General Election - December 12th, 2019

[Rascal]

Capitalism is the greatest driver of wealthy and prosperity that our species has ever seen. Crony capitalism, which is what we have in the modern world, is toxic to the planet, toxic to people and toxic to democracy.

The choice between crony capitalism and full on socialism then socialism provides a more stable and free society in my opinion. However between a socialist economy and a capitalist one then I'd go capitalist.

As ever, I never like saying how "capitalism is great" or "fascism is terrible" or whatever. Every political system has some good ideas innate to it and we should attempt to mix and match as best we can whilst still having a coherent system. Social democracy seems to be a half decent attempt at this.

That's a decent post, although I feel Social Democracy has been hijacked by Liberal Democracy and I am not particularly Liberal, I am probably more small C conservative. Capitalism has survived for the reason nobody has yet to find a system to replace it and those with the most to lose from Capitalism do not want it replacing. An alternative, Communism descended into authoritarianism and is now tainted by that association. A quick look on here sees the power of Macarthyism and the reds under the bed scare stories. The capitalists did a great job discrediting it. "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" never had a chance thanks to the power of the rapacious capitalists. Post scarcity economic theory does not allow much room for profiteering. Hence the desperate attempts by Capitalists to privatise scarce resources. Oil, water gas etc for instance all in the hands of the Capitalists.

Capitalism also demands people work and we are seeing people now working more than ever for less, therefore exploiting workers surplus values for longer, the crafty cunts. There not daft with there work ethic and work brings satisfaction rhetoric. The more people buy into that rhetoric and the more that people who dont work are demonised the better it is for the Capitalists.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The vote, IMO, will split like:

1. Labour - in constituencies where Labour will be returned come what may - but they will make a disappointing number of gains with their target seats either going to the LibDems or the Conservatives. I think that they will get fewer seats than the 2017 GE.

2. Conservatives - will win their traditional strongholds - with only a relatively few seats lost to the LibDems

3. LibDems in a few Remain dominated seats where the polling shows that there is a chance of LibDems getting a majority so therefore taking some seats from the Conservatives - but perhaps more from Labour. I do not see any chance of a Lib/Lab deal before or after the GE result.

4. Conservatives in sufficient marginals to win a majority

5. Not bothering about the SNP because that is obvious - although a clean sweep is not a given. I do most of my work in Scotland and there is more commitment to the Union than people might believe because they only hear the SNP views.

All this has become obvious to Labour who now want the election but first want/need to burst the Johnson bubble / momentum and ideally embarrass him by failing to deliver on his do or die promises. That is because a few percentage points reduced for Johnson probably makes the difference between a Labour or Tory PM. So they will run for cover - taking refuge in the 'we must stop no-deal' mantra whilst they seek to do that. They will want him to stew and look flummoxed for a while so that any gloss and feeling of drive evaporates in the minds of the voters.

I think that in private the Labour leadership must be feeling very frustrated and concerned - their current leadership have been waiting for this opportunity for many years and have been confident for years. All of a sudden it could go pear shaped as they get squeezed between both the Conservatives and the LibDems in a buoyant state - but they have little choice but to take their chance.

If 4. does not happen then a post GE minority Labour government will at least see constraints placed on McDonnell's excesses. There will be utter paralysis - same if it is a minority Conservative government.

So the games in the coming weeks will be interesting. People like to think that Johnson is a clown - but some people behind him are not and therefore some of this do or die mantra must be against some intended ploy. Having read the new legislation it seems 'watertight' to me - but there must be some gambit that I cannot see that is going to be played now that parliament is prorogued - at least I would hope so.

If he does not win the GE then Brexit is consigned to the bin and he is toast - so his planning beyond that must be on the assumption that he will win.

You have failed to mention Farage and the BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties - especially given BoJo can not now leave on the 31st without doing something stupid. Most brexit voters voted tory to start with, most labour voters voted to remain - if they all decamp to BXP then that is worse for tories than it is for labour. The idea that tories will clean up in traditional labour voting brexit towns is overplayed.

The tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies.

