General Election - December 12th, 2019

[The perfect fumble]

An election would potentially deliver a stronger leave presence which surely no-one wants? The Tories would likely deselect problem MP's and pressure MP's like Soubry will likely lose their seats.

It won't boil down to party level like everyone thinks. The make up of seats and who in particular wins those seats is extremely important and is all that matters.

Even if the Tories don't gain a majority but return the exact same seats then it is over because they could have 316 leavers fully behind Johnson instead of the current bare majority with faction split.

If you want to stop no deal then an election is quite possibly the worst way to go about it.

Remainers underestimated the forces that were at work in the referendum and I really do think they are doing it again.

I'm not so sure this time around.

Johnson is promising money, money, money, because he remembers what happened to May in 2017.

May wanted that election to be about Brexit and Labour made it about austerity, Johnson is trying to outflank that by shaking the money tree at everything.

It may well come down to whether anyone believes his promises.

Corbyn has been criticised for not embracing remain, and has lost support to the Lib Dems because of it, but he'll go in to any election promising a referendum on his negotiated terms versus remain, he might not have the blood and guts of remain versus leave but it might find traction.

Much hinges on the Lib Dems.

In the end Swinson might well do for Corbyn what Farage could do to Johnson, but won't.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

An election would potentially deliver a stronger leave presence which surely no-one wants? The Tories would likely deselect problem MP's and pressure MP's like Soubry will likely lose their seats.

It won't boil down to party level like everyone thinks. The make up of seats and who in particular wins those seats is extremely important and is all that matters.

Even if the Tories don't gain a majority but return the exact same seats then it is over because they could have 316 leavers fully behind Johnson instead of the current bare majority with faction split.

If you want to stop no deal then an election is quite possibly the worst way to go about it.

Remainers underestimated the forces that were at work in the referendum and I really do think they are doing it again.

There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the outcome of a GE.

From within the political bubble it may seem a good idea to Boris but the recent by elections have seen Labour hold a hard core leave seat when the former MP was convicted + forced out. Then in a similar tory seat the Lib dems won defeating the sitting tory. In some resolute remain heartlands like Scotland Tory's are screwed. This and the fact that a no deal brexit has sub 30% support in the polls generally means that BoJo is on dodgy ground.

The only thing that works in his favor is the split among remainers to vote for a labour (Corbyn) or clear remain alliance candidate. Labour have the numbers and core support but a toxic leader and murky brexit policy, the alliance have the right policy but in many seats are starting from way back. Every Labour seat is up against it because of Corbyn but at the same time every seat where the Lib Dems have some history of decent support is very much starting from a very good place - the issue will be how much momentum builds for the remain alliance and or labour. In a 3 way fight for around 100 or even 200 seats the overall outcome is almost impossible to predict. And this assumes that Farage effectively downs tools because of BoJo's stance. If it becomes a 4 way fight then I would predict a net loss of seats for both Tory and Labour.

 

[The perfect fumble]

And they won't wherever the Tory candidate is on side. The remainder/anti-no deal Tories will lose the whip and therefore cannot stand. New onside candidates will be selected. Brexit Party will fight leave labour seats and will pick up a few. Con/brexit will have the numbers in the end.

A forced GE was always Bojos trump card because the people vs parliament is a delicious line to run on given how shabby the current crop of MPs on both sides are.

1653 all over again.

You might find such a prospect delicious and I hope that over confidence is shared by right wingers everywhere.

 

[cibaman]

The Brexit Party says hi.

That is 12 to 15% of the vote that May got that Johnson ain’t getting back.

A fair chunk of that will be at Labour's expense

 

[hgblue]

Why would Farage not stand? What does Farage get out of that? Or do you mean only stand in Labour seats? In which case the same applies. Brexit Party votes come predominantly from Tory voters. Brexit Party standing in Labour seats mainly dilutes the Tory vote.

