created by the implosion of Scottish labour. I'm sure there will be a few 'I told you so' types whatever the result in years to come, but they will be aboutcas credible as the dicks on here that seem to think they can predict our economic future.

 

[EalingBlue2]

I don't think he could have achieved any more than he has personally, and I also think you're right to say "he would say that, wouldn't he". In advocating we stay in, he's hardly likely to say what we've negiatied is a bit rubbish.

When you know someone's bluffing you call their bluff only if you think you still have the better hand. Nothing funnier than clowns who call down bluffs and then realise they still lose.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Bloody hell, we're agreeing again. I don't know what's come over me ;-)

The other way of looking at it is that the Remain camp would need to watch us leave and plunge the country into recession in order to be able to say, "I told you it would be a fuck up". Either way, the in/out clubs are mutually exclusive.

It will be bad if we Brexit complaints wise, every job shed - employers will use it to blame, there will be a lot of angry people around if there are economic problems with Brexit. I think out more likely to make anger though purely because it's change and will be blamed

 

[Chippy_boy]

Not sure about this. Once the vote is done there will be enough problems ahead whichever side wins to keep the winners fairly gracious in victory. The voices on the losing side will quickly move on lest they become a single issue irrelevance politically - Anyone remember that Alex Salmond bloke? The only reason the SNP still thrive after the Scots voted to remain in the UK is that they neatly slipped into the power vacuum created by the implosion of Scottish labour. I'm sure there will be a few 'I told you so' types whatever the result in years to come, but they will be aboutcas credible as the dicks on here that seem to think they can predict our economic future.

I don't think the Outers will ever give up though. And nor should they if they believe passionately that it's the right course. It's just quite tiresome for those of us who don't feel passionately about it one way or another and want to move on and make whatever choice has been made, work as best as we can.

EDIT: If of course we vote to remain, which who knows, we may not.