If we look at the table this morning Leicester would end the season with 84 points and Arsenal with 80 if both teams were to maintain form until May. Not since 2010-11 would 84 points win the PL and only on two occasions since would 80 points secure the runners up spot. Indeed Arsenal are only doing a bit better than they have done (on average) in the last four seasons. It is City (and other teams) which are doing considerably worse than in past seasons: if City continue at the present rate we will finish the season with 71 points - the same as in May 2011 when we were third! This is much lower than in any season since then. The trouble is the famous "trajectory of results": we started the season with five straight wins but since then have taken only 17 points from 12 matches, which equates to only 54 points in a season. This would have put us 7th in 2010-11 and only 9th last season. It doesn't take a genius to point out that you don't need to do the maths to know that City are playing nowhere near the level required to win the title in any season.
Reasons for some hope are that injuries, suspensions and the conditions of January and February may take their toll on Leicester, whose squad is not the largest and may suffer from battle fatigue. Arsenal are not in scintillating form, or showing us anything they haven't done before. No other team has a squad that matches ours for depth or ability - when we play well. We have suffered our injury crisis and we can hope for fewer problems in that domain. Again this confirms what we already know - if City can select hteir best players regularly and if these players are in anything like their best form their is no gap between us and any other club which cannot be closed and better. But we have to hit form soon and a good festive period would be a major first step. It's still on the cards and I refuse to give up. We are Manchester City and we do fight to the end.
