FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[nmc]

Have the BBC announced they are showing United V Fulham. It’s obviously “the tie off of the round”.… they always are.

 

[old blue]

Prior to last nights draw, their sequence of home games had odds of 66-1. Nothing to see here, move along.

 

[whipper]

Have the BBC announced they are showing United V Fulham. It’s obviously “the tie off of the round”.… they always are.

On the Friday, Saturday and Sunday. :)

 

[SebastianBlue]

Well a mathematician (I happen to be one) would say your talking bollocks ;)

I happen to be a mathematician (and data scientist), too, so can say with full confidence of nearly two decades in my field that I am not “talking bollocks”. ;-)

This is basic statistical analysis taught at uni.

Edit: I will say, the gap in most people’s understanding of how probability (and statistics more generally) work, especially with larger datasets—partly due to poor education and partly due to the human mind not actually being very good at it to begin with—is heavily exploited in modern times and is one of the most overlooked dangers to a reasonably functioning society in the age of ever-quickening technological progress.

To sum up my previous posts:

1) discrete event probability (flipping a coin once) and aggregate expected value probability (flipping a coin hundreds of times) are two different things

2) the cup draw is far from ‘random’; as is actually flipping a coin

3) in most time-period based data analytics recency and trend are where insights are found

4) I make no qualitative judgement of United’s home draw run, only state that it could reasonably be described as aberrational

 

[paska]

Rags semi, Bernardo with a screamer
Brighton in the final.

Put a nice stripey scalf round Pep’s neck and a baseball cap on De Zerbi’s head. Pukka

 

[M18CTID]

I just hope the club price this right. I'm not in the Cup scheme because of work/midweek commitments. I've been a season ticket holder for most of my life so no jcl. I'll pay up to 40 for me and 20 for my daughter. Anything more is too much in my eyes.

I'd be surprised if tickets are priced higher than that. Maybe the ones in level 2 will be but I can't imagine the NS or SS being higher than that. I could be wrong though as demand for tickets for our home games is higher than I can ever remember

 

[paska]

It's not, as each draw is a separate event they have exactly an even chance of being drawn at home each time. If a roulette ball had landed on red 9 consecutive times do you think the odds of it happening on the next roll would be higher than normal?

The odds of that same event happening nine times in a row adds up though

You’re not predicting a single event nine consecutive times, you’re predicting nine consecutive events

 

[paska]

Try getting it to land on each side exactly 5 times!

A lot, lot easier than 10/10 one side

 

[paska]

United just drew the 2nd hardest opponent out of 7, so maybe give the conspiracy shite a rest for a while.

Didn’t realise they got Brighton?

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

Go on then share your formula/theory for concluding that....

There are 252 different combinations of (different ways of gettings) 5H and 5T ------> 10!/((5!)(5!)) = 252

There is only 1 combination of (way of getting) 10H (or 10T whichever one you prefer) ------> 10!/10! = 1

You then use this value and multiply it by 0.5(to the power of 10) to find the probability of the event occurring.

Remember probability tree diagrams from school/college? Well, I used to teach them, along with all of the Mathematics on any syllabus up to and including A-level Further Mathematics, for about 20 years ;)