Media thread 2022/23

[The Future’s Blue!]

xG is just a new way of saying ‘How did he miss that’ from the sideline and should be talked about ina thread far, far away from this one.

Boring shite.

 

[dickie davies]

You can't have an IMO about what it represents. It's the same model applied across all match situationsa. Haaland is outperforming his xG, that is factual

What you are describing is that he's meeting your personal expectations. xG helps us prove he's the deadliest striker on the planet!

I agree we don't need xG for that specific situation but that doesn't mean it's a useless stat

Haaland isn’t outperforming his xG at all
He’s outperforming everyone else’s and that is why it is bollocks

 

[Benjani56]

I wonder what the stat is for a guy with 168 posts over 12 or so years, to all of a sudden be posting like mad in an irrelevant thread about xG or Xg or what ever.

I'd say the xP was quite low 0.004 but the guy has overperformed and is currently at 3.01 Xp.

He must like to get worked up by stats or something?

You got me

 

[Benjani56]

Haaland isn’t outperforming his xG at all
He’s outperforming everyone else’s

We're debating whether the sky is blue or not at this point haha

 

[JASR]

Why do you think Premier league teams invest so much in data analysis then?

I got this

https://www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-watch-football/tifo-the-athletic/9780241609378

As a simple birthday pressie a few days ago, it’s an interesting short read, but it did highlight a few stats that have led to changes in how the game is played.

Eg
No one puts 1 or 2 men on the posts at corners anymore, due to stats showing its %age usefulness was negligible and Infact gave the opposition more chance of scoring.

Also that directly kicked corners into the box are also pretty %age useless, compared to short corners/hit to outside box.

A good pressie to give to a football fan.

Note: ‘sportswashing’ gets a mention, and we are linked via the use of ‘state-owned clubs’ and UAE, but not directly via use of ‘Manchester city’ - which was the only lying downer of the book

 

[madloaf]

All statistics remove context in some way

For example, if you forget xG look at the shots on target from yesterday:
City 4 Leicester 4

They do. But xg seems more important. I understand the analytics revolution in baseball, American football, but again, whilst context is important more things are equal at the beginning of every sequence and so it makes more sense to use analytics as a tool. No football pitch is ever the same at any second, and trying to make sense of that is futile. No sport requires the eye test more.

 

[Benjani56]

I got this

https://www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-watch-football/tifo-the-athletic/9780241609378

As a simple birthday pressie a few days ago, it’s an interesting short read, but it did highlight a few stats that have led to changes in how the game is played.

Eg
No one puts 1 or 2 men on the posts at corners anymore, due to stats showing its %age usefulness was negligible and Infact gave the opposition more chance of scoring.

Also that directly kicked corners into the box are also pretty %age useless, compared to short corners/hit to outside box.

A good pressie to give to a football fan.

Note: ‘sportswashing’ gets a mention, and we are linked via the use of ‘state-owned clubs’ and UAE, but not directly via use of ‘Manchester city’ - which was the only lying downer of the book

Also Moneyball is a great film portraying the role stats can play in sport

 

[Benjani56]

They do. But xg seems more important. I understand the analytics revolution in baseball, American football, but again, whilst context is important more things are equal at the beginning of every sequence and so it makes more sense to use analytics as a tool. No football pitch is ever the same at any second, and trying to make sense of that is futile. No sport requires the eye test more.

I agree the eye test is always going to be important, look at how many scouts City send out to watch specific players. But they will also be trawling through a lot of stats to help decide who to buy etc

I think xG gets more coverage now because it is a new thing and imo its better to use than shots on target/total shots

 

[JASR]

Also Moneyball is a great film portraying the role stats can play in sport

Indeed.

Considering baseball was the most stat heavy game ever, the concept of ‘Moneyball’ driving the choices of what new stats to use over existing (and wrongly inferred use of) stats is a salutary lesson … in sport and anything… interpretation of stats is everything.

Hence why, with a tweak to the football rules, Liverpool can be shown to have won many PL titles based on a randomly picked stat!

 

[madloaf]

Also Moneyball is a great film portraying the role stats can play in sport

It is, but they never won anything and baseball is not football. All players line up in the same position (within reason) and the same action is repeated 1000s of times. It's much easier to form statistical models.