ok, prestwich, you've given me plenty to think about. this is my last stab at a balanced analysis of the decision.
I am uneasy about the way this has been done, not on sentimental grounds, or because I rated Hughes, but because I think Mancini amounts to a value bet, rather than the ideal candidate. If he adapts, he does have the track record and attributes to suggest he can build a dynasty here. To be honest I think it's far more likely to succeed at this than Hughes, who didn't organise his defence correctly once, and had far too many problems with players. mancini on the other hand has the character and reputation to manage any player. He has a real track record in this area, having managed to get the best out of many players now considered world class, some of them extremely difficult characters. He has also moulded these egos into coherent, stable teams. He's a better bet on the face of it... but the best bet might well have been to hang on until the summer and see who else could be tempted...
the big concern is the value we are getting by changing now is based on the opportunity to beat liverpool/villa to 4th THIS season. I believe it wasn't likely to happen under hughes, but is a new manager, new to the country, really going to be any more likely to get instant results? is he a mourinho, or a scholari?
why stake so much on this season? is it really a once in a decade opportunity to capitalise on liverpool's weakness? that to me is an unanswerable question, but it appears to have been a key factor in making this decision. I hope someone really understands the odds, because I sure as hell don't.
if he fails we are probably back at square one in the summer, and will have to sacrifice any notion of stability to make another change. at that point, unless we got a AAA candidate, Mourinho or Capello, the whole process will probably have been far more trouble than it was ever worth.
So it's extremely difficult for me to be confident there is real value in making this swap NOW. I guess at least we will have tried. Chelsea got it wrong several times post mourinho, but it didn't really hurt them that much, getting the right guy at the end is all that matters, I guess. I guess.
the unpleasant possibility is that this was essentially a botched operation, that we've backed ourselves into a corner and HAD to act. let's hope that's way off beam.
regardless, we will have broken what was beginning to look like an example of the law of diminishing returns. hughes was struggling to do anything more than buy good premiership players who happened to be available, rather than buying the ideal players for our team. we had a top four squad on paper, but perhaps not a top four first eleven. I also believe that hughes' transfer targets were not likely to pay dividends beyond the next couple of seasons, and it's debatable whether adding a matthew upson would really have made a real difference to this season. Mancini is a better bet to add something really valuable to the squad this winter, or to find emerging talents who will be increasingly valuable as in 5,6,7 years time. if he can, then even if he doesn't make the grade, perhaps we will still have got enough out of his reign to make it worthwhile.
I'll give ADUG a pass on this for now. Hopefully it looks fantastic in a couple of months time. If not, we might have started a whole new cycle of stupidity, and then, if we're not succesful, the youth system has dried up, we can't even say we are being patient and wise, then I will be gutted, and cursing their impatience.
Let's hope Mancini becomes our Mourinho, or Wenger, and if he does, that we keep him for decades.... because there is no probably no going back to the extremely admirable, if slightly less ambitious Martin O'neill/Villa/Lerner approach now.
This is a watershed moment, I can understand why people are uneasy. It could tick all the boxes, or it could undermine our reputation. Let's go into it in good faith