General Election - December 12th, 2019

[cibaman]

Have you noticed who's leading the Labour Party these days?

Corbyn is the devil incarnate to all Tory voters. Any Tory Remainers so disenfranchised with the Tories will vote LibDem, not Labour. I'm serious, I can't remotely imagine Labour will pick up any significant number of would be Tory voters whatsoever. If half the Labour voters can't stand him - what chance does he have of gaining Tory votes? Nil.

Labour have no pool from which to get any extra votes. So they'll get less than last time, for certain. The only question is whether the Tories will do even worse, but at the moment, it doesn't look like it.

It’s possible that Johnson could pull a rabbit out of the hat, unite the 43%+ that still want to leave and gain a majority.

More likely is that it will be a hung parliament, with Labour trying to go it alone as a minority government. The Lib Dem’s and SNP will probably do very well and will have no incentive to force a 2nd election so will allow Corbyn at least a few months as PM. But the Lib Dem’s 2015 wipe out will mean that neither they or the SNP will want to be seen to be close to the government. They’ll probably do a few deals to allow McDonnell’s first budget to go through without too many amendments. But after that it will become increasingly difficult for Labour to get any legislation through without it being blocked or watered down. We’ll have a radical government that is unable to do anything radical.

Welcome back 1974.

 

[Rascal]

Yep I’d much rather he’d have given the left wing view for leave, which has essentially been non existent throughout any of the public debate (personally, I still wouldn’t have voted for it, but I will always advocate for as many different viewpoints as possible, I hate echo chambers, particularly my own!).

I was having the discussion today, who would be the next leader? I think labour can win on a similar manifesto to Corbyns, and if they had someone in without the baggage of previous associations, then that would bring a lot more votes too, as there are a few people that simply won’t vote for him regardless of the policies. I’m just not sure there is someone there on that side of the party to follow him, not yet.

The next leader , maybe Lisa Nandy or Clive Lewis.

But I really do not know.

 

[Rascal]

Yep, wrestled the party back from the election-winning machine that was Blair. We’re witnessing a rerun of the late ‘70s when Labour was bewitched by the likes of Foot, Benn etc. All well-read, highly intelligent, left-leaning. And utterly unelectable. Cue Maggie doing what the fuck she wanted faced by an opposition who thought unilateral disarmament was a great policy at the height of the cold war. The worst day in power is better than the best day in opposition.

Check out the manifesto Michael Foot stood on and you will see what a visionary he actually was. Thatcher enacted some of his policies and he foresaw that there would be a majority to leave the EU.

I supported Unilateral disarmament, I attended CND marches as a 12 year old and remain committed to CND today. Nuclear weapons are of course a separate debate, but why on earth would you want to spend Billions on a weapon you can never use, whilst decimating the conventional forces that you can is beyond me.

 

[mcfc1632]

Have you noticed who's leading the Labour Party these days?

Corbyn is the devil incarnate to all Tory voters. Any Tory Remainers so disenfranchised with the Tories will vote LibDem, not Labour. I'm serious, I can't remotely imagine Labour will pick up any significant number of would be Tory voters whatsoever. If half the Labour voters can't stand him - what chance does he have of gaining Tory votes? Nil.

Labour have no pool from which to get any extra votes. So they'll get less than last time, for certain. The only question is whether the Tories will do even worse, but at the moment, it doesn't look like it.

The vote, IMO, will split like:

1. Labour - in constituencies where Labour will be returned come what may - but they will make a disappointing number of gains with their target seats either going to the LibDems or the Conservatives. I think that they will get fewer seats than the 2017 GE.

2. Conservatives - will win their traditional strongholds - with only a relatively few seats lost to the LibDems

3. LibDems in a few Remain dominated seats where the polling shows that there is a chance of LibDems getting a majority so therefore taking some seats from the Conservatives - but perhaps more from Labour. I do not see any chance of a Lib/Lab deal before or after the GE result.

4. Conservatives in sufficient marginals to win a majority

5. Not bothering about the SNP because that is obvious - although a clean sweep is not a given. I do most of my work in Scotland and there is more commitment to the Union than people might believe because they only hear the SNP views.

All this has become obvious to Labour who now want the election but first want/need to burst the Johnson bubble / momentum and ideally embarrass him by failing to deliver on his do or die promises. That is because a few percentage points reduced for Johnson probably makes the difference between a Labour or Tory PM. So they will run for cover - taking refuge in the 'we must stop no-deal' mantra whilst they seek to do that. They will want him to stew and look flummoxed for a while so that any gloss and feeling of drive evaporates in the minds of the voters.