The Brexit Party will stay away from standing Tory MPs who have backed the PM this week, and stay away from key Tory target seats where the candidate is pro-Brexit. The Remainer Tories will be deselected and the sweetest bit is that they are going to stick their own necks on the chopping board. Boris agrees to leave the Labour Leave areas for the Brexit party to mop up. Job done.

 

[George Hannah]

There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the outcome of a GE.

From within the political bubble it may seem a good idea to Boris but the recent by elections have seen Labour hold a hard core leave seat when the former MP was convicted + forced out. Then in a similar tory seat the Lib dems won defeating the sitting tory. In some resolute remain heartlands like Scotland Tory's are screwed. This and the fact that a no deal brexit has sub 30% support in the polls generally means that BoJo is on dodgy ground.

The only thing that works in his favor is the split among remainers to vote for a labour (Corbyn) or clear remain alliance candidate. Labour have the numbers and core support but a toxic leader and murky brexit policy, the alliance have the right policy but in many seats are starting from way back. Every Labour seat is up against it because of Corbyn but at the same time every seat where the Lib Dems have some history of decent support is very much starting from a very good place - the issue will be how much momentum builds for the remain alliance and or labour. In a 3 way fight for around 100 or even 200 seats the overall outcome is almost impossible to predict. And this assumes that Farage effectively downs tools because of BoJo's stance. If it becomes a 4 way fight then I would predict a net loss of seats for both Tory and Labour.

perfect plan - party purification plus proletariat prolapse

 

[The perfect fumble]

Why would Farage not stand? What does Farage get out of that? Or do you mean only stand in Labour seats? In which case the same applies. Brexit Party votes come predominantly from Tory voters. Brexit Party standing in Labour seats mainly dilutes the Tory vote.

The Brexit Party is a single issue spoiler party, but Johnson has stolen the Brexit Party's clothes and Farage knows it.

Farage will only stand if he thinks Johnson is going to betray hard Brexit, and even if he does suspect Johnson is up for betrayal, he's hardly going to screw Johnson over and let Corbyn in.

Farage will never say it, but when push comes to shove he'll make a calculated decision that half a loaf is better than none.

 

[BobKowalski]

The Brexit Party will stay away from standing Tory MPs who have backed the PM this week, and stay away from key Tory target seats where the candidate is pro-Brexit. The Remainer Tories will be deselected and the sweetest bit is that they are going to stick their own necks on the chopping board. Boris agrees to leave the Labour Leave areas for the Brexit party to mop up. Job done.

Majority of Leave voters in Labour leave seats don’t vote Labour. How does splitting the non Labour vote between the Brexit Party and the Tories defeat Labour? And Johnson can’t stand down Tories in Labour seats. All that does is say the Tories are done as a national party. And why does anyone think Farage trusts Johnson on Brexit anyway? And what sort of Brexit are the Tories campaigning on? Brexit with a deal which Farage is now saying is a betrayal or no deal Brexit which half the country think is mad?

 

[Gelsons Dad]

You might find such a prospect delicious and I hope that over confidence is shared by right wingers everywhere.

17.4 million people voted to leave. Of those who didn't there are many who find the defiance of democracy intolerable. Those 2 demographics far outnumber the hardcore remainers who claim to be anti-no deal. Their cover was blown long ago. A manifesto of "taking back control of parliament" "enacting the will of the people" will piss a GE.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The Brexit Party will stay away from standing Tory MPs who have backed the PM this week, and stay away from key Tory target seats where the candidate is pro-Brexit. The Remainer Tories will be deselected and the sweetest bit is that they are going to stick their own necks on the chopping board. Boris agrees to leave the Labour Leave areas for the Brexit party to mop up. Job done.

Farage has already committed to fighting every seat and has been taking money of prospective candidates who intend to stand.

He has built a machine (albeit in a shady / cheap way) to fight every seat. Is he really going to back track from that and stand down in the biggest pro brexit contests and refund money to people who think they are being lined up as candidates...