Irish Current Affairs

mancity2012_eamo said:
They certainly can’t shake that perception off, anyway.
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I'm a half Irish, nominal Catholic but I'm not a Republican supporter. I think a united Ireland makes sense in the long term but I can't see it happening for decades as on both sides politics is intertwined with Republicans & Loyalists and clearly rightful bitterness exists on both sides of the divide.

You hear people glibly say a united ireland is inevitable due to demographics but they fail to realise that a united Ireland would have about a 20% Unionist minority population. I imagine most of them could accept it but hardline Loyalists definitely wouldn't and I don't see the Gardai or the Irish army being up to taking on a determined campaign of violence.

I'd be interested in what you think the general feeling about it and if it really is something the electorate craves.
 
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Ardwick Green Blue said:
I'm a half Irish, nominal Catholic but I'm not a Republican supporter. I think a united Ireland makes sense in the long term but I can't see it happening for decades as on both sides politics is intertwined with Republicans & Loyalists and clearly rightful bitterness exists on both sides of the divide.

You hear people glibly say a united ireland is inevitable due to demographics but they fail to realise that a united Ireland would have about a 20% Unionist minority population. I imagine most of them could accept it but hardline Loyalists definitely wouldn't and I don't see the Gardai or the Irish army being up to taking on a determined campaign of violence.

I'd be interested in what you think the general feeling about it and if it really is something the electorate craves.
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You're probably looking at closer to 12% Unionist, but the important figure is what percentage of those would be hardliners and/or open to being radicalised. If it's a small enough proportion without any significant community support then they wouldn't be able to build any momentum as the era since the GFA has shown.
 
aguero93:20 said:
You're probably looking at closer to 12% Unionist, but the important figure is what percentage of those would be hardliners and/or open to being radicalised. If it's a small enough proportion without any significant community support then they wouldn't be able to build any momentum as the era since the GFA has shown.
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Possibly but that would require a large proportion of the Unionist population to be in favour of it. What if say 70% voted against it but overall a majority of the entire electorate voted in favour of a united Ireland? This is the most likely outcome if there were to be a referendum.
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
I'm a half Irish, nominal Catholic but I'm not a Republican supporter. I think a united Ireland makes sense in the long term but I can't see it happening for decades as on both sides politics is intertwined with Republicans & Loyalists and clearly rightful bitterness exists on both sides of the divide.

You hear people glibly say a united ireland is inevitable due to demographics but they fail to realise that a united Ireland would have about a 20% Unionist minority population. I imagine most of them could accept it but hardline Loyalists definitely wouldn't and I don't see the Gardai or the Irish army being up to taking on a determined campaign of violence.

I'd be interested in what you think the general feeling about it and if it really is something the electorate craves.
Click to expand...
This is something I've discussed a lot in here and other parts of the political forum, in particular with AlexWilliamsGloves.
You'd probably find a comprehensive (rambling) answer from me over the last ten pages or so.
In a nutshell though, I would have been of similar opinion to yourself that the question shouldn't be asked yet. I would have thought that another generation at least, need grow up in a normalised society. The GFA has provision for a border referendum, but it also provides for choice and identity and I personally don't think that any future solution that involves a 32 county Ireland, should be kneejerk as a result of Brexit.
A future Ireland if it is going to be viable as a peaceful prosperous society is going to have to be every bit as innovative and inclusive of identity as the GFA is.
Never mind purely economic arguments either. When talking of nationality, it is an emotive subject and this is something that should also be very much considered in the Scottish Independence debate in here. Same was true in the Brexit referendum in here as many leavers have pointed out. It wasn't purely about economics.

I think one of the major fallouts from Brexit is that it pushes this border referendum much higher up the agenda of the likes of Sinn Fein who are the only party to stand both North and South in elections.

I don't/haven't voted Sinn Fein, not purely because of their link to the past but basically because I don't know what future they stand for.
A lot of their social policy sounds great but they are sketchy on economic detail. Regarding the North however, I'm not confident that they would not rush prematurely towards their goal/prize without the consideration of what the result will look like.
 
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mancity2012_eamo said:
This is something I've discussed a lot in here and other parts of the political forum, in particular with AlexWilliamsGloves.
You'd probably find a comprehensive (rambling) answer from me over the last ten pages or so.
In a nutshell though, I would have been of similar opinion to yourself that the question shouldn't be asked yet. I would have thought that another generation at least, need grow up in a normalised society. The GFA has provision for a border referendum, but it also provides for choice and identity and I personally don't think that any future solution that involves a 32 county Ireland, should be kneejerk as a result of Brexit.
A future Ireland if it is going to be viable as a peaceful prosperous society is going to have to be every bit as innovative and inclusive of identity as the GFA is.
Never mind purely economic arguments either. When talking of nationality, it is an emotive subject and this is something that should also be very much considered in the Scottish Independence debate in here also. Same was true in the Brexit referendum in here as many leavers have pointed out. It wasn't purely about economics.

