Josko Gvardiol

[Benzino]

Here is how I stated it on another thread talking about Declan Rice:

"I don't think he is worth 100 million, but then again my bias towards attacking minded players means I don't think any defensive minded player, including Rodri or Peak Busquet is worth 100 million.

But my valuation matrix is different. Clearly City Management has a different valuation than I do. Because they clearly thought Rice was worth something around 90 million or more. That's about 50 million over my valuation.

But like they say, a player is worth what someone is willing to pay. Regardless of what my personal dumb opinion is on how valuation should be viewed.

But here is mine:

Established WC attacking player at top club : 100 million or above is okay.

Established WC attacking potential player at Midtable Club: 40 - 75 Mill is max

Established WC defensive players at Top clubs:
50 - 75 mil

Potential WC defensive players at Midtable or foreign club: 25 - 60 Million.

Good Role players: 10 - 40 mill

By my valuation system, you can see we are already overpaying for Gvardiol.

And that's why I don't take my view on valuation seriously. I have to simply accept that Clubs value players differently. And it isn't my place to judge that value. Just to be happy when my club agrees with my valuation and bow out when necessary."

In short, I probably think he is worth about 75 - 80 million Euros tops

I think your valuations are pretty sensible and logical. Football clubs aren’t sensible though and when they pay silly prices the market moves up.

The prices are dictated by the top market transfers from the previous/ current windows, in the categories of players ability, age, potential ability, current league etc .

Last season

- Utd signed a 30 year old DM for £70m
- Madrid signed a DM from the French league for £75m.
- Chelsea signed a DM who had played only 17 games in the Portuguese league, for £106m.

Therfore, now increasing the top market values, and including the DMs in the top market bracket too.

So West Ham got to a valuation, as they believed Rice is a top DM and therefore, a top market value player. I did a post on this a while ago and I said the top market value, would exceed £100m this transfer window, for any midfielders or attackers.

City don’t like to break the top cap though, because it causes inflation, which means we have to pay more to buy players in the future. But Chelsea and Utd do it consistently. Between them they inflated transfers, on 14 separate occasions each. Then you’ve got Madrid who do it too, and PSG sent the market wild when they paid more than double the top market value, and then 1.7 more in the same window, causing Barca to do the same and hence inflation increased massively. The same window we got in early and bought Bernardo for £50m.

On the subject of DMs, two seasons ago, the promising DM - Camvinga went to Madrid for just £40m, and Bruno went to Newcastle for similar money. The year before that, all the top DM transfers were in a similar region to this too, Thomas Partey etc

In terms of defenders, the piss has already been taken I’m afraid.

- Chelsea signed Wesley Fofana last year for £75m, when he had only made 7 appearances for Leicester in the previous season.
- Utd had already paid £90m for Maguire.
- Liverpool paid 75m for VVD a few years ago now

I don’t see City breaking the £90m mark, because like I say we try to stay below the top values, unless it’s because of a buyout clause or they’re super keen. But I do expect Gvardiol to be considered a top market value CB, so Leipzig may want £90m. As I said, I think we will want to be lower, between the £75-£85m mark if we can. BBC Sport have claimed to have the scoop that it will be £85m.

 

[TonyM]

Laporte just got married now having his honeymoon so we probably won’t see any movement or links till at least another 2 weeks

Movement? I'd say he'll have plenty of movement for the next 2 weeks. Nudge nudge.

 

[Any1aBlue]

Lutsharel Geertruida - Most Played Positions

See all the career stats for each position Lutsharel Geertruida has played in, along with his rating for each position and preferred foot.

www.footballcritic.com

Played as a CB even more, or so it seems.
They are also about to sign another CB, Josip Šutalo.

I reckon Gvardiol is a done deal.

Great stuff - thanks for confirming, as I couldn’t find that

 

[Bernard20]

Here is how I stated it on another thread talking about Declan Rice:

"I don't think he is worth 100 million, but then again my bias towards attacking minded players means I don't think any defensive minded player, including Rodri or Peak Busquet is worth 100 million.

But my valuation matrix is different. Clearly City Management has a different valuation than I do. Because they clearly thought Rice was worth something around 90 million or more. That's about 50 million over my valuation.

But like they say, a player is worth what someone is willing to pay. Regardless of what my personal dumb opinion is on how valuation should be viewed.

But here is mine:

Established WC attacking player at top club : 100 million or above is okay.

Established WC attacking potential player at Midtable Club: 40 - 75 Mill is max

Established WC defensive players at Top clubs:
50 - 75 mil

Potential WC defensive players at Midtable or foreign club: 25 - 60 Million.

Good Role players: 10 - 40 mill

By my valuation system, you can see we are already overpaying for Gvardiol.

And that's why I don't take my view on valuation seriously. I have to simply accept that Clubs value players differently. And it isn't my place to judge that value. Just to be happy when my club agrees with my valuation and bow out when necessary."

In short, I probably think he is worth about 75 - 80 million Euros tops

I respect your views, you clearly do your research and know some stuff…

And with respect, why on earth do you have a ‘your valuation’ guide? Do you own a football club?

