How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

bluethrunthru said:
Hot on the heels of yesterdays " they all get free cars " lafy we have another fantasist making it up as they go along - giveaways are -

1/ If my Dad had been say Asst General Secretary of the T&GWU I'd have remembered that specifically
2/ I dawns on him that he has no answers so jumps around like a cat on a hot tin roof from topic to topic because he has no real answers but cannot bring himself to admit he was duped.

An old fool

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Depressing to listen to tbh.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I think you are wrong for a number of reasons.

Firstly, it was 52/48 last time; this slim majority was caused principally by the apathy of the under 30s. That won’t happen again. I think any apathy will be more readily attributed to those that voted to leave, given how it’s turned out.

Secondly, the effluxion of time since 2016 means that many of the people who voted to leave have died and have been ‘replaced’ by those that will want to rejoin. I know that people become more conservative as they get older, but I’m not sure that will so readily apply here. Certainly I cannot see many people who voted remain being converted to thinking leaving was a good idea, which is what would have to occur for that maxim to remain the case here.

Thirdly, there is a tendency to characterise everyone as an obdurate leaver or remainer, but the truth is that many (maybe 10%) were highly equivocal and could see the benefits in both arguments. Any shifting pattern in those voters is only going to go one way.

Fourthly, the world, and Europe, was a far more certain place in 2016, and probably emboldened some people to throw the dice of isolationism in a way that they wouldn’t today in a post Covid world. The comfort blanket of the EU, in a Europe at war, would be persuasive to some.

All those factors, combined with the disaster that it‘s proving to be, and the weakening state of the UK economy means a majority vote to retain the status quo is inconceivable, irrespective of the gullible rump to which you refer, some of whom (although certainly not all) won’t be fooled twice.

I would be prepared to put my house deposit, that I’ve been working like a dog for the last three years to save up, on that outcome. Maybe not 60% but definitely a majority.

It’s simple maths.
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Tbh GDM while I agree with everything you've said, on a personal basis I'd like to see a super-majority vote from the UK electorate in favour of rejoining before letting ye lot back in, just to feel comfortable that it would be at least a generation before going through all that bollocks again.
 
aguero93:20 said:
Tbh GDM while I agree with everything you've said, on a personal basis I'd like to see a super-majority vote from the UK electorate in favour of rejoining before letting ye lot back in, just to feel comfortable that it would be at least a generation before going through all that bollocks again.
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I agree, though what percentage would constitute a super-majority vote? Alternatively, electoral reform in the U.K. might reduce the likelihood of either political extremity wielding power and suggest to the EU that it is anchored in the centre. Maybe both would be needed.
 
Gabriel said:
I agree, though what percentage would constitute a super-majority vote? Alternatively, electoral reform in the U.K. might reduce the likelihood of either political extremity wielding power and suggest to the EU that it is anchored in the centre. Maybe both would be needed.
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Supermajority is 67%, I've always said as well I'd like to see the same for Irish reunification.
 
aguero93:20 said:
Supermajority is 67%, I've always said as well I'd like to see the same for Irish reunification.
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Can be higher can be lower (the Scots, with 60%, technically had a supermajority for staying within the European Union), but I think your figure would be reasonable for the whole UK.
 
Gabriel said:
Can be higher can be lower (the Scots, with 60%, technically had a supermajority for staying within the European Union), but I think your figure would be reasonable for the whole UK.
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At that level it will never happen in the next millenium. 67%?

People forget how many loons there are in the UK that will believe any old rubbish.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
The simple answer is that letting a contrite and more subservient UK back in, especially one that had gone through a painful divorce with Scotland and was prepared to sacrifice the pound, would bolster the status and endurance of the EU. It would make them look simultaneously benevolent and powerful; and us foolish for choosing to leave in the first place. That will be hard for member states to resist (after some hard negotiations).

The likes of Farage would have ultimately caused this subservience and the loss of the pound, which could attenuate, rather than amplify their voices. Careful what you wish for, Nige.

Sadly, we will have to fall much further, and become far more desperate for this to be remotely plausible.

Views can change profoundly and relatively quickly if the ingredients are correct. Assuming the vote would be 60/40 tomorrow to rejoin (which I think is about right), and the invisible hand of demographic change continues in the same direction, in a decade of so over two thirds of the UK population could realistically want us to rejoin. That number will also be difficult to resist, even if it means ditching the pound.
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I'm not sure you're right. The UK won't be voting to go back to the old situation with the EU, less the pound, it will be applying to join anew, and all the rules and legislation that apply to new members will apply to the UK:
The Euro,
Schengen,
CFR (rights charter)
and security and freedom (AFSJ)
Combined, they will probably win it for the "No" side for the next 3-4 decades.

Secondly, both Labour and the Tories are split on the EU. I find it hard to see a Gov't in power long enough to push through a referendum and a negotiation to rejoin.
 