I think one of the major fallouts from Brexit is that it pushes this border referendum much higher up the agenda of the likes of Sinn Fein who are the only party to stand both North and South in elections.

I don't/haven't voted Sinn Fein, not purely because of their link to the past but basically because I don't know what future they stand for.
A lot of their social policy sounds great but they are sketchy on economic detail. Regarding the North however, I'm not confident that they would not rush prematurely towards their goal/prize without the consideration of what the result will look like.
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There are a lot of interesting points in your post, thanks.

I think that unless & until the overwhelming majority of Unionists are on board with a united Ireland it shouldn’t happen. Like you say, identity trumps economics but even from an economic viewpoint the cost to Ireland would be huge. The UK transfers multi-billion subsidies annually to the North and someone has to keep picking up the tab.

It will probably require a new generation of political parties on all sides so definitely not Sinn Fein and the DUP for starters.
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
There are a lot of interesting points in your post, thanks.

I think that unless & until the overwhelming majority of Unionists are on board with a united Ireland it shouldn’t happen. Like you say, identity trumps economics but even from an economic viewpoint the cost to Ireland would be huge. The UK transfers multi-billion subsidies annually to the North and someone has to keep picking up the tab.

It will probably require a new generation of political parties on all sides so definitely not Sinn Fein and the DUP for starters.
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As Eamo says, we've talked about this a fair bit...if you didnt know, to drastically over simplify things, you could say i come from a "perceived unionist background" here in Belfast....and although Eamo is from Dublin its easy to assume we have very different opinions when in fact we actually agree on most or nearly all things regarding Ireland....

There is a possibility (probability) of a reunified Ireland...but i dont think it (should) will be the 32 County Ireland people think of....regardless of the Unionist minority there will always be a UK/Unionist/GB "state" in the North. It may not be the final resolution, but the main change will be that the North would become part of a reunified Ireland, taking direction and rule from both Dublin and London...how the hell that would work i have no idea, but Brexit has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works......hence the fear and concern about the impact on the GFA
 
Given that the election takes place this weekend and the extent to which the outcome has implications for the UK - I was surprised that there was not a thread on this.

Perhaps there is not sufficient interest - although I personally have been monitoring how things are developing and we seem to have few posters based in Ireland.

I thought that this article provided helpful summary for those unaware of the status:

https://time.com/5778249/ireland-elections-2020/
 
mcfc1632 said:
Given that the election takes place this weekend and the extent to which the outcome has implications for the UK - I was surprised that there was not a thread on this.

Perhaps there is not sufficient interest - although I personally have been monitoring how things are developing and we seem to have few posters based in Ireland.

I thought that this article provided helpful summary for those unaware of the status:

https://time.com/5778249/ireland-elections-2020/
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mods may wish to merge this with the Irish politics thread.
 
@mcfc1632 expressed an interest in the Irish election and posted this in a new thread.
I don't know if the thread will be merged, but felt it appropriate to place the article in here.
https://time.com/5778249/ireland-elections-2020/

Saw Mary Lou on TV3 last night and as well as she performs, the damage is done by the Paul Quinn/Connor Murphy debacle.
Also the family were on the Stephen Nolan show on BBC NI last night and the apology is ringing a little hollow.

What I think this will do is it will put enough doubt in any wavering minds down south, of anyone who was contemplating taking a chance on Sinn Fein.
There is a definite desire for the changes being talked about on social issues by the more left leaning parties and independents.
Sinn Fein under Mary Lou are riding high on the crest of this, in the polls. This even surprised themselves and they haven't enough candidates prepped to stand.
I think when push comes to shove on Saturday a lot of that interest will think twice before entering the ballot booth.
They are still not trusted down south to be let loose in government. There is a feeling that at some stage if genuine change is to happen then the likes of them will have to be given a chance to prove themselves. But as on TV3 last night, they can't shake off the tag of being puppets to their masters behind the scenes up north, no matter how much they deny it.

The fact that that is what Mary Lou is explaining and answering now, is a set back. If your explaining you're losing.
She was riding high on sticking to the issues that were hurting Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, how much of a set back this is, will be interesting.
 