It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The people are often wrong mate, we are just obliged to carry out and live with the consequences. And no one is saying the people cannot have a say. The election has been put off for a month not cancelled and do you actually think it made sense to have an election two weeks away from a potential economic meltdown?

Everyone wants it ‘sorted’. It will never be sorted. Any form of Brexit requires us to either get minced in perpetual negations with the EU or at best become a passive rule taker with no say in the decision making process. Johnson is still pretending that he will be working to secure a deal on Oct 17 when the leaders meet. Yet he will be told to leave the room when Brexit is discussed. They meet to discuss their position on Brexit. They do not negotiate Brexit with the U.K. That is the job of the man they appointed to do the work on their behalf.

The only chance we have of ‘sorting it’ is revoking A50 which brings the fight back to where it really belongs. The U.K. This is a domestic nervous breakdown dressed up as an international negotiation. All we have done in three years is soil ourselves in public. At least let us have the decency to try and resolve our issues behind closed doors.

I might have mentioned it before.
Sort yourselves out.

 

[west didsblue]

You have failed to mention Farage and the BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties - especially given BoJo can not now leave on the 31st without doing something stupid. Most brexit voters voted tory to start with, most labour voters voted to remain - if they all decamp to BXP then that is worse for tories than it is for labour. The idea that tories will clean up in traditional labour voting brexit towns is overplayed.

The tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies.

It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses.

There will probably be a Tory/BXP alliance which should increase the overall number of seats these two parties get but will scare off any one nation Tories into either abstaining or voting Lib Dem. The opposition are going to have to be really careful that their vote isn't split too badly in marginal constituencies or the Tories could win with a seat in government for Farage.

 

[Damocles]

That's a decent post, although I feel Social Democracy has been hijacked by Liberal Democracy and I am not particularly Liberal, I am probably more small C conservative. Capitalism has survived for the reason nobody has yet to find a system to replace it and those with the most to lose from Capitalism do not want it replacing. An alternative, Communism descended into authoritarianism and is now tainted by that association. A quick look on here sees the power of Macarthyism and the reds under the bed scare stories. The capitalists did a great job discrediting it. "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" never had a chance thanks to the power of the rapacious capitalists. Post scarcity economic theory does not allow much room for profiteering. Hence the desperate attempts by Capitalists to privatise scarce resources. Oil, water gas etc for instance all in the hands of the Capitalists.

Capitalism also demands people work and we are seeing people now working more than ever for less, therefore exploiting workers surplus values for longer, the crafty cunts. There not daft with there work ethic and work brings satisfaction rhetoric. The more people buy into that rhetoric and the more that people who dont work are demonised the better it is for the Capitalists.

I've been interested in the idea of an automation led post-scarcity economy for a while but I still struggle seeing how we can achieve such a thing without a worldwide Government. This is one of the reasons that I voted Remain - I feel that ultimately it will lead me to my preferred societal model. When nation states compete for human and natural resources then an equitable share cannot happen. With a single state, with a single benefits system, tax rate, transport policy and healthcare system then a vast majority of the crony capitalism disappears. You build a copper processing plant where the copper mines are because it costs less to move. And the entire world trades on a single currency so a world minimum wage becomes possible. It spreads the wealth of the world across the world but then if you think of the potential gains in scientific and economic terms, it would be such a massive step forward. Imagine a world where we only needed small militias to stop local disturbances rather than huge stockpiles to fight wars. Imagine what we could do with that economic saving. Imagine what new discoveries we could make if we were able to raise the other continents to the scientific standards of the Western education systems. A excellent university in every town in Africa.

One of my issues with both capitalism and to a smaller extent other systems, is that they both value the individual as a product of their labour. This is a mindset that so many people are trapped in and I find it extremely hard to discuss things with people on the theoretical basis that the value of labour and the value of a human are not tied as its pretty much underpins our entire society across almost all political shades.

Immigration is probably a good way of looking at this. A "points based" system literally values the importance of somebody based on their economic output to the country and there's something extremely distasteful and possibly bordering on evil when you reduce the complexity of a value of a person down to this.

