Previous UK government ‘covered up’ financial turmoil ahead of election

[inbetween]

The black hole broken down

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It’s likely asylum was more than forecast which is where Reeves is pitching her tent (and saying some things were underestimated either deliberately or not - TBC) and the biggest single contributor is public sector wage rises which is where Hunt is pitching his. Both are likely correct looking at this (which is the trouble with modern politics), there was always going to be a black hole, that was no secret and both main parties are responsible for it size.

Anyroad growth is what we need so hopefully she won’t try and cut and tax to close it but rather borrow, with the right cuts and taxes to promote growth.

I like the 'Efficiencies' and 'Reserves' bits on the graphs. Totally meaningless and obviously bollocks.

God I hate politicians :)

 

[Bluemanc100]

Hmmm Where have we seen this happen before....

They're all as bad as each other.... What a shit show our political system is

 

[BrianW]

If you want something radically different, you should have voted for Corbyn.

The neo-liberal system is cemented in place, and all we can hope for is that the government of the day minimises the pain instead of exaggerating it.

 

[SilverFox2]

I wonder how competent any recent Government is at handling budgets.
By that I mean they get all their money by taxation of other financial companies that make a profit out of their budgets or properties and households who have generated their own cash to spend.
They, like local government see budgets as solely money to spend then apparently fail miserably when keeping to a their own figures.

I am wondering how a government appointed football adjudicatior could possibly judge how the profit part part of profit and loss can be fairly assessed.

As it stands they are no better than Man U by overspending a budget thus increasing debt.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The black hole broken down

View attachment 127082

It’s likely asylum was more than forecast which is where Reeves is pitching her tent (and saying some things were underestimated either deliberately or not - TBC) and the biggest single contributor is public sector wage rises which is where Hunt is pitching his. Both are likely correct looking at this (which is the trouble with modern politics), there was always going to be a black hole, that was no secret and both main parties are responsible for it size.

Anyroad growth is what we need so hopefully she won’t try and cut and tax to close it but rather borrow, with the right cuts and taxes to promote growth.

So the black hole is mostly Labour policy choices.
[1] Public Sector pay rises.
[2] A change in policy (Rwanda).

 

[metalblue]

So the black hole is mostly Labour policy choices.
[1] Public Sector pay rises.
[2] A change in policy (Rwanda).

2 is a credit so reduces it. As does removing the WFA.

Health, Asylum (this is the part she says wasn’t fully understood), Rail and Ukraine are all down to policies they have inherited. If she’d done everything else and not increased public sector pay she’d have a £6-8bn black hole.

That’s not to say increasing public sector pay above the 2% budgeted for was wrong. I’m optimistic it might serve to boost private sector pay. Which in turn creates growth. I’m less taken with the 22% rise for junior doctors, not because they don’t necessarily deserve it but because it creates a baseline for other demands - and they are coming and it’s going to be very hard for the country to afford it without significant tax rises or cuts elsewhere.

 

[BrianW]

I wonder what the average public sector pay rise over the last 14 years works out at?

You see, you can persuade people to be squeezed for a year or two 'in the national interest'. Most are naive enough or tolerant enough to accept that. But do it for 14 years and there will be consequences.

BTW, how much do strikes cost? How much does a recruitment crisis cost, where you have to scour the world for immigrants to come in and work as cheap labour? Bury Council has been fetching in social workers from all manner of unlikely countries as they can't pay enough to attract the natives.

The laws of supply and demand work in the public sector too.

 

[hcblue95]

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They are coming after your savings (which you have already paid tax on) and pension funds. Not the copper bottomed gold plated public service pension funds. Oh no, that would never do. Just the hard working people who have contributed to their pension fund for the best part of 50 years. That’s fair game. Labour: the politics of envy, spite and hatred.

Your precious Tories introduced the highest tax burden since 1948. Tories: the politics of selfishness, corruption and incompetence.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I wonder what the average public sector pay rise over the last 14 years works out at?

You see, you can persuade people to be squeezed for a year or two 'in the national interest'. Most are naive enough or tolerant enough to accept that. But do it for 14 years and there will be consequences.

BTW, how much do strikes cost? How much does a recruitment crisis cost, where you have to scour the world for immigrants to come in and work as cheap labour? Bury Council has been fetching in social workers from all manner of unlikely countries as they can't pay enough to attract the natives.

The laws of supply and demand work in the public sector too.

I can only speak for the fire service so since 2010 to 2021we had 13.5% that’s a real term cut of £4000 based on CPI. since I left in 2022 they had 7%, 5% and now 5%, (bloody typical lol) so they are probably were they should’ve be now, however obviously they’ve lost out (like millions of others over the years ). Now I’m not saying public deserves more than private but that’s why retention has been so bad as people leave to train drive etc.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They are coming after your savings (which you have already paid tax on) and pension funds. Not the copper bottomed gold plated public service pension funds. Oh no, that would never do. Just the hard working people who have contributed to their pension fund for the best part of 50 years. That’s fair game. Labour: the politics of envy, spite and hatred.

And public sector doesn’t pay towards their pensions? The Labour Party got rid of final salary pension scheme in 2006, they changed the working pension age to 60 for frontline services, paying more working longer for less, which the tories then tried to change again illegally (I’m still waiting on tens of thousands that they owe me). Labour have given pay rise in-line with public sector recommendations something the tories always said that’s what you should get when people demanded more, so should Labour got against the pay review body? What does that say? You’d just end up with more strikes, cost more and waiting list go up. When you can’t get a doctor because you don’t pay them right go get private insurance it will cost you more than it would in tax to fund those pay rises. Maybe the fire service should charge you for coming out to a smell of smoke, they do in Ireland! Tory :the politics of selfishness, greed and apathetic