A few months ago things got heated in the Brexit Thread (no shit!), and i was trying to emphasise that to ignore/belittle the situation in Northern Ireland would be a grave over sight....if i remember correctly, what i was accused of exaggerating and that "we will never give in to terrorists"...and my experience was questioned and "trumped" by someone who knew someone who might have been affected by an incident, if they had been there.....

I was alluding to opinion that if there was a return to violence that it will most certainly be focussed on the GB, rather than NI...i (stupidly, and apologised) suggested it would take something to happen over there for people to take notice and perhaps start to understand the sensitivity and balance the peace process is sitting in.


Well, its starting....the threat was that a vehicle heading to GB had a bomb on it....the bomb was real, it was found, but luckily hadnt made the journey across.

The intent is there...the threat is real.


https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/...kCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Police say public were put at risk of 'possible death' after explosive device found attached to heavy goods vehicle
"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about"

Police say "Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device" to a heavy goods vehicle putting the public at serious risk of "injury and possibly death".

The device was found yesterday on a vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate and was later made safe by ATO colleagues.


In an appeal for information, the PSNI said "Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society”.

Detective Superintendent Sean Wright, PSNI’s Terrorism Investigation Unit said: “Following communications released by police yesterday, Wednesday, 5 February, of an explosive device in Silverwood Industrial Estate, Lurgan I can confirm that police first received a report on the evening of Friday, 31 January that an explosive device was in a lorry in Belfast docks.

"That report informed police that the lorry was due to travel by ferry to Scotland. Based on this information police conducted checks of the docks area and worked with the ferry company, Belfast Harbour authorities and Police Scotland to try to locate that device. After thorough checks nothing was found. The ferry sailed and arrived safely in Scotland.

“On the evening of Monday, 3 February, police received a further report that the explosive device had been attached to a lorry belonging to a named haulage company. This more detailed information enabled police to conduct focused investigations with the haulage company.

"Working throughout the evening of Monday, 3 February, and Tuesday, 4 February, police and the haulage company eliminated in the region of 400 vehicles in order to locate the explosive device. The device was subsequently found attached to a heavy goods vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate. That explosive device was made safe by ATO colleagues.

“It is clear from the information available to police that Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device to a heavy goods vehicle in the full knowledge and expectation that it would put the driver of that vehicle, road users and the wider public at serious risk of injury and possible death.

"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about. The only conclusion that we can draw is that once again Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society.”

Detective Superintendent Wright concluded: “My appeal today is for anyone who was in the area of Silverwood Industrial Estate between 4.00pm and 10.00pm on Friday, 31 January and who may have noticed any unusual activity in the area to contact police. In addition I ask that anyone who was driving in the area and who would have dash-cam footage around these same times that they contact police, as a matter of urgency.

“Police can be contacted on the non-emergency number 101. Alternatively, information can also be provided to the independent charity Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111, which is 100% anonymous and gives people the power to speak up and stop crime.”
 
Saddleworth2 said:
I certainly have been following it with a great deal of interest. The fact I don’t post just means I don’t know as much as you guys.
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There's a small group of posters but it may be of interest to others reading.
It's been reasonably cordial up until now. Personally I find other's take on events and history interesting to contemplate.
 
AlexWilliamsGloves said:
A few months ago things got heated in the Brexit Thread (no shit!), and i was trying to emphasise that to ignore/belittle the situation in Northern Ireland would be a grave over sight....if i remember correctly, what i was accused of exaggerating and that "we will never give in to terrorists"...and my experience was questioned and "trumped" by someone who knew someone who might have been affected by an incident, if they had been there.....

I was alluding to opinion that if there was a return to violence that it will most certainly be focussed on the GB, rather than NI...i (stupidly, and apologised) suggested it would take something to happen over there for people to take notice and perhaps start to understand the sensitivity and balance the peace process is sitting in.


Well, its starting....the threat was that a vehicle heading to GB had a bomb on it....the bomb was real, it was found, but luckily hadnt made the journey across.

The intent is there...the threat is real.


https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/...kCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Police say public were put at risk of 'possible death' after explosive device found attached to heavy goods vehicle
"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about"

Police say "Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device" to a heavy goods vehicle putting the public at serious risk of "injury and possibly death".

The device was found yesterday on a vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate and was later made safe by ATO colleagues.


In an appeal for information, the PSNI said "Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society”.

Detective Superintendent Sean Wright, PSNI’s Terrorism Investigation Unit said: “Following communications released by police yesterday, Wednesday, 5 February, of an explosive device in Silverwood Industrial Estate, Lurgan I can confirm that police first received a report on the evening of Friday, 31 January that an explosive device was in a lorry in Belfast docks.

