Media thread 2022/23

[eastmanc]

Because the chances they had were more likely to be scored by an average player

For instance, the Stones goal would have been very low xG and when Kelechi hit the post that would have been quite high xG

What xG doesn't reflect is that City took their foot off the gas after 3 nil deliberately. All stats are flawed in some way, just need to be used as part of a wider context

I understand it but it is the stupidest stat. The only stat that really matters is how many times the ball goes in the opposition net.

 

[SilvaisSkyBlue]

Nah, the Graun is firmly on the Nazi side, Frau Apartheid Von der Leyen is their idol, so are the clown Zelenski and the psycho Biden.

 

[eastmanc]

xG is bollocks
A penalty, which must be one of largest opportunities to score, isn't counted as a full point
It's calculated by % of all the penalties ever recorded that have been scored
So if that is 4 in 5 (80%) then xG recorded Haalands pen yesterday as 0.8 of a chance
And to think , some people have studied every shot /goal to record these stats for xG

If you put Erling Haaland on a 1v1 with the keeper and Raheem Sterling in the same situation, who would you put your money on scoring!
Surely whoever the chance falls to makes a huge difference in expectation of if a goal is scored or not

Confused, you will be. What a load of nonsense, as I said in my original post.

 

[Benjani56]

I understand it but it is the stupidest stat. The only stat that really matters is how many times the ball goes in the opposition net.

Why do you think Premier league teams invest so much in data analysis then?

 

[Benjani56]

Or that the goalkeepers faced on those occasions with sterling out performed their expected saves (xS?). It assumes all things are equal and that scoring in minute 1 is the same as minute 90 in a game where the result matters or a meaningless game on a rainy day or a sunny day at 2-0 or 0-7. That's why it's complete codswallop.

You could say that about any stat. Your issue is with stats as a concept not xG specifically

 

[bluealf]

And that's why it appeals to this generation.

It is all over football manager now as well, making it more real for them lol

 

[madloaf]

You could say that about any stat. Your issue is with stats as a concept not xG specifically

I assume you meant to post that as a question. The answer is that football is too complex with too many moving parts and i specifically dislike xg as, for me at least, it provides no insight as it removes all context. I have no problem with statistics in general.

 

[Benjani56]

xG IMO represents expected goals
I'd expect Haaland to score a penalty, especially when his record for us is 100%
Haaland isn't outperforming his xG at all as he is the deadliest striker on the planet
And we certainly do not need xG to tell us Sterling should be scoring more goals. Even my shitty eyesight can see that miles away

You can't have an IMO about what it represents. It's the same model applied across all match situationsa. Haaland is outperforming his xG, that is factual

What you are describing is that he's meeting your personal expectations. xG helps us prove he's the deadliest striker on the planet!

I agree we don't need xG for that specific situation but that doesn't mean it's a useless stat

 

[bluealf]

You could say that about any stat. Your issue is with stats as a concept not xG specifically

I wonder what the stat is for a guy with 168 posts over 12 or so years, to all of a sudden be posting like mad in an irrelevant thread about xG or Xg or what ever.

I'd say the xP was quite low 0.004 but the guy has overperformed and is currently at 3.01 Xp.

He must like to get worked up by stats or something?

 

[Benjani56]

I assume you meant to post that as a question. The answer is that football is too complex with too many moving parts and i specifically dislike xg as, for me at least, it provides no insight as it removes all context. I have no problem with statistics in general.

All statistics remove context in some way

For example, if you forget xG look at the shots on target from yesterday:
City 4 Leicester 4