General Election - 4th July 2024

[Zablo Pabletta]

This is even better

For me he misses the gross betrayal of our people that happened under May.

1. Windrush. Scouring the streets for long term settled residents who came from a group that did not always have correct paperwork - 50 years ago. Live here 50 years. Came here as a child when we were desperate for new residents. Decades later, you're a target, no longer a citizen.

2. Grenfall Tower. One of the most horrific tragedies I've ever seen. Due entirely to poor standards of building and an inadequate regulation system. 72 people died.

May refused to be visit. Wrong demographic. Don't get associated with bad news.

That's it. Right there, for me. The government who decided, innocent people dying by the dozens, a local area in profound shock - we want nothing to do with them.

It is their job, to show this is a humane country. To do the human thing. To visit. To witness the loss and share in it. On behalf of the whole country.

If I call them INHUMAN BASTARDS, please understand why I get so angry.

Because it so nailed on the fate of this country.

You can't be inhuman to people and expect anything else than moral decay.

It sounds like some moral from a story.

Well, that's exactly what it IS! This is OUR story. The story of the British people.

We have to remain human and decent. We have to do it publicly. So the morals are preserved.

And this lot, this lot said, errr... nah... For the TINIEST of advantages.

That's why I agree with his overall sentiment.

GOOD FUCKING RIDDANCE LETS BUILD THIS COUNTRY BACK TO WHAT IT IS

FUCK THEM ALL and FUCK EVERYTHING THAT'S HAPPENED

I'm convinced there's hardly a person on this board, or in my area, who didn't get burned one way or another.

Fuck that. We'll start again. No looking back.

 

[Vic]

This is an interesting article if only because i think it taps into why the Tories have lost so much support in the ‘blue wall’. It references a Brexit vibe and a sense of having lost ‘something’ and a radicalisation of the ‘sensibles’ - the articles phrase.

Brexit wasn't worth it

In the run-up to the 2016 EU Referendum, people at the IEA and in its wider orbit were having lively … Continue reading "Brexit wasn’t worth it"

iea.org.uk

‘One of the main social consequences of the Brexit vote has been the radicalisation of The Sensibles.

The Sensibles are a political tribe of sorts, except, they are defined by a vibe rather than a specific set of political beliefs. They have no strong convictions of their own. They base their politics on whatever is considered “respectable”, “reasonable”, “grown-up” and “nuanced” at a given time and place. They adopt whatever opinion is considered the smart, well-educated person’s opinion.

In our time, The Sensibles are invariably on the Left – although not in the sense of being Corbynite anti-capitalists. They are not ultra-woke either, although they would never criticise wokery, because smart, educated people don’t do that: that’s “Gammon”, and low-status.

The Sensibles have no strong loyalties to any political party: they may support Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, or one of the left-coded regionalist parties. They hate the Tory Party in its current form, but they love Rory Stewart, whom they used to see as “the one good Tory”, and they believe that there was a time when the party was more Sensible and Grown-Up. They are most easily defined by who and what they are against: Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Daily Mail, the Sun, populism, GB News, and Brexit. Of course Brexit. They really, really, really, really hate Brexit. And they cannot get over it.’

I'm not sure this really follows the above, but in patches in our constituency (particularly ex-council estates now housing association properties, with not that many non-white tenants) where more than a few Labour people went for Liar Johnson in 2019, we're getting some back to Labour - but quite a few are undecided: they are definitely not voting Tory, but are yet to choose between Labour and Reform...

 

[Postman Pep]

This is an interesting article if only because i think it taps into why the Tories have lost so much support in the ‘blue wall’. It references a Brexit vibe and a sense of having lost ‘something’ and a radicalisation of the ‘sensibles’ - the articles phrase.

Brexit wasn't worth it

In the run-up to the 2016 EU Referendum, people at the IEA and in its wider orbit were having lively … Continue reading "Brexit wasn’t worth it"

iea.org.uk

‘One of the main social consequences of the Brexit vote has been the radicalisation of The Sensibles.

The Sensibles are a political tribe of sorts, except, they are defined by a vibe rather than a specific set of political beliefs. They have no strong convictions of their own. They base their politics on whatever is considered “respectable”, “reasonable”, “grown-up” and “nuanced” at a given time and place. They adopt whatever opinion is considered the smart, well-educated person’s opinion.

