The question of who started this is almost irrelevant. The real question is who will finish it and how. It sounds very cynical but a short sharp conflict suits nearly all the political players. There was a analysis somewhere about how the key players on the two sides almost need this situation. It went something like this:
From the Israeli point of view, Netanyahu is a weak leader who wants to appear to be strong. He vacillates between the softer side of the right wing and the extreme right wing depending on circumstances and who's shouting loudest. At the moment, there's little doubt that the vast majority of Israelis, on all parts of the political spectrum, support the action he's taking. They are fed up of the rockets, 1000 of which have been fired this last week alone. If he does nothing he looks weak. If he does something, the rockets get worse but he looks strong. There will be a point where public opinion starts to desert him if it drags on aimlessly but he's safe for the moment. The fact is no Israeli leader could survive in the fractured nature of Israeli politics with its fragile coalitions if they appear to be weak on security.
On the Palestinian side, this also suits Hamas as they are weak as well. They've lost public support and the support of the Egyptian government since Morsi was toppled. They were elected but that was as much to do with disgust at the corruption, venality and ineffectualness of the PA. They're seen as less corrupt but no more effectual and have actually made life more difficult for the ordinary Palestinian in Gaza. They are unlikely to get elected again or, if they are, with the same level of support. So it suits them to be seen in the Arab world as the victim as they feel that this will force Arab governments to support them.
Where exactly do I stand?
- I support the right of Israel to live in peace and security but I also support the right of the Palestinians to achieve the same.
- I do not support the policy of expansion via the settlements.
- I do not support the use of overwhelming force by Israel against people who may not be the direct cause of the problem but I also do not support Hamas hiding behind those same people and letting them pay the penalty for their aggression.
- I don't like the term "disproportionate response" as this implies there is an acceptable level of killing, whereas no killing can usually be justified.
- I believe both sides tell lies, use propaganda and are potentially guilty of war crimes.
In the foreseeable future, the only viable solution is a two-state one. That will only be achieved when both sides agree that they have more to lose from fighting each other than they have from co-existing. I would propose a step-by-step approach starting with a ceasefire monitored by independent observers. As part of that (though maybe not from Day 1) I would propose that both sides gove something concrete, with Hamas recognising Israel and Israel loosening the economic blockade on Gaza and even working with them to rebuild the place. If the two Koreas can manage an economic co-operation zone then anyone can. As part of that both sides would give a commitment to work towards a peaceful solution.
After 6 or 12 months of this, I would propose full recognition and a timetable to be agreed whereby all restrictive border controls would be lifted and the two sides would talk directly to each other. Gaza is less of an issue longer term as they have complete territorial integrity, without any settlements or Israeli control. The West Bank would require a different approach, first agreeing borders (which would involve a land swap) then a phased relinquishment of Israeli control over Palestinian areas.
I've always said that the key to this is not only giving the Palestinians self-determination but co-operating economically to make them wealthier. The better off people are, the more they don't want to disturb the status quo.
Eventually at some point (thought it may be years and years off) there could be a secular state in which neither group dominates the other and which guarantees religious freedom for all groups, which was always the original intention.