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blueish swede said:
I'm not sure you're right. The UK won't be voting to go back to the old situation with the EU, less the pound, it will be applying to join anew and all the rules and legislation that apply to new members will apply to the UK:
The Euro,
Schengen,
CFR (rights charter)
and security and freedom (AFSJ)
Combined, they will probably win it for the "No" side for the next 3-4 decades.

Secondly, both Labour and the Tories are split on the EU. I find it hard to see a Gov't in power long enough to push through a referendum and a negotiation to rejoin.
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A Scottish Government might with a friendly following wind.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
At that level it will never happen in the next millenium. 67%?

People forget how many loons there are in the UK that will believe any old rubbish.
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I also don’t think that the EU would be seen to push for that number either, and having exited on a tight vote, there’s no way a UK government could now stipulate that a supermajority would be required.
 
blueish swede said:
I'm not sure you're right. The UK won't be voting to go back to the old situation with the EU, less the pound, it will be applying to join anew and all the rules and legislation that apply to new members will apply to the UK:
The Euro,
Schengen,
CFR (rights charter)
and security and freedom (AFSJ)
Combined, they will probably win it for the "No" side for the next 3-4 decades.

Secondly, both Labour and the Tories are split on the EU. I find it hard to see a Gov't in power long enough to push through a referendum and a negotiation to rejoin.
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It might have to accept some and commit to others, but I suspect the EU would want the U.K. back in if possible. It would probably go some way to offsetting the incorporation of Ukraine (God willing) over the next half century.
 
Gabriel said:
It might have to accept some and commit to others, but I suspect the EU would want the U.K. back in if possible. It would probably go some way to offsetting the incorporation of Ukraine (God willing) over the next half century.
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We are going to have to demonstrate to 27 countries that at another election we won't do all Brexitty again - if we can't be serious and committed none of them will be interested in us
 
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bluethrunthru said:
We are going to have to demonstrate to 27 countries that at another election we won't do all Brexitty again - if we can't be serious and committed none of them will be interested in us
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If the situation does arise, then the tone set by successive U.K. governments would be crucial. They could not return with cold feet or see the country as a drag parachute on further integration. As I mentioned above, since the U.K. left, the rate of integration has accelerated and fresh ideas have been adopted quite quickly. A new member, even an old one, could not expect that rate to suddenly be slowed, so its governments would be expected to be positive advocates.
 
The irony is that Schengen actually gives better control over who comes into the country. BUT - and it's big but, the UK needs to accept compulsory ID cards for everyone (not just foreigners) and the Government then needs to be sufficiently arsed to enforce the controls available under EU law - which it never could be arsed to do when we were in the EU!
 
blueish swede said:
I'm not sure you're right. The UK won't be voting to go back to the old situation with the EU, less the pound, it will be applying to join anew, and all the rules and legislation that apply to new members will apply to the UK:
The Euro,
Schengen,
CFR (rights charter)
and security and freedom (AFSJ)
Combined, they will probably win it for the "No" side for the next 3-4 decades.

Secondly, both Labour and the Tories are split on the EU. I find it hard to see a Gov't in power long enough to push through a referendum and a negotiation to rejoin.
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Things can change very substantially in a decade if the conditions are right. You only have to look at the collapse of communism. Can’t see it being sooner then that, but it could be easily less than 30-40 years. Maybe we just need to learn some fucking humility first.
 
BrianW said:
The irony is that Schengen actually gives better control over who comes into the country. BUT - and it's big but, the UK needs to accept compulsory ID cards for everyone (not just foreigners) and the Government then needs to be sufficiently arsed to enforce the controls available under EU law - which it never could be arsed to do when we were in the EU!
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Just imagine what a help ID cards would be to all those scared of people coming here. I mean you could let people come across on ferries rather than dinghies then ask to see their ID........ its not rocket science is it?
 
BrianW said:
The irony is that Schengen actually gives better control over who comes into the country. BUT - and it's big but, the UK needs to accept compulsory ID cards for everyone (not just foreigners) and the Government then needs to be sufficiently arsed to enforce the controls available under EU law - which it never could be arsed to do when we were in the EU!
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Their adoption even now would go some way to choking the UK’s black economy and turning the illegal migration tap off- ending the ‘invasion’ if you will. However,very few Conservatives on the right would advocate for their introduction because they actually prefer a degree of black economy and because they know that their introduction might make re-joining the EU easier.
 
Few variables of how much of that apathy 'vote' (who were likely a mix of many reasons for not voting) were comprised of e.g. little faith in voting, expecting a guaranteed Remain vote, not arsed...).
Add that to (I'd imagine at this stage) a malnourished leave vote and I feel there'd be a clear swing.

But absolutely concur with lots above. Perhaps too early for Labour to go there and I think we really need to go rock bottom (as much as this nation) can before a return is mooted.
That punishment needs to be as tangible as possible and these right wing ideologues (and those they empowered, albeit briefly) rammed back into their noncey bonces.
Downside of this is we've all suffered and the plan to polarise people is all but complete, but that's also an wider issue.

Certainly feels like we'll be a changed nation after all this: not just Brexit but the fall out from the poundland Machiavellis behind this car crash.
Could be wrong of course.
 
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