General Election - 4th July 2024

[Zablo Pabletta]

How the 2024 election could have looked with proportional representation

And the results are out. This election has the biggest difference ever between how we voted and the MPs that now represent us.This was the first election ever where four parties got ove

www.electoral-reform.org.uk

I was about to protest that voter behaviour would significantly change making any projection irrelevant.

But TBH, with one or two adjustments, that's not far from how I see the country at the moment.

It does raise the question of balance of power existing in the hands of the smallest party.

In this case - the Greens - whom I ruled out voting for on the grounds that I suspect Marxist fanatics fleeing Labour are going to attempt to use the party as a vehicle.

 

[bluenova]

I suppose that is essentially how fptp works.

I think it's more like Labour targeted a lot of 1-0 wins, rather than racking up lots of 5-0 wins in games they were always going to win, but losing the tougher games.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I was about to protest that voter behaviour would significantly change making any projection irrelevant.

But TBH, with one or two adjustments, that's not far from how I see the country at the moment.

It does raise the question of balance of power existing in the hands of the smallest party.

In this case - the Greens - whom I ruled out voting for on the grounds that I suspect Marxist fanatics fleeing Labour are going to attempt to use the party as a vehicle.

I think the pr illustration there is caveated by saying a different electoral system may in itself cause different voting patterns/strategies. With fptp you can vote reform or green as a protest safe in the knowledge they will never be in number 10.

 

[mosssideblue]

Exactly mate.

40% of the voting population couldn’t be arsed.

Then only 34% of the 60% who could be arsed voted Labour.

It’s pitiful that that’s seen as an acceptable system for giving a party power.

Not likely to change and are the rules that politicians are happy to participate in.

 

[Gray]

Absolutely not, everyone has the right to vote but it doesn't mean they have to nor should they.

Not quite true, you have to register to vote - so why bother if you don’t intend to vote?

 

[Gray]

Who decides what is a valid reason ?.

Me, ha ha.

 

[bluenova]

Not sure if this has been posted, but any suggestion that Reform won it for Labour is very far from reality.

The figures below would likely have got the Tories a couple of % or so closer to Labour. However given how ruthless the Labour/Lib Dem vote was split (with LDs going Labour where needed most, and vice versa), and Greens going Labour/Lib Dem in tighter seats, it's quite possible that the 32% going Lab/LD/Green would have more than counteracted the 36% going Tory.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Not sure if this has been posted, but any suggestion that Reform won it for Labour is very far from reality.

The figures below would likely have got the Tories a couple of % or so closer to Labour. However given how ruthless the Labour/Lib Dem vote was split (with LDs going Labour where needed most, and vice versa), and Greens going Labour/Lib Dem in tighter seats, it's quite possible that the 32% going Lab/LD/Green would have more than counteracted the 36% going Tory.

I said somewhere yesterday that I thought that the UKIP/Brexit/Reform entity had already taken the majority of votes from Labour at previous elections, and had relatively little purchase on more.

Farage spent a lot of the election campaign targetting the Conservatives, so it doesn't seem a surprise that that's where a lot of his voters might have gone instead.

 

[Three_Hat-tricks]

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I think there's one point that a lot are overlooking when they say things like "Starmer got a worse vote share than Corbyn in 2017" - which is true. But there's a reason Corbyn lost.

Let's be honest, the voters permitted Starmer to win. Implicitly, they didn't mobilise to vote against him. They didn't deem him enough of a threat to vote efficiently in opposition - that might not be an endorsement but it is an acceptance. That wasn't the case for Corbyn. People stacked up on the Tories with unprecedented weight specifically to stop him.

So while only a third of the electorate voted for Labour, I think it's fair to say that another 15-30% were somewhere between apathetic about a Labour victory and voting another party to ensure one. Whereas clearly 75% were working actively against the Conservatives which is why they lost.

FPTP creates the perception of binary support when actually it's more nuanced. It is often more about who most of the electorate allow to win rather than who they want to win. I hate it as a system, but the truth is that the voters let Cameron in with 36% in 2010 and now it's the same with Starmer. In FPTP the electorate acts more like a gatekeeper.

We need to fix FPTP, but I'm not suddenly going to promote some new urgency to the topic just because it's the other side of the spectrum that has benefited on this occasion. It's been a problem for decades.