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And people say the coalition with the DUP won't last six months. You think a five party coalition would be plain sailing?
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Post Match Thread: Election 2017
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blueinsa
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Depends what you mean by immediate. Tomorrow, yes.
But later on, depends who their leader is.
It's pretty obvious everyone hates Theresa May, and she still won. What if they put someone with a bit of charisma in there, run a competent campaign and moderate the manifesto to address the concerns of the less well off?
They'd get more seats not less.
Sorry but i'm not having any of that.
She is running a minority government whose numbers will only get less as time goes on with by elections notoriously poor for the standing government as the electorate given them a bloody nose.
She is dead in the water and a look at the cabinet right now shows that there is no charisma or anyone of note to step up to the plate either.
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blueinsa
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And people say the coalition with the DUP won't last six months. You think a five party coalition would be plain sailing?
No it wouldn't and its why we will be back at the ballot box within 12 months.
SWP's back
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She is running a minority government whose numbers will only get less as time goes on with by elections notoriously poor for the standing government as the electorate given them a bloody nose.
Who faired better in recent by-elections?
May's goose is cooked and the Tories would have won at a canter if Cameron or anyone with an ounce of humanity and charisma had been in charged. She ran the worst campaign in loving memory and is still in number 10.
SWP's back
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I hope so.No it wouldn't and its why we will be back at the ballot box within 12 months.
Depends what you mean by immediate. Tomorrow, yes.
But later on, depends who their leader is.
It's pretty obvious everyone hates Theresa May, and she still won. What if they put someone with a bit of charisma in there, run a competent campaign and moderate the manifesto to address the concerns of the less well off?
They'd get more seats not less.
I meant immediate as in the scenario where both the tories and labour have their Queen's speech voted down.
I think the tories are at least 6 months away from being in shape to fight another election. They would need to replace May, not be humiliated by the opening salvos of the Brexit negotiations, and then for the new PM to make a impact in parliament and have a successful party conference relaunch. And, of course, they would need to rewrite their manifesto.
With respect, what's happened to the lib dems is as irrelevant as the lib dems themselves.
So if you're right, and if I was a Tory, with JC looming and all his 'momentum', why would I call an election in the next couple of years? That's the ultimate turkey voting for christmas analogy. Might as well stick it out for the full 5 years. Again, and it's a point a lot seem to be missing, the Tories have the power and they get to call when the next election is.
Do they? May only got the election with Labour support, relying on Corbyn not being able to refuse the chance to fight an election even while apparently floundering in the polls. If Labour - or anyone - brings a Commons motion to say let's have an early election, are the Tories going to resist? On what grounds? "We were opportunist then but we're now going to prefer our little coalition of chaos." And I don't just mean mayDUP - I mean the Tories' internal chaos on Brexit (between hard, soft and what a stupid idea in the first place).
If they could demand an election so as to give them a strong and stable stance at the Brexit table and have failed, how could they run away from another chance to give Britain a strong and stable stance at the Brexit table?
Bottom line - there are enough Tory MPs with the honour to know when the game is up who would (in particular circumstances) not follow the whip.
I'll pick up on the Kensington result in the 10-point list.I do like a ten point summary :-)
9- Labour just took Kensington. KENSINGTON. KENSINGTON. The richest constituency in the land and now The Mail and the Duke of Cambridge have a Labour MP.
Your response: "Demographic shift in urban london. Not as remarkable as is being portrayed."
I think I'd need to see some super output area data to believe that with the Tory policy of housing homeless families out of London and house prices forcing other low-paid families into the suburbs, Kensington or any other central London constituency is getting more residents likely to vote Labour (unless they're all champagne socialists). Yougov described it as a "very safe Conservative seat". This is more why it appears (unless you can demonstrate otherwise) that the demographics favoured the Tories and it's one of those remarkable results that really does worry you.
Gabriel
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Depends what you mean by immediate. Tomorrow, yes.
But later on, depends who their leader is.
It's pretty obvious everyone hates Theresa May, and she still won. What if they put someone with a bit of charisma in there, run a competent campaign and moderate the manifesto to address the concerns of the less well off?
They'd get more seats not less.
That's the bit I wonder about. I think the Conservatives now have to be genuinely wary of testing the resolve of an electorate who are evidently enjoying debunking conventional thought.
"Because something is happening here but you don't know what it is
Do you, Mr. Jones?"
"Labour have just had a great election!"
"Great news Mum, so we don't need to go to the food bank next week? We van go shopping instead?"
"No, but lots of people much more privileged than us feel temporarily better about themselves and their political party"
"But I want some fish fingers Mum"
"Maybe in 5 years son, if a load of things fall into place. Now eat your canned peach."
Nice victory lads. Only a few million people have to suffer so you can have your moment.
BlueAnorak
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Yeah, but if we go there and get ill the NHS pays but the other way round foreign nationals get it for free!All of Europe already has free healthcare, for the record
As of 2016 we pay Europe £670m and they pay us £50m. That's an astonishing £620m of cash. Even assuming the payment would be asymmetric because we travel more for our holidays in the sun it will be at least £400m pissed away by the NHS every year. Not to difficult to fix either.
