Rishi Sunak

Would be a bit stupid to call an election after the summer when he only has one policy - “stop the boats”.

The numbers for these will inevitably rocket again in the summer so they can’t hide behind their current “the numbers are down” shtick which is largely driven by seasonality and weather patterns.

Which is why I think there’s only really two options - May or December. And then it becomes a calculation of whether economic improvements offset the frustration of them dragging things out.

I think they have it backwards though. The longer they wait, the more homeowners drop off their fixed rate mortgages and have to face the reality of the impact of interest rates, the poorer the comfortable middle classes will feel. People are not going to feel richer in the scope of 2024, things don’t correct quickly enough.

Ergo, waiting could be even worse for them.

My money is therefore on December - given Tories seem to love self-harm.
 
Waiting until the second half of the year means after the local elections in May.
Almost the only reasons for hanging on seems to be (a) hope something shows up to help and (b) more vandalism.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Waiting until the second half of the year means after the local elections in May.
Almost the only reasons for hanging on seems to be (a) hope something shows up to help and (b) more vandalism.
Click to expand...
I think b is the plan , he knows the game is up on everything else and will figure they can get back in five yrs time when labour are still trying to put right what has been fucked up by tories before they went
 
kaz7 said:
I think b is the plan , he knows the game is up on everything else and will figure they can get back in five yrs time when labour are still trying to put right what has been fucked up by tories before they went
Click to expand...

Or the party machine will figure that! He'll be gone by then.

It was mentioned this morning that in 1997, Labour had a 23% lead in January which was down to 13% by the May election. Anything that gets them down to that kind of level of deficit may be close to blocking an outright majority.

I do think that the pollsters don't really know what's going to happen. The 2019 Brexit/UKIP vote will decay and who knows how seriously Reform will affect the vote.
 
Tories MUST go. They've been fucking awful as a government. One of the worst we've had. Ever. Surely even die hard Tories must think that too.
 
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