They did have an interesting thread about expected points, where someone classified games by the expected result and how much better or worse than those expected results the top six clubs were doing. So if they had us down for a draw at Arsenal, and we won, we'd be 2 points up.
So out of 38 games, they might say Liverpool would win 28, draw 7 and lose 3 for example. Any deviation from that would impact the expected points. There's 114 points available and I guess they were looking at Liverpool getting 94 on expected results. But those expected results would have seen wins at Fulham and v Palace. That means they're 4 off so far.
I understand that but I'm struggling with the rest. I can only assume they think that the more we win in the short term, the more we'll drop points over the longer term, as they're expecting us to drop, say, 20 over the season.