Chippy_boy
Well-Known Member
You're agreeing with me shat the "other" parties will split the Labour and Tory votes.1979 Tories 13.7m votes 339 seats, Labour 11.5m votes 269 seats, Liberals 4.3 m votes 11 seats
1983 Tories 13.0 m votes 397 seats, Labour 8.5m votes 209 seats, Alliance 7.8 m votes 23 seats
The SDP had a huge influence on the outcome, at least in terms of the Tory majority, without winning that many seats. The tories are more vulnerable than labour to losing seats to the Lib Dem’s but perversely could benefit from a Lib Dem revival. It all depends on how the Lib Dem and BXP votes are concentrated.
In normal circumstances the waivering LibDem voter would vote Labour. But these are not normal circumstances. Millions of Labour supporters can't bring themselves to vote Corbyn, so how many LibDems will, 3?
If Labour was the only party supporting a second referendum, then they might conceivably pick up devout Remainer LibDems. But since Ref2 is core LibDem policy, there's no chance of that.
Just ask yourself, why on earth would any LibDem voter vote Labour? Brexit leaning LibDems will vote Tory and Remain leaning LibDems will vote LibDem.
The only exception would be expats such as SWP who doesn't have to suffer the consequences of a Corbyn-led omni-shambles, or tactical voters. And in reality there is few of either. The Remain vote is going to be split horribly between the two parties.