I think that in private the Labour leadership must be feeling very frustrated and concerned - their current leadership have been waiting for this opportunity for many years and have been confident for years. All of a sudden it could go pear shaped as they get squeezed between both the Conservatives and the LibDems in a buoyant state - but they have little choice but to take their chance.

If 4. does not happen then a post GE minority Labour government will at least see constraints placed on McDonnell's excesses. There will be utter paralysis - same if it is a minority Conservative government.

So the games in the coming weeks will be interesting. People like to think that Johnson is a clown - but some people behind him are not and therefore some of this do or die mantra must be against some intended ploy. Having read the new legislation it seems 'watertight' to me - but there must be some gambit that I cannot see that is going to be played now that parliament is prorogued - at least I would hope so.

If he does not win the GE then Brexit is consigned to the bin and he is toast - so his planning beyond that must be on the assumption that he will win.

 

[mcfc1632]

I suppose it temporarily breaks the monotony of seeing your own side grinding itself into the dirt over the past 4 years.

If (when) you lose the election yet again, it will be about as pleasing as 6-1 at the swamp.

I have mentioned that there is a big chance that the Remain vote in the upcoming GE will not be effectively utilised in the upcoming GE, which could lead to a Conservative majority.

I do not know where you live but you are clearly an example of a very strong Remain supporter, but a more devout Tory.

Living in the South - outside London - I think your attitude will be replicated in spades and safe Tory seats which are also Remain supporting will continue to be safe Tory seats.

It will be all about the marginals where the Remain support could be split between Labour and the LibDems and the Leave support will/should go to the Tories.

 

[Rascal]

I have mentioned that there is a big chance that the Remain vote in the upcoming GE will not be effectively utilised in the upcoming GE, which could lead to a Conservative majority.

I do not know where you live but you are clearly an example of a very strong Remain supporter, but a more devout Tory.

Living in the South - outside London - I think your attitude will be replicated in spades and safe Tory seats which are also Remain supporting will continue to be safe Tory seats.

It will be all about the marginals where the Remain support could be split between Labour and the LibDems and the Leave support will/should go to the Tories.

It is saddening to see the electorate as being two camps divided.

Personally I couldn't give a fuck about leave or remain, I want to vote for a party that has the best policies on the NHS, Education, Social issues and the like. I know it will not be that way, but I can hope.

 

[mcfc1632]

It is saddening to see the electorate as being two camps divided.

Personally I couldn't give a fuck about leave or remain, I want to vote for a party that has the best policies on the NHS, Education, Social issues and the like. I know it will not be that way, but I can hope.

You should indeed hope so - but you are also indeed correct - it will largely not be that way.

 

[inbetween]

As a sensible responsible politician why would you offer the electorate the opportunity to shoot its brains out with No Deal. The government knows the dire consequences of what it will bring and the only people advocating are the ultra wealthy and simpletons who have been sucked into this No Deal death cult.

In a constitutional crisis where government is paralyzed, how can you possibly advocate not allowing the people to have a say because you personally won't like the result?!

Labour are not in power, they are a million miles from power. The reason we are in this mess is BECAUSE of Labour's absence in opposition for three years.

Labour could of prevented no deal on three occasions and consistently voted for no deal instead. The beauty of their position is they now plan to bring back the deal they voted against up against remain!! Unbelievable.

I hold the view that I no longer care what the result is. I just want it sorted and if the people have their say then that result is never wrong regardless of what it is.

Those opposing know what the result will be and they are essentially holding the public and the will of the public in contempt. The arrogance and elitism is just astounding.

 

[George Hannah]

The Marxist engineered chaos to come is signalled to the strains of the Red Flag

 

[M18CTID]

In a constitutional crisis where government is paralyzed, how can you possibly advocate not allowing the people to have a say because you personally won't like the result?!

Labour are not in power, they are a million miles from power. The reason we are in this mess is BECAUSE of Labour's absence in opposition for three years.

Labour could of prevented no deal on three occasions and consistently voted for no deal instead. The beauty of their position is they now plan to bring back the deal they voted against up against remain!! Unbelievable.

I hold the view that I no longer care what the result is. I just want it sorted and if the people have their say then that result is never wrong regardless of what it is.

Those opposing know what the result will be and they are essentially holding the public and the will of the public in contempt. The arrogance and elitism is just astounding.

This is the crux of it for me. It's been suggested on here that Brexit-supporting Tory MPs scuppered the vote on the deal but there are far more Remain-supporting MPs in the HoC. You only have to look at the graphic showing how many Labour MPs voted against it. If they'd all voted in favour of that deal then it would've pissed in and No Deal would be consigned to history.