Is nuclear war inevitable?

[crooky]

We are and that's without any analysis of the geo political landscape and how things are going in that regard.

To me it's as simple as, the longer countries possess nuclear weapons the more likely there is to be an accident that could then trigger a war.

 

[mancityvstoke]

At least we've won loads ...............who cares now?

Can I press the big red button? Start with Russia ...the cunts

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Current Time - 2024 - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is 90 seconds to midnight.

thebulletin.org

Updated later this month (if we're still here), always thought it moved with events not annually.

 

[Ohrodneyrodney]

If we get these 2 in May I'd say its odds on

Well we’ve now got one of them, but the other is Uncle Joe, so I can’t see anything going wrong.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

are we getting closer to it?

A dam site closer now than when this posting was made.

 

[Marklr]

I just destroyed London.

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Current Time - 2024 - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is 90 seconds to midnight.

thebulletin.org

Updated later this month (if we're still here), always thought it moved with events not annually.

The clock is not quite as straightforward these days. Since 2007 its calculation has been developed to include any human-generated existential threat. Because we’ve been so hopeless at combating climate change the clock is unlikely to move backwards now unless something drastic happens. This has sort of diluted the implied imminence of nuclear doomsday reflected in the clock previously. Nuclear war would lead to the collapse of civilisation far faster than climate change - even if we agree they are similarly existential in nature.

I am actually weirdly reassured from the last few years. If Russia were ever likely to use nukes offensively then it feels like they would have done so by now - they’ve been like a cornered animal for a long time. There’s been a hell of a lot of sabre rattling but it seems even they’re not nuts enough. This is admittedly more just hope than expectation.

Other nuclear powers using weapons is a possibility. India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel are all concerns but if they were to use them I don’t think we’d see a MAD scenario unfolding, maybe some tit-for-tat with a shitshow of conventional war.

There are about 15-20% the number of nuclear weapons in the world than there were 30 years ago. And a lot of the ones that exist are tactical or reserve nuclear devices. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still enough to really fuck us but I reckon the superpowers have better tech for knocking out nukes than they let on.

I’m not sure the kind of 1980s MAD scenario is very likely these days… Mostly still because the only winning move is not to play.

 

[manclad]

There hasn't been a nuclear weapon detonated in anger for almost 80 years now, and I think it's very unlikely to happen anytime soon.
The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction still very much applied to all nuclear armed countries.
Imagine if North Korea launched a pre- emptive nuclear strike on a NATO country (for whatever reason), the response from NATO (particularly US Navy/Royal Navy submarines) would be devastating and would basically put N.Korea back into the 19th century.
Let's hope that it never gets anywhere near to that scenario.

 

[metalblue]

I just destroyed London.

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

It’s not all bad then

 

[mexico1970]

There is considerably less nuclear panic than there was in the 50's, saying that I believe that religious fundamentalism will be the cause of the big orange fireball at one point, nothing will stop that.