Premier League Champions Calculation

[BlueAnorak]

Either Arsenal or Chelsea are highly lightly to put together a good run to exceed 80 pts - probably 83 or 84. That means we will need 85 points. That means we can drop 13 points which equates to:
Loose 4 and draw 0 or 1 ;
Loose 3 and draw 0, 1 or 2;
Loose 2 and draw 0, 1, 2 or 3;
Loose 2 and draw 4 - with a massive GD to win the league on GD;

There really isn't much room for manoeuvre.

 

[mcfcirlam]

Happy New Year to everyone, especially those who made the trip to Swansea yesterday, great support.

With Chelsea and Arsenal still getting good results I think that the winning points target will go above 80, but for calculation purposes lets stick at 80.

How many points will we win at home 57

How many points have we got away 14

We now need 9 points from 9 away games.

How good would it be to beat Norwich, Hull and Crystal Palace and knowing we could lose at Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle and Swamp and still win the league.
A better situation would be to win the league cup, beating them at Wembley, then the Derby switched to April and putting a nail in their Champions League coffin at the same time as winning the league.

 

[aguero93:20]

Happy New Year to everyone, especially those who made the trip to Swansea yesterday, great support.

With Chelsea and Arsenal still getting good results I think that the winning points target will go above 80, but for calculation purposes lets stick at 80.

How many points will we win at home 57

How many points have we got away 14

We now need 9 points from 9 away games.

How good would it be to beat Norwich, Hull and Crystal Palace and knowing we could lose at Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle and Swamp and still win the league.
A better situation would be to win the league cup, beating them at Wembley, then the Derby switched to April and putting a nail in their Champions League coffin at the same time as winning the league.

I'm going for 86(chelski are grinding out too many results), but look at two more away games there, utd are looking poor and we've a solid recent record in the swamp. Newcastle is and has been for a while our happiest hunting ground and they seem to be hitting one of their 'patches' so I fully expect 3 points there, we should aim to draw/win at least 2 of the remaining games away from home, a lot of things can obviously go wrong but that would put us on 88-92 points which I feel we're capable of and would win the league nearly any season.

 

[Mr Ed (The Stables)]

It will take 90+ points this season. One good thing is the goals scored is far better than our rivals and may well be the difference on that final day.

 

[Robinho's Subbuteo]

http://www.euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp

Right now 80 wins it. Exactly 80.

That may as well be a link to a picture of a cat.

Popcorn Cat?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Happy New Year to everyone, especially those who made the trip to Swansea yesterday, great support.

With Chelsea and Arsenal still getting good results I think that the winning points target will go above 80, but for calculation purposes lets stick at 80.

How many points will we win at home 57

How many points have we got away 14

We now need 9 points from 9 away games.

How good would it be to beat Norwich, Hull and Crystal Palace and knowing we could lose at Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle and Swamp and still win the league.
A better situation would be to win the league cup, beating them at Wembley, then the Derby switched to April and putting a nail in their Champions League coffin at the same time as winning the league.

If the total is going to be anything like 80 points then we need to be neutralising our closest rivals a little more than that.

fwiw I think 84 will do it:

win our remaining home games, except Chelsea, which we draw: 25 points

of our remaining away games - win four, draw three and lose two: 16 points

85 points.

 

[The Pink Panther]

It will take 90+ points this season. One good thing is the goals scored is far better than our rivals and may well be the difference on that final day.

It won't be that many unless one of us Arse or Chelsea beat the other two in the return matches, although it wouldn't surprise ma to see the top three all with 86+ points each
The title will be decided via the three team mini league, but with Liverpool having to play the top three at home, although they won't win the Prem, they may be the curve ball

 

[BringBackSwales]

if we want to finish above Chelsea we will need more than 80 points

 

[aguero93:20]

It will take 90+ points this season. One good thing is the goals scored is far better than our rivals and may well be the difference on that final day.

It won't be that many unless one of us Arse or Chelsea beat the other two in the return matches, although it wouldn't surprise ma to see the top three all with 86+ points each
The title will be decided via the three team mini league, but with Liverpool having to play the top three at home, although they won't win the Prem, they may be the curve ball

This won't happen, arsenal will drop off imo, but we've never had 3 teams finish on 86+ and only a few times (3 I think) had two teams reach that in 1 season and this season is an open one.

 

[CatMan]

Happy New Year to everyone, especially those who made the trip to Swansea yesterday, great support.

With Chelsea and Arsenal still getting good results I think that the winning points target will go above 80, but for calculation purposes lets stick at 80.

How many points will we win at home 57

How many points have we got away 14

We now need 9 points from 9 away games.

How good would it be to beat Norwich, Hull and Crystal Palace and knowing we could lose at Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle and Swamp and still win the league.
A better situation would be to win the league cup, beating them at Wembley, then the Derby switched to April and putting a nail in their Champions League coffin at the same time as winning the league.

I'm going for 86(chelski are grinding out too many results), but look at two more away games there, utd are looking poor and we've a solid recent record in the swamp. Newcastle is and has been for a while our happiest hunting ground and they seem to be hitting one of their 'patches' so I fully expect 3 points there, we should aim to draw/win at least 2 of the remaining games away from home, a lot of things can obviously go wrong but that would put us on 88-92 points which I feel we're capable of and would win the league nearly any season.

I'm with you. I think I would gladly take 86 points now.

I am also happy we have all the tough teams to play away as that means that less Chelsea, we have a nice set of fixtures at home that could see us win all 19.

As it is always possible to lose away from home in this league, I would much rather be playing the tough teams away from home now rather than risk dropping home points to them and then dropping more points away to 'puncher's chance' type teams like we have to Cardiff, Villa and Sunderland.

So based on that analysis and reducing our home total points gained to 55 (Chelsea possible draw) and already having 14 away points we need to pick up 17 away points from 9 away games to be be certain of lifting the title.

Remaining Away Games

Newcastle
Spurs
Norwich
United (Could be last away game of season due to Cup)
Hull
Arsenal (Must not Lose!)
Liverpool
Palace (Will already be relegated hopefully)
Everton (Could be a dead rubber)

If we can avoid defeat at Arsenal, thus preventing them getting 3 points and beat Chelsea at home, we may only need 12-14 points and clinch the title with 82-84 points.

Whatever happens, it's exciting stuff.