The people who work in IT writing software for robots and in designing stuff (including designing robots) and in maintaining robots will disagree
Yes. People who have computer programming degrees and have an experience with neural network based AI for example. Like me. And I'm pretty sure you're all fucked.
Yeah, but if we go there and get ill the NHS pays but the other way round foreign nationals get it for free!
As of 2016 we pay Europe £670m and they pay us £50m. That's an astonishing £620m of cash. Even assuming the payment would be asymmetric because we travel more for our holidays in the sun it will be at least £400m pissed away by the NHS every year. Not to difficult to fix either.
I didn't know those figures, though now you mention it I could totally believe it.
You're right, that's outrageous.
BlueAnorak
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PHI was a fucking debt disaster. New shiney hospitals that we have to pay for at fecking humongous interest rates before the debt is gone.No - but the waste through phi was scandalous. I worked on many hospitals and the waste I witnessed was frighteningly There was huge waste in the public sector and thousands of unnesaacry positions created.
The tories have not cut savagely as people would have you believe - they have managed a bloated public sector. They have actually increased spending year on year across most sectors but at as lower pace than previous. They are brining the public sector back to where it was prior to the grodon brown years as a percentage of GDV. know no one will agree with me but they have done a fabulous job since 2010.
Not looking to be controversial and I know you won't agree and most in here with me but that is my honest opinion. They get criticised for not reducing the defecit fast enough and get cristised for marking cuts. Seems like cake and eat it to me. Of dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-hospitals-debts-what-is-it-rbs-a7134881.html
It's chewing up a huge chunk of the NHS budget forever if there was anything that needs nationalising it's these PHI companies with deferred payments to the current owners at reasonable long term interest rates with the rest of the money sunk into new NHS infrastructure projects.
Chippy_boy
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That's the bit I wonder about. I think the Conservatives now have to be genuinely wary of testing the resolve of an electorate who are evidently enjoying debunking conventional thought.
The electorate are also sick to death of elections and electioneering. I'm interested and engaged with politics as clearly most on here are, but even I was sick to the back teeth of turning the TV on, only to find them droning on about the election AGAIN.
Calling another one quickly would be suicide.
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
You would still need designers, sales, installers, project managers, service, maintenance and emergency breakdown staff to facilitate the use of any robot/machine. Teams of staff just to keep the robots going. Then the companies who employ that work force will still need, admin, receptionists, payroll clerks, middle and top level management, accountants, cleaners. The office they work at will still have to function so you will need stationary suppliers, drivers to deliver those supplies, furniture makers, computers/IT staff, builders to build the buildings they work in, utilities, transportation to get them to work, someone to feed those staff........ I could literally go on forever. AI/automation will, and is, replacing some jobs undoubtedly but I can't see it being anything like the description you posted. Now whether or not we will have the skills available is another question but again I disagree everyone will need a computer programming degree.Yes. People who have computer programming degrees and have an experience with neural network based AI for example. Like me. And I'm pretty sure you're all fucked.
PannickAtTheDisco
Well-Known Member
"Labour have just had a great election!"
"Great news Mum, so we don't need to go to the food bank next week? We van go shopping instead?"
"No, but lots of people much more privileged than us feel temporarily better about themselves and their political party"
"But I want some fish fingers Mum"
"Maybe in 5 years son, if a load of things fall into place. Now eat your canned peach."
Nice victory lads. Only a few million people have to suffer so you can have your moment.
It's all too assumptive imo. Also, any kid who wants fish fingers should be fed canned peach for the rest of their lives. Also, no legitimate reason expressed for why they'd need to use a foodbank, just seems to be used as a lazy tool to giving them even more of other people's hard-earned money without any real scrutiny on why they need it.
BlueAnorak
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My daughter, a registrar in the NHS, has a stack of gems like these about the NHS. The waste is extraordinary.
Chippy_boy
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I meant immediate as in the scenario where both the tories and labour have their Queen's speech voted down.
I think the tories are at least 6 months away from being in shape to fight another election. They would need to replace May, not be humiliated by the opening salvos of the Brexit negotiations, and then for the new PM to make a impact in parliament and have a successful party conference relaunch. And, of course, they would need to rewrite their manifesto.
The enormous fly in the ointment is of course Brexit.
I find it impossible to imagine that this is all going to go "swimmingly". In part because the EU cannot be seen to offer a solution that might be appealing to other members states wrestling with their own thoughts about possibly leaving. And in part because what people in the UK want is so diverse. A solution that pleases one group will piss another group right off. There's no "win" that will be seen by everyone as a being win.
And of course there's the economic impact of all of this. If the Brexit talks go very badly, and the economy tanks, Labour could put up a stuffed Michael Foot manikin and still win. So on balance I think the Tories should hang on as long as they possibly can.
Of course if I am wrong, and Brexit is a breeze and we all go skipping off happily with nice above-inflation pay rises and other goodies, the opposite is true. Can't see it, can you?
City Raider
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I still don't fully understand the optimism from the Labour party. The Conservatives had an absolutely abysmal campaign and they still beat them in terms of votes and seats.
I feel with a competent leader the Tories will just go back to having the sole majority
Could anybody open my eyes to what I'm missing?
The election proved there is still an appetite for policies with social value. Something many thought Blair killed.
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