General Election - December 12th, 2019

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

The 'things you know about' maybe will disappear with appropriate treatment but the Labour Party has at least made no foolish attempt to conceal the affinities and identities of its controlling comrades. It can achieve its straightforward Marxist objectives to ferment civil unrest and chaos behind the faux outrage of the likes of David Lammy currently orchestrating Momentum gangs before the real fun starts in an election campaign.

Seriously ..... you need help.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

All going to plan for the Comrades, losing a hugely divisive contest of extremes and doing irreparable damage to our democratic institutions in the process. Creating the chaotic conditions for their next assault.

Every social policy that you and yours benefit from have been introduced by a Labour or Socialist Government ...................EVERY SINGLE ONE.

 

[George Hannah]

Every social policy that you and yours benefit from have been introduced by a Labour or Socialist Government ...................EVERY SINGLE ONE.

Butler Education Act anybody?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Butler Education Act anybody?

TUPE? The DDA?

 

[mcfc1632]

You have failed to mention Farage and the BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties - especially given BoJo can not now leave on the 31st without doing something stupid. Most brexit voters voted tory to start with, most labour voters voted to remain - if they all decamp to BXP then that is worse for tories than it is for labour. The idea that tories will clean up in traditional labour voting brexit towns is overplayed.

The tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies.

It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses.

Wow - you are of course entitled to your opinion - but I think that you have not thought that through

1. "Many of the 21 now indi's will win as indies." ??????

Really - would love you to name a few and explain where they are going to stand why on earth you think that they are going to win

2. "........BXP. They will have an impact stealing brexit votes from both parties."

Really???, BXP has only one goal - I cannot see them impairing their opportunity to achieve that goal by fighting seats where they will damage that outcome - they will target the seats that have a strong Brexit support and will likely either win those or see Labour lose to LibDems due to a split Remain vote. Farage will look to get the credibility of a 'formal pact' but I think that will be resisted by the conservatives because BXP is not going to shoot itself in the foot

3. "It is easily conceivable that the Lib Dems will win 50 seats (that is simply taking back the seats they lost in the last 15 years). Most of these will be tory losses..."

Really?? - be good to hear your logic behind this - I think that you are badly wrong and clearly missing something obvious​

 

[mcfc1632]

Possible - but voters / seats gained in brexity areas will be at the expense of voters / seats lost in remain heartlands who will be less than impressed with a BoJo/Farage coalition. It would be net gains but it's as appealing as a pint of sick at tory HQ so not a given and not without it's implications.

Why would the Conservatives enter into a formal pact with BXP - they do not need to.

1. "....but voters / seats gained in brexity areas will be at the expense of voters / seats lost in remain heartlands who will be less than impressed with a BoJo/Farage coalition!

No that will not happen - an awful lot of Remain seats will still vote conservative because of the Corbyn effect. BXP will not be in a formal pact with the Conservatives. BXP will contest Brexit seats in the North and elsewhere where the Conservatives are unlikely to win and either win those seats - I see only a few of those - or there will be a split of the Remain vote so that Labour lose to the LibDems and occasionally the BXP

 

[mcfc1632]

Much of the Labour vote comes from the Northern leave areas and 60% of Labour seats originate in a leave constituency.

This is compared to the Tories where 70% of seats originate in a leave constituency.

Generally in the south and outside of London people voted leave AND they voted Tory so how will Labour win those seats?

It is just plain obvious that the Labour position on Brexit puts many seats at risk.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Good to read some sensible analysis

 

[mcfc1632]

Not strictly true. There was a big soft hole in the brexit support in 2016 around the home counties / M3 corridor and up to Oxford and Cambridge - that is tory heartlands. The tory pitch for Northern Labour Votes will be at the expense of its formerly safe seats. Labour voters were 65% in favour of remain - no guarantee that they will switch to back Tory. Much easier for a tory voter to shift to lib dem than it is for a Labour voter to switch to tory. Tory losses in Scotland are guaranteed but anything else is in the balance.

"The tory pitch for Northern Labour Votes will be at the expense of its formerly safe seats. Labour voters were 65% in favour of remain - no guarantee that they will switch to back Tory. Much easier for a tory voter to shift to lib dem than it is for a Labour voter to switch to tory."

Waaaay too simplistic IMO

This will be a GE not a referendum. In these Tory heartlands - preventing the risk of a Corbyn government is of far more importance than expressing preferences to Remain in the EU

 

[Ban-jani]

Correct, a rerun of the 70s - very tedious but still very dangerous - remember a Mrs Thatcher at all? Not everything you read in the papers is untrue.

We weren’t a communist state in the 70’s, you’re exaggerating again and Labour’s manifesto isn’t as left wing as the make up of the UK in the 70’s.

In fact it wouldn’t be out of place in other European countries that have higher living standards than us.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

"The tory pitch for Northern Labour Votes will be at the expense of its formerly safe seats. Labour voters were 65% in favour of remain - no guarantee that they will switch to back Tory. Much easier for a tory voter to shift to lib dem than it is for a Labour voter to switch to tory."

Waaaay to simplistic IMO

This will be a GE not a referendum. In these Tory heartlands - preventing the risk of a Corbyn government is of far more importance than expressing preferences to Remain in the EU

Under our anachronistic and inequitable electoral system, GE's are never won and lost in Tory (or Labour) heartlands. The battle will be fought and determined in a relatively small number of marginal constituencies. The present situation may warp that axiom a little, but I'm sure it will still hold true; especially given the prevailing mathematics in parliament.