FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[hertsblue]

The constant whining about hot balls and FA conspiracies grates after a while.

People who were convinced United would get Grimsby 30 minutes ago already complaining they'll get an easy draw in the next round.

No issue with the FA Cup draw at all, its the Caraboo draws that raise suspicion with the clear, easy to see through glass bowl where you can see the numbers on the balls and always a Rag to do the draws it seems this year.

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

Also, I was trying not to get in to this because a few are already having a go at me for making pretty basic statistical factual points about the discussion, but ‘flipping a coin’ is absolutely not an equivalent to the cup draw process.

The discrete event probabilities in each are quite different and the Cup draw’s aggregate expected value probabilities are substantially more complex than simply flipping a coin hundreds of times.

To be clear, the cup draw process is not ‘random’. No statistician worth their salt if asked to create a ‘random’ number selection process would ever choose to have people affiliated with the organisation running the selection using their hands to draw balls out of a bowl on international television.

In fact, they should at least be using ‘no human interaction’ lottery standards, but they chose not to for… reasons.

So was I mate, as I thought I'd given up explaining "watered down probability" to people who insist "It's 50/50 sir" about 20 years ago :) :) :)

And I absolutely agree with you 100% on everything you've written. Also liked your earlier explanation about the minor discrepancies that "could" (cough! cough!) be present on each ball.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The constant whining about hot balls and FA conspiracies grates after a while.

People who were convinced United would get Grimsby 30 minutes ago already complaining they'll get an easy draw in the next round.

I can understand that, and agree it can get a bit much (even from me at times), but the reason it persists is because the FA chooses to use a non-random, fairly easily influenced process for selection for no real reason.

Even if they wanted to use a ball selection process, they should be using the ‘no human contact’ lottery standard, but they don’t.

I personally raise these concerns as a professional in the field of data science because there really is no reason for them other than to possibly allow influencing outcomes (under the guise of presumably increasing viewership by using famous people to “liven up” the process).

It’s not a random draw—not even remotely close to it—and the design makes undue influence actually fairly easy, and so criticism of it is fairly reasonable.

 

[SebastianBlue]

So was I mate, as I thought I'd given up explaining "watered down probability" to people who insist "It's 50/50 sir" about 20 years ago :) :) :)

And I absolutely agree with you 100% on everything you've written. Also liked your earlier explanation about the minor discrepancies that "could" (cough! cough!) be present on each ball.

Like I said, in a world where statistical and probabilistic analytics is increasingly being used to literally determine people’s lots in life and daily experience, it is more important than many realise that we collective improve understanding of this branch of maths.

It is not an exaggeration to say or kids’ futures will largely depend on their proficiency in this sort of thing.

 

[Indaparkside]

Sly Sports Spews
FA to launch major investigation after Manchester United were NOT drawn again Grimsby Town, at home in the cup quarter final.

Apparently investigation over ball was put on 15 seconds instead of 45 in the microwave shearer has been docked pay

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

Like I said, in a world where statistical and probabilistic analytics is increasingly being used to literally determine people’s lots in life and daily experience, it is more important than many realise that we collective improve understanding of this branch of maths.

It is not an exaggeration to say or kids’ futures will largely depend on their proficiency in this sort of thing.

From my experience, you'll be akin to a dog chasing its own tail if you attempt to educate, or expect, the vast majority of the population to even care about ANY branch of Mathematics, let alone improve their understanding of it :)

 

[MCFC shaw]

Is Friday the 27th an option?
Hopefully not as its The Slow Readers club at the Albert halls that night

Do you mean 17th? Doubt it as burnley play wed 15th in championship

 

[M Gaudino]

If it is on a Friday I will not be there.

is say its looking likely….united are playing thursday so they cant be on

 

[SebastianBlue]

From my experience, you'll be akin to a dog chasing its own tail if you attempt to educate, or expect, the vast majority of the population to even care about ANY branch of Mathematics, let alone improve their understanding of it :)

Of course you are correct, as the “you must be fun at parties” and “thanks professor” responses to my posts obviously support.

For me, having being deep in the field for so long, and seeing how it is being increasingly used to influence, manipulate, (and at times control) people’s lives, it is frightening the level of apathy or outright resistance to anyone trying to raise these concerns and help educate others about the way these systems work and why they are important.

I think a lot of that comes with the “we’ve had enough of experts” and the anti-intelligencia movements over the last few decades.

And I can say from experience many entities—public and private—are absolutely capitalising on those trends to take advantage of people. Which is both sad and frustrating from my perspective.

 

[Gray]

Of course you are correct, as the “you must be fun at parties” and “thanks professor” responses to my posts obviously support.

For me, having being deep in the field for so long, and seeing how it is being increasingly used to influence, manipulate, (and at times control) people’s lives, it is frightening the level of apathy or outright resistance to anyone trying to raise these concerns and help educate others about the way these systems work and why they are important.

I think a lot of that comes with the “we’ve had enough of experts” and the anti-intelligencia movements over the last few decades.

And I can say from experience many entities—public and private—are absolutely capitalising on those trends to take advantage of people. Which is both sad and frustrating from my perspective.

Keep up the good work, Maths was the only subject I ever excelled at when at school.

I achieved a 97% mark in my GCE 'O Level' and was pissed off that I did not get the 100%.