Everton (A) - Sun 14th May, 14:00 | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction


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We put the first game first. Rest players against Everton and we potentially lose, and the impact of losing v Everton would have a bigger physical, mental and emotional impact on the players than the extra minutes in their legs, and make beating Madrid harder not easier. Pep will not want to jeopardise our 10 consecutive wins in the league by going light v Everton, he will go strong and aim to keep the run going; maybe rest one or two if their energy stats are low but start strong and take players off IF we are comfortably ahead.

Mark my words the biggest threat to the Madrid game is losing or drawing the Everton game. Pep will not rest the players half of the posters on here are saying.
Go full strength and the same risk outcome exists

We don’t need to go light but several players and the team would benefit versus Madrid from being rested. I’m assuming Ake is not ready after injury

—————Haaland
Foden—Alvarez—Mahrez
———Lewis—Stones
Laporte—Akanji—Dias
—————Ortega

Plenty strong enough and Ederson, Walker, Rodri, Gundogan, Bernardo, De Bruyne, Grealish all rested.
 
Realistically I see maybe 3 changes -

A rested Mahrez in for Gundo after the kicking Madrid gave Ilkay, with Bernardo moving into centre mid;

Rico coming in for Kyle;

Laporte coming in for John or Akanji

I can’t see much more than that, and those 3 coming in are all better than any Everton starters. Still a very tough game but we are used to those. Will be potentially a very tense game like the 3 2 win under Pellegreni

I can see Foden and Alvarez starting too.
 
Going full strength doesn't guarantee a win.

Chances to win are like: full strength 80%, 2-3 changes 75%, 4-5 changes 70%.

It's not worth to risk injuries and fatigue before Real in order to make the win at Everton 10% more likely.

Plus, it's not a given that the likes of Foden, Mahrez and Alvarez would perform worse than the respective starters in Madrid. They'll be fresh, raring to go and won't try subconsciously to avoid injuries. If things don't go to plan, Pep can sub squad players off and play, say, Rodri, KDB and Grealish in the final 20-30 minutes.
 
Go full strength and the same risk outcome exists

We don’t need to go light but several players and the team would benefit versus Madrid from being rested. I’m assuming Ake is not ready after injury

—————Haaland
Foden—Alvarez—Mahrez
———Lewis—Stones
Laporte—Akanji—Dias
—————Ortega

Plenty strong enough and Ederson, Walker, Rodri, Gundogan, Bernardo, De Bruyne, Grealish all rested.
Where's the midfield? We'll get hammered if we put that team out!
 
Go full strength and the same risk outcome exists

We don’t need to go light but several players and the team would benefit versus Madrid from being rested. I’m assuming Ake is not ready after injury

—————Haaland
Foden—Alvarez—Mahrez
———Lewis—Stones
Laporte—Akanji—Dias
—————Ortega

Plenty strong enough and Ederson, Walker, Rodri, Gundogan, Bernardo, De Bruyne, Grealish all rested.

Akanji on the right and Gundo for Stones.
 
Going full strength doesn't guarantee a win.

Chances to win are like: full strength 80%, 2-3 changes 75%, 4-5 changes 70%.

It's not worth to risk injuries and fatigue before Real in order to make the win at Everton 10% more likely.

Plus, it's not a given that the likes of Foden, Mahrez and Alvarez would perform worse than the respective starters in Madrid. They'll be fresh, raring to go and won't try subconsciously to avoid injuries. If things don't go to plan, Pep can sub them off and play, say, Rodri, KDB and Grealish in the final 20-30 minutes.
Yeah, but you've made those possible win percentages up.
70% with 4-5 changes? More like 50% (I've made that up too ;)
 
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