In our time, The Sensibles are invariably on the Left – although not in the sense of being Corbynite anti-capitalists. They are not ultra-woke either, although they would never criticise wokery, because smart, educated people don’t do that: that’s “Gammon”, and low-status.

The Sensibles have no strong loyalties to any political party: they may support Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, or one of the left-coded regionalist parties. They hate the Tory Party in its current form, but they love Rory Stewart, whom they used to see as “the one good Tory”, and they believe that there was a time when the party was more Sensible and Grown-Up. They are most easily defined by who and what they are against: Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Daily Mail, the Sun, populism, GB News, and Brexit. Of course Brexit. They really, really, really, really hate Brexit. And they cannot get over it.’

Reminds me of this :

‘Loud, obsessive, tribal’: the radicalisation of remain

The long read: They hate Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. They no longer trust the BBC. They love civil servants, legal experts and James O’Brien. And now, consumed by the battle against Brexit, hardcore remainers are no longer the moderates

www.theguardian.com

Before the referendum, many of the people who have become remainists considered themselves immune to the passions of politics. They tended to hover around the centre ground and didn’t strongly identify with any party

Remainists often describe Brexit as a distraction from the real problems Britain faces – austerity, inequality, a creaking NHS. Yet those problems existed long before the referendum, without galvanising most remainists in the way Brexit has. For many remainists, in fact, it can feel as if everything else is a distraction: what drives them on is their belief that Brexit is the battle of a lifetime

.

 

[BobKowalski]

I'm not sure this really follows the above, but in patches in our constituency (particularly ex-council estates now housing association properties, with not that many non-white tenants) where more than a few Labour people went for Liar Johnson in 2019, we're getting some back to Labour - but quite a few are undecided: they are definitely not voting Tory, but are yet to choose between Labour and Reform...

Plays into the fracturing of the Tory vote. LibDems and Labour in a pincer movement and Reform gobbling up the rear. I also think the Green vote could be significant in some traditional Tory areas.

It’s a broad church electorate disintegrating before our eyes and getting pulled into different camps. God knows what the final result will be.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Plays into the fracturing of the Tory vote. LibDems and Labour in a pincer movement and Reform gobbling up the rear. I also think the Green vote could be significant in some traditional Tory areas.

It’s a broad church electorate disintegrating before our eyes and getting pulled into different camps. God knows what the final result will be.

Less than 100 seats.

 

[BobKowalski]

Reminds me of this :

‘Loud, obsessive, tribal’: the radicalisation of remain

The long read: They hate Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. They no longer trust the BBC. They love civil servants, legal experts and James O’Brien. And now, consumed by the battle against Brexit, hardcore remainers are no longer the moderates

www.theguardian.com

Before the referendum, many of the people who have become remainists considered themselves immune to the passions of politics. They tended to hover around the centre ground and didn’t strongly identify with any party

Remainists often describe Brexit as a distraction from the real problems Britain faces – austerity, inequality, a creaking NHS. Yet those problems existed long before the referendum, without galvanising most remainists in the way Brexit has. For many remainists, in fact, it can feel as if everything else is a distraction: what drives them on is their belief that Brexit is the battle of a lifetime

.

Very similar, yet five years apart and now we are on the eve of the potential wipeout of the Party that has overseen these events. Brexit is only part of the story, but it is the catalyst.

 

[BobKowalski]

Less than 100 seats.

Yep. My worst case prediction was a 140 - 160 spread. Now, that would be a respectable defeat.

 

[The blue phantom]

Yep. My worst case prediction was a 140 - 160 spread. Now, that would be a respectable defeat.

Current odds

4/7...100 seats or less
11/8... 101 seats or more

 

[bluethrunthru]

I am now convinced they are trying to lose this one

Tory chair Richard Holden's leaflets sent to wrong constituency

Richard Holden tells the BBC a "few hundred" leaflets were misdirected.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[inchy14]

Very similar, yet five years apart and now we are on the eve of the potential wipeout of the Party that has overseen these events. Brexit is only part of the story, but it is the catalyst.

Can’t fucking wait.

Hopefully it’ll lead to big political changes in the UK but I doubt it unfortunately.