And since that won’t happen I go with the most probable explanation.
you give him the benefit of the doubt if you want.
It ultimately all boils down to the third error in the ones you referenced earlier. If he doesn’t do that, then you’d be praising him, not thinking the other two were errors at all.
So focussing on that error, he blows his whistle when the ball is crossing the half way line, he initiates blowing his whistle even before that. At that point, if you really think every error is benefitting Spurs, then it’s because even then, he knows that Grealish is going to be through on goal and end up with a good goal scoring chance.
At that point, the likelihood to me is far more the other way. He's seeing three defenders in close proximity to the player receiving the ball and a player playing a through ball whilst off balance.
What he should have done is wait longer and then make the decision. That he didn’t is a huge error. I think he did that because the point he whistled, he thought it more likely Spurs would recover the ball and didn’t want that to happen before he called it back for the foul.
For your explanation to be right, he’d have to be a bloody amazing actor given his reaction after it as well as showing a very high level of competence and decision making in minimal time in order to screw us over for what would have been still a fairly low xG to use your earlier reference at best. I just don’t see that as a most probable explanation at all, not when you see errors and examples of incompetence seen all the time in virtually every match.
That and you go on any ref forum and they’ll say they’ve made the same mistake themselves, it’s entirely understandable
to them, albeit not forgivable at the level he’s at.
Hes still getting absolute pelters on it and deservedly so. The most probable explanation is incompetence though and I’m pretty sure you really know that yourself.
To say again, I say most probable. Anyone that thinks he did it intentionally, you’re perfectly entitled to that view too.