General Election - 4th July 2024

[gordondaviesmoustache]

He’s just really, really bad at politics.

That, plus truly terrible people skills.

 

[mosssideblue]

Appalling outcome for democracy, that.

It is, but the Tories only have themselves to blame for this scenario

 

[bluenova]

Think this is too aggressive…but damn, I’d give my right nut to see it happen

The polling companies must be very nervous right now.

Not sure if anyone has posted the image below, but it's a quick explainer why some pollsters have the Labour lead in the mid-teens, and others have it 10 pts higher.

You get a lot of 'don't knows' when the election isn't imminent, and for the last couple of years we've had an unusually high number of 2019 Tory's saying it. The 'squeeze' is asking people who say "don't know", who they'd vote for if they had to choose, while re-weighing predicts how people might vote.

The ~'forecasters' are the ones showing smaller Tory leads, but I assume most of them thought the two groups would get closer as we approach the election. The fact that these MRPs for the nowcasters are coming out as absolute destruction for the Tories is pretty scary.

For anyone questioning why Labour aren't doing more to appease their 'core' vote. After the last election, Labour's vote was so concentrated in seats they won, that it was predicted they might need a double figures lead just to get a majority of 1. Instead, they appear to have managed to broaden their appeal, so that same vote share could now result in a landslide similar to the Tories in 2019.

 

[BrianW]

Perhaps, when it hits the Tories and their supporters, people, and the rancid press will start to see that FPTP voting is unjust.

It never bothered them when non-Tories lost out. For example, the Johnson 'landslide' was based on 43.5% of the vote. Did the Daily Mail point that out? Don't think so. It was 'democracy in action' back then.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It is, but the Tories only have themselves to blame for this scenario

Arguably Tony Blair does too. If he’d kept his promise to look at electoral reform in the 1997 Labour Manifesto then we might not be having this conversation.

Big shout out for Nick Clegg and his shit negotiating skills as well.

 

[BobKowalski]

The polling companies must be very nervous right now.

Not sure if anyone has posted the image below, but it's a quick explainer why some pollsters have the Labour lead in the mid-teens, and others have it 10 pts higher.

You get a lot of 'don't knows' when the election isn't imminent, and for the last couple of years we've had an unusually high number of 2019 Tory's saying it. The 'squeeze' is asking people who say "don't know", who they'd vote for if they had to choose, while re-weighing predicts how people might vote.

The ~'forecasters' are the ones showing smaller Tory leads, but I assume most of them thought the two groups would get closer as we approach the election. The fact that these MRPs for the nowcasters are coming out as absolute destruction for the Tories is pretty scary.

For anyone questioning why Labour aren't doing more to appease their 'core' vote. After the last election, Labour's vote was so concentrated in seats they won, that it was predicted they might need a double figures lead just to get a majority of 1. Instead, they appear to have managed to broaden their appeal, so that same vote share could now result in a landslide similar to the Tories in 2019.

View attachment 120924

Nervous and alarmed judging by this tweet on a Opinium poll commissioned by the Observer and due out tomorrow.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Arguably Tony Blair does too. If he’d kept his promise to look at electoral reform in the 1997 Labour Manifesto then we might not be having this conversation.

Big shout out for Nick Clegg and his shit negotiating skills as well.

Nick Clegg doesn’t get enough criticism for the damage he did to this country.

And just like Sunak in a few weeks, light the match then fuck off to California.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

 

[bluenova]

Nervous and alarmed judging by this tweet on a Opinium poll commissioned by the Observer and due out tomorrow.

I think they're notorious teases.

But at some point, does their re-weighting have to take into account whether things really will change in the space of a month? Given they're in the forecasters group, they're already moving a lot of votes from Labour to Tory - so they should be the least affected by a campaign IF things narrow as they expected.

Their previous two Labour leads were 14 (last week), and 18 the week before, so it could be a jump over 20 or a quirky drop to single figures, but that seems unlikely given no-one else seems to be dropping so quickly.

 

[bluenova]

Nick Clegg doesn’t get enough criticism for the damage he did to this country.

And just like Sunak in a few weeks, light the match then fuck off to California.

How the fuck they get grouped into being a 'progressive party' when they were complicit in the worst of austerity is truly amazing.