FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

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SebastianBlue said:
I happen to be a mathematician (and data scientist), too, so can say with full confidence of nearly two decades in my field that I am not “talking bollocks”. ;-)

This is basic statistical analysis taught at uni.

Edit: I will say, the gap in most people’s understanding of how probability (and statistics more generally) work, especially with larger datasets—partly due to poor education and partly due to the human mind not actually being very good at it to begin with—is heavily exploited in modern times and is one of the most overlooked dangers to a reasonably functioning society in the age of ever-quickening technological progress.

To sum up my previous posts:

1) discrete event probability (flipping a coin once) and aggregate expected value probability (flipping a coin hundreds of times) are two different things

2) the cup draw is far from ‘random’; as is actually flipping a coin

3) in most time-period based data analytics recency and trend are where insights are found

4) I make no qualitative judgement of United’s home draw run, only state that it could reasonably be described as aberrational
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paska said:
Rags semi, Bernardo with a screamer
Brighton in the final.

Put a nice stripey scalf round Pep’s neck and a baseball cap on De Zerbi’s head. Pukka
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Last time Brighton were at Wembley with us they were cunts hope not again
 
woody1968 said:
Absolutely correct-the outcome of a series of coin tosses is classed as mutually exclusive as each toss has a 50/50 chance of being H or T and one toss does not effect in any way the outcome of the next toss and therefore any combination of either H or T has exactly the same odds
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BUT,

10 Heads on the bounce is much less likely than a combination (permutation) of 5 Heads and 5 Tails (HHHHHTTTTT, HHHHTTTTTH, HHHHTTTTHT, HHHHTTTHTT, HHHHTTHTTT, etc...etc...etc, I'm NOT going to list ALL 252 to explain it to you, but I hope you catch my drift ;)
 
the-ecstacy-of-eight said:
BUT,

10 Heads on the bounce is much less likely than a combination (permutation) of 5 Heads and 5 Tails (HHHHHTTTTT, HHHHTTTTTH, HHHHTTTTHT, HHHHTTTHTT, HHHHTTHTTT, etc...etc...etc, I'm NOT going to list ALL 252 to explain it to you, but I hope you catch my drift ;)
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Also, I was trying not to get in to this because a few are already having a go at me for making pretty basic statistical factual points about the discussion, but ‘flipping a coin’ is absolutely not an equivalent to the cup draw process.

The discrete event probabilities in each are quite different and the Cup draw’s aggregate expected value probabilities are substantially more complex than simply flipping a coin hundreds of times.

To be clear, the cup draw process is not ‘random’. No statistician worth their salt if asked to create a ‘random’ number selection process would ever choose to have people affiliated with the organisation running the selection using their hands to draw balls out of a bowl on international television.

In fact, they should at least be using ‘no human interaction’ lottery standards, but they chose not to for… reasons.
 
BlueMoonRisin’ said:
Will be a tight game mate. This isn't Sean Dyche's team of up and over plodders anymore. Kompany has instilled playing out from the back with neat and tidy passing. They work hard to keep possession. Similar to how we play.
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That will suit us though pal no putting 11 behind the ball Haaland will have a field day
 
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