Okay then lets say I accept that ( I don’t) , so what’s the answer ? We are down in the shit at some point we. Have to pull ourselves out and progress to repairing the partnership with the EU. What’s that pathway, what’s the new deal? as you seem to be ruling out all options and accepting that we stay up to our necks in the shit deal we negotiated ourselves into.
Unless of course you think this version of Brexit is all wine and roses.
You obviously don’t have to accept my word for it regarding NI, but I’m afraid it’s an unfortunate truth that NI isn’t in the single market proper, and that it’s ‘membership’ only relates to goods and customs procedures.
NI only enjoys this limited access to EU goods markets because it/NI accepts ECJ jurisdiction over these issues - as part of the broader withdrawal agreement - which mainland UK couldn’t unilaterally adopt. So replicating NI without a treaty change is a complete non-starter for mainland UK.
I don’t think the current version of Brexit is all wine and roses, but I have always believed that once there was a vote to leave, the UK would have little choice but to end up roughly in the current situation.
EEA membership would leave the UK with zero influence over the regulations which govern the overwhelming majority of its economy, which is a frankly ludicrous situation for a major economy and not a realistic solution. Plus the EEA doesn’t cover the customs union, so it’s incomplete. The current situation could in theory be improved at the margin by bilateral agreements on specific issues. But you could easily exaggerate the scope for this to happen and we aren’t going to get a major re-write of the withdrawal agreement itself.
The unique issue of Brexit is that the UK and EU were perfectly aligned at the point of the withdrawal agreement. As the UK signs trade agreements with third countries, that situation will change and make realignment with the EU harder and present more trade barriers with the EU.
Presumably the first step will be for the government of the day to no longer pursue these third country agreements, before a more serious political discussion starts around rejoining the EU. That’s a political process that will probably take many years and a variety of factors will influence whether it happens or not. But my view is if you don’t like the current situation the only durable change is to re-join the EU proper, and if you don’t want to rejoin the EU then where we are now is basically it.