You thought £90m for Rice was £50m too much? So he was worth £40m then? Finishing 5-6 places higher in a single PL season, is worth £40m. Money in football is ridiculous and so why would Sullivan accept £40m for Declan Rice, their captain? It’s ludicrous to think his value is that low. The whole idea that you have your own value system is frankly bonkers! Who gives a fuck anyway. Clubs bid what they think a player is worth. But £40m for Rice is 2005 money!

 

[Dax777]

I respect your views, you clearly do your research and know some stuff…

And with respect, why on earth do you have a ‘your valuation’ guide? Do you own a football club?

You thought £90m for Rice was £50m too much? So he was worth £40m then? Finishing 5-6 places higher in a single PL season, is worth £40m. Money in football is ridiculous and so why would Sullivan accept £40m for Declan Rice, their captain? It’s ludicrous to think his value is that low. The whole idea that you have your own value system is frankly bonkers! Who gives a fuck anyway. Clubs bid what they think a player is worth. But £40m for Rice is 2005 money!

No I don't have a club, but when anyone says playerX or Y is not worth the price they were purchased for, they are often going off some internal analysis in their head.

I was just giving a view of how that internal analysis work in my head.

As for Rice, I'd say he is worth around 55 to 60 million pounds. I suppose that's about 30 to 45 million less than City's valuation. My bad for saying 50 million, I'm unfortunately from the Eni Aluko school of math :)

 

[Paul1970]

I think your valuations are pretty sensible and logical. Football clubs aren’t sensible though and when they pay silly prices the market moves up.

The prices are dictated by the top market transfers from the previous/ current windows, in the categories of players ability, age, potential ability, current league etc .

Last season

- Utd signed a 30 year old DM for £70m
- Madrid signed a DM from the French league for £75m.
- Chelsea signed a DM who had played only 17 games in the Portuguese league, for £106m.

Therfore, now increasing the top market values, and including the DMs in the top market bracket too.

So West Ham got to a valuation, as they believed Rice is a top DM and therefore, a top market value player. I did a post on this a while ago and I said the top market value, would exceed £100m this transfer window, for any midfielders or attackers.

City don’t like to break the top cap though, because it causes inflation, which means we have to pay more to buy players in the future. But Chelsea and Utd do it consistently. Between them they inflated transfers, on 14 separate occasions each. Then you’ve got Madrid who do it too, and PSG sent the market wild when they paid more than double the top market value, and then 1.7 more in the same window, causing Barca to do the same and hence inflation increased massively. The same window we got in early and bought Bernardo for £50m.

On the subject of DMs, two seasons ago, the promising DM - Camvinga went to Madrid for just £40m, and Bruno went to Newcastle for similar money. The year before that, all the top DM transfers were in a similar region to this too, Thomas Partey etc

In terms of defenders, the piss has already been taken I’m afraid.

- Chelsea signed Wesley Fofana last year for £75m, when he had only made 7 appearances for Leicester in the previous season.
- Utd had already paid £90m for Maguire.
- Liverpool paid 75m for VVD a few years ago now

I don’t see City breaking the £90m mark, because like I say we try to stay below the top values, unless it’s because of a buyout clause or they’re super keen. But I do expect Gvardiol to be considered a top market value CB, so Leipzig may want £90m. As I said, I think we will want to be lower, between the £75-£85m mark if we can. BBC Sport have claimed to have the scoop that it will be £85m.

Sooner or later we will have to start going higher for transfers if we will get anyone . You can safely say £80 mill is the new £50 mill .

 

[Bernard20]

No I don't have a club, but when anyone says playerX or Y is not worth the price they were purchased for, they are often going off some internal analysis in their head.

I was just giving a view of how that internal analysis work in my head.

As for Rice, I'd say he is worth around 55 to 60 million pounds. I suppose that's about 30 to 45 million less than City's valuation. My bad for saying 50 million, I'm unfortunately from the Eni Aluko school of math :)

Fair enough… you seem like a decent guy and like I said, you clearly research this stuff.

That said, your idea of having your own valuation system, just seems bonkers to me!

Established WC attacking/defensive potential/proven yada yada… a player is worth what a club is willing to pay! If Arsenal pay £110 mil for Rice and he kicks on another level and wins them the league, then it’s money well spent… he could also struggle under the weight of the price tag and fail to adapt to their team etc etc. It’s all relative. A player is worth what someone is willing to pay and we we’re willing to pay £90m for Rice but clearly not £100m+

We move on to the next one and enjoy the ride.

 

[Benzino]

Sooner or later we will have to start going higher for transfers if we will get anyone . You can safely say £80 mill is the new £50 mill .

You’re right, we bought Walkers and Stones for £50m. Both were fairly young, but experienced PL players at the time. You wouldn’t pick up players like that for less than £75m now.

 

[oakiecokie]

Let’s have a look at the old scoreboard
View attachment 84948

Hahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa very good mate, very good.

 

[SWP's back]

All about opinions but I thought he fought thru the pain barrier at the end of the 21/22 season - he was amazing. This year when he’s come in he’s played pretty well and he’s a top player. Probably doesn’t fit Peos latest tactical blueprint but that doesn’t make him a bad player.

He’s not a bad player no, but apparently sulks when not picked.