"That report informed police that the lorry was due to travel by ferry to Scotland. Based on this information police conducted checks of the docks area and worked with the ferry company, Belfast Harbour authorities and Police Scotland to try to locate that device. After thorough checks nothing was found. The ferry sailed and arrived safely in Scotland.

“On the evening of Monday, 3 February, police received a further report that the explosive device had been attached to a lorry belonging to a named haulage company. This more detailed information enabled police to conduct focused investigations with the haulage company.

"Working throughout the evening of Monday, 3 February, and Tuesday, 4 February, police and the haulage company eliminated in the region of 400 vehicles in order to locate the explosive device. The device was subsequently found attached to a heavy goods vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate. That explosive device was made safe by ATO colleagues.

“It is clear from the information available to police that Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device to a heavy goods vehicle in the full knowledge and expectation that it would put the driver of that vehicle, road users and the wider public at serious risk of injury and possible death.

"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about. The only conclusion that we can draw is that once again Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society.”

Detective Superintendent Wright concluded: “My appeal today is for anyone who was in the area of Silverwood Industrial Estate between 4.00pm and 10.00pm on Friday, 31 January and who may have noticed any unusual activity in the area to contact police. In addition I ask that anyone who was driving in the area and who would have dash-cam footage around these same times that they contact police, as a matter of urgency.

“Police can be contacted on the non-emergency number 101. Alternatively, information can also be provided to the independent charity Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111, which is 100% anonymous and gives people the power to speak up and stop crime.”
Click to expand...

Sobering news. Nothing else to say to be honest.
 
AlexWilliamsGloves said:
A few months ago things got heated in the Brexit Thread (no shit!), and i was trying to emphasise that to ignore/belittle the situation in Northern Ireland would be a grave over sight....if i remember correctly, what i was accused of exaggerating and that "we will never give in to terrorists"...and my experience was questioned and "trumped" by someone who knew someone who might have been affected by an incident, if they had been there.....

I was alluding to opinion that if there was a return to violence that it will most certainly be focussed on the GB, rather than NI...i (stupidly, and apologised) suggested it would take something to happen over there for people to take notice and perhaps start to understand the sensitivity and balance the peace process is sitting in.


Well, its starting....the threat was that a vehicle heading to GB had a bomb on it....the bomb was real, it was found, but luckily hadnt made the journey across.

The intent is there...the threat is real.


https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/...kCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Police say public were put at risk of 'possible death' after explosive device found attached to heavy goods vehicle
"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about"

Police say "Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device" to a heavy goods vehicle putting the public at serious risk of "injury and possibly death".

The device was found yesterday on a vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate and was later made safe by ATO colleagues.


In an appeal for information, the PSNI said "Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society”.

Detective Superintendent Sean Wright, PSNI’s Terrorism Investigation Unit said: “Following communications released by police yesterday, Wednesday, 5 February, of an explosive device in Silverwood Industrial Estate, Lurgan I can confirm that police first received a report on the evening of Friday, 31 January that an explosive device was in a lorry in Belfast docks.

"That report informed police that the lorry was due to travel by ferry to Scotland. Based on this information police conducted checks of the docks area and worked with the ferry company, Belfast Harbour authorities and Police Scotland to try to locate that device. After thorough checks nothing was found. The ferry sailed and arrived safely in Scotland.

“On the evening of Monday, 3 February, police received a further report that the explosive device had been attached to a lorry belonging to a named haulage company. This more detailed information enabled police to conduct focused investigations with the haulage company.

"Working throughout the evening of Monday, 3 February, and Tuesday, 4 February, police and the haulage company eliminated in the region of 400 vehicles in order to locate the explosive device. The device was subsequently found attached to a heavy goods vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate. That explosive device was made safe by ATO colleagues.

“It is clear from the information available to police that Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device to a heavy goods vehicle in the full knowledge and expectation that it would put the driver of that vehicle, road users and the wider public at serious risk of injury and possible death.

"Had this vehicle travelled and the device had exploded at any point along the M1, across the Westlink or into the Harbour estate the risks posed do not bear thinking about. The only conclusion that we can draw is that once again Dissident Republicans have shown a total disregard for the community, for businesses and for wider society.”

Detective Superintendent Wright concluded: “My appeal today is for anyone who was in the area of Silverwood Industrial Estate between 4.00pm and 10.00pm on Friday, 31 January and who may have noticed any unusual activity in the area to contact police. In addition I ask that anyone who was driving in the area and who would have dash-cam footage around these same times that they contact police, as a matter of urgency.

“Police can be contacted on the non-emergency number 101. Alternatively, information can also be provided to the independent charity Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111, which is 100% anonymous and gives people the power to speak up and stop crime.”
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Anyone claimed responsibility yet?
 
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