We play first on Sunday. If we have dropped points against Newcastle, they don't need to win by 4 or 5, a 1-0 win is enough for them. If we beat Newcastle, you may see the rags hurtling forward trying to score 4 or 5 against Swansea, but if they do they will leave themselves open at the back. They might score 5 but they might let in 2. Then again, they might let in 4 like they did against Everton.
Newcastle and QPR both have to go for the win, so there is more of a chance they will leave spaces open for us to exploit, especially if we play with the same front 6 - and I think we will.
You're right not to be complacent, none of us are, and it isn't impossible that the rags will do it, but it really isn't at all likely that we will win twice and they will overtake us on goal difference.
Six points and its ours.