Gareth Barry Conlon
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 5 Sep 2014
- Messages
- 14,739
It's all a pantomime. Why on earth does anyone think Corbyn and McDonnell are not stepping down immediately, as would happen in every other normal situation after a second successive GE defeat, let lone one where you went dramatically backwards.
OF COURSE, it's so they can make sure Corbyn's successor can continue to carry to Corbyn flag. Corbyn doesn't want some wet coming along and unpicking all his good work. And as long as he's around the National Executive will select the right candidates and momentum will ensure the right one is chosen and duly anointed. This is of course Rebecca Long-Bailey.
They'd probably just announce her appointment this afternoon if it were not to cause uproar. So they have to go through this nonsense about "a proper period of reflection" bla bla bla and "a fully democratic process" before appointing her to the role. It's a done deal.
There will be a vote and the system is a decent one where candidates are dropped until one gets 50%. Most people won't look past whoever momentum back. However Momentum are around 10-15% of labour membership (as I understand it), and who knows what they now think after last week. So not as slam dunk as you think.
Also worth noting that Corbyn got 60% in 2x contests so it only needs a 10%ish swing to a moderate candidate.