Attempting to quantify humanity as an economically valuable trait makes my skin crawl. Whether that be the moral definition of humanity or the labour based one or the creative based one. Ranking people ultimately leads to haves and have nots, greaters and lessers. It is not just our economic and moral systems that require extensive development to achieve something as positive as a post-scarcity economy but also our entire view on our species, the psychology of the animal kingdom and the way that we have designed our societies.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

There will probably be a Tory/BXP alliance which should increase the overall number of seats these two parties get but will scare off any one nation Tories into either abstaining or voting Lib Dem. The opposition are going to have to be really careful that their vote isn't split too badly in marginal constituencies or the Tories could win with a seat in government for Farage.

Possible - but voters / seats gained in brexity areas will be at the expense of voters / seats lost in remain heartlands who will be less than impressed with a BoJo/Farage coalition. It would be net gains but it's as appealing as a pint of sick at tory HQ so not a given and not without it's implications.

 

[west didsblue]

Possible - but voters / seats gained in brexity areas will be at the expense of voters / seats lost in remain heartlands who will be less than impressed with a BoJo/Farage coalition. It would be net gains but it's as appealing as a pint of sick at tory HQ so not a given and not without it's implications.

Not convinced. The Tory membership have shown how Brexity they are and the leadership are already moving to reflect their base, starting with the purge of dissenters. It won't be long before they're fully aligned with the BXP. The ERG already are.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

If you want a second referendum then let the people put in a government to deliver it!

If the people want a no deal government then let them vote for it!

If the people want a socialist government then let them vote for it!

What is the problem and why do you fear a general election right this second now?

Because the Conservatives need to sip at the poisoned chalice just one more time and then be placed on the trash heap of politics having been seen to be the bunch of lying self serving shysters they are...........plus we don't trust Johnson and the ERG as far as we could throw them.

 

[mat]

You have failed to mention Farage and the BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties - especially given BoJo can not now leave on the 31st without doing something stupid. Most brexit voters voted tory to start with, most labour voters voted to remain - if they all decamp to BXP then that is worse for tories than it is for labour. The idea that tories will clean up in traditional labour voting brexit towns is overplayed.

The tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies.

It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses.

Silver linings.

It would be even better if they end up becoming the third party at the next GE.

 

[Chris in London]

You have failed to mention Farage and the BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties - especially given BoJo can not now leave on the 31st without doing something stupid. Most brexit voters voted tory to start with, most labour voters voted to remain - if they all decamp to BXP then that is worse for tories than it is for labour. The idea that tories will clean up in traditional labour voting brexit towns is overplayed.

The tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies.

It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses.

I agree with much of that.

I don’t know why people think that the Leave threat to the northern labour vote is equivalent to the remain threat to the southern Tory vote. My reading of the referendum result is that a lot of labour voting working class people voted leave as a great big fuck off to those who they saw as being responsible for the fact that their lives were shit - Cameron and Osborne in particular. If there was another referendum I would imagine a large number would vote the same way again. In a general election this November, however, their lives will still be just as shit, but I doubt many see leaving the EU as the pathway to the sunlit uplands. I suspect more see more value in voting the way they have always voted.

In the south, very few people people voted to remain out of deep love for the EU project. It was all about economics. I suspect in general people in the south will have a lot more to lose from a no deal exit than people in the north simply because of the way wealth tends to be spread (well, not spread) in this country. For that reason, I suspect a much larger number of remain tories will defect to the Lib Dem’s. Labour will not pick up remain votes in the south any more than Johnson will pick up Leave votes in the north. Like you, I imagine that the 21 ex tories will not be opposed by the Lib Dems and will largely be returned as independents to the same constituencies.

When push comes to shove, in other words, more working class leave voters will come home to labour in a general election than middle class remain voters will go home to the tories.

For all these reasons, I can imagine that post a general election the numbers in Parliament would not be too different to the way they look now - the tories being the single largest party but 30/40 seats short of a majority.

What happens next depends upon what kind of national unity program the rebel alliance can put together as a way out of this mess.