Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Churchlawtonblue]

Dont think there will be a war or an invasion. Looks like gunboat doplomacy to me. Too much at stake for Russia to lose. International trading links can be severed and they wouldnt be far off being like North Korea in a very short space of time.

 

[mat]

"You can't do that!"

"Do what?!"

"Training exercises on the border."

"It's in my own country."

"But it's next to the Ukrainian border."

"Load of your military bases circle our borders with different countries. Despite you saying you wouldn't expand further East after glasnost."

"Er...Well you invaded Crimea."

"There's was a vote that overwhelmingly voted to return it here."

"What do you want?"

"I want you to fuck your military bases off in all the countries surrounding mine, and tell other countries that want to allign with you to build more to fuck off too."

"We can't do that."

"Why not?"

"Because you are the threat to the world"

"Do we have any military bases in Canada or Mexico on your borders?"

"Well no."

"Exactly! Now off you fuck. Any body asked Ukraine what they want?"

"We want you both to stop using us for your political bullshit!" (Ukraine)

"Oh now you've done it...They'll invade now. Here have some lethal aid at a reasonable price..."

"Fuck this for a game of soldiers..."

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

I believe Russia's ultimate goal is to install a puppet government in Ukraine.

 

[urban genie]

"You can't do that!"

"Do what?!"

"Training exercises on the border."

"It's in my own country."

"But it's next to the Ukrainian border."

"Load of your military bases circle our borders with different countries. Despite you saying you wouldn't expand further East after glasnost."

"Er...Well you invaded Crimea."

"There's was a vote that overwhelmingly voted to return it here."

"What do you want?"

"I want you to fuck your military bases off in all the countries surrounding mine, and tell other countries that want to allign with you to build more to fuck off too."

"We can't do that."

"Why not?"

"Because you are the threat to the world"

"Do we have any military bases in Canada or Mexico on your borders?"

"Well no."

"Exactly! Now off you fuck. Any body asked Ukraine what they want?"

"We want you both to stop using us for your political bullshit!" (Ukraine)

"Oh now you've done it...They'll invade now. Here have some lethal aid at a reasonable price..."

"Fuck this for a game of soldiers..."

What putin needs is China to threaten an invasion of the Republic of China, give the yanks something else to be busy cunts about.

 

[urban genie]

I was listening to a podcast earlier that thinks Russia have already lost.

Ukraine has been almost defenceless to the threat of Russian land invasion because they have no way of combating Russia's tanks effectively. For decades Russian tactics have been to send in tanks quickly, then let infantry follow to occupy territory when it's all over.

For years, Ukraine has been begging the US and UK to buy NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles. The entire Trump-Ukraine collusion impeachment was brought about by Ukraine desperately trying to get Trump to send these.

Putin has now provoked the US and UK to send thousands of these missiles after years of resisting, and now troops to train how to use them are in Ukraine.

That single decision has ended any chance Putin had of a Crimea or South Ossetia style quick entry, grab land, declare things over type of invasion. If he wants to invade now it's going to have to be a full on air and infantry backed gruesome war, and there's no appetite for that.

He has niether lost or won in my opinion, he is just palying games as always, mainly for effect back in Moscow.
Putin has forced the US and UK to heavily arm the Ukriane, so can keep up his threat from tge west mantra to the russian people while also knowing that he could more than likely rig future events to have a pro russian government in power democratically.

The occupied areas around Donesk will stay Russian and they can just creep further in politically on the sly.

Crimea was calling to be an Independent state free of Ukrainian governance before it was invaded so even of Russia give it up it won't return to Kievs control.

What I would love to know is why Germany, who like to be front and centre on dangers to Europe are so indifferent and unconcerned, and france the other european superpower (now we quit) think the continent can sort it without US and Nato getting involved.


Thisnwill get ramped us then de-escapate as apways, Putin can claim to be defending the motherland and Nato can flex a bit, we will then move on to the next confpict zone till it's time for this to come around again in the powers that be range of interest.

 

[johnnytapia]

Wish I had a log burner in the house it could be getting cold soon.

Very true

 

[BobKowalski]

Dont think there will be a war or an invasion. Looks like gunboat doplomacy to me. Too much at stake for Russia to lose. International trading links can be severed and they wouldnt be far off being like North Korea in a very short space of time.

There is a possibility of engagement and clashes, but Russian troop numbers so far don’t seem enough for a full on invasion and certainly not enough to occupy and control a country the size of Ukraine.

Today the rouble and Russian stock market went into free fall which isn’t helping the Russian rationale for invasion (not that they have much of one anyway).

Finland is beefing up security on its border and if the US puts troops into the NATO Baltic states then this Russian idea of trying to force withdrawal of NATO troops/bases is not going well.

Today the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier, along with its strike group and air wing, joined patrolling activities across the Mediterranean Sea, the first time since the cold war that a full US carrier group has come under Nato command and there is a joint exercise in two weeks with US, French and Italian carrier groups.

Other European countries are also contributing ships and the only country on the sidelines is Germany which has a strong pacifist and appeasement sentiment.

No idea where Putin is going with all this, but if it was to make NATO or Europe back off then it isn’t working.

 

[Semper aggressus]

What putin needs is China to threaten an invasion of the Republic of China, give the yanks something else to be busy cunts about.

It fucking doesn’t need that. My wife is Taiwanese, most of her family are there and she needs to pop back for a couple of weeks soon. Communist pricks can stay the fuck out of Taiwan.

 

[Brightwell’s left peg]

There is a possibility of engagement and clashes, but Russian troop numbers so far don’t seem enough for a full on invasion and certainly not enough to occupy and control a country the size of Ukraine.

Today the rouble and Russian stock market went into free fall which isn’t helping the Russian rationale for invasion (not that they have much of one anyway).

Finland is beefing up security on its border and if the US puts troops into the NATO Baltic states then this Russian idea of trying to force withdrawal of NATO troops/bases is not going well.

Today the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier, along with its strike group and air wing, joined patrolling activities across the Mediterranean Sea, the first time since the cold war that a full US carrier group has come under Nato command and there is a joint exercise in two weeks with US, French and Italian carrier groups.

Other European countries are also contributing ships and the only country on the sidelines is Germany which has a strong pacifist and appeasement sentiment.

No idea where Putin is going with all this, but if it was to make NATO or Europe back off then it isn’t working.

I’m sure there’s a tactical reason for placing an aircraft carrier and strike group into the Med, but I can’t for the life of me think what it is when dealing with Russia? Just one of the thousands of thermonuclear weapons in their armoury would solve that ‘small problem’ should they get into conflict.

I just can’t see any situation where the US would get into a conventional war with Russia without escalation to tactical nukes and the inevitable big boys, so I don’t see the point of deploying an aircraft carrier and support group.

I’m admittedly about as ‘Civvy’ as it gets, so happy to be educated by someone who can tell me what strategic/political value they think it will provide?

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

There is a possibility of engagement and clashes, but Russian troop numbers so far don’t seem enough for a full on invasion and certainly not enough to occupy and control a country the size of Ukraine.

Today the rouble and Russian stock market went into free fall which isn’t helping the Russian rationale for invasion (not that they have much of one anyway).

Finland is beefing up security on its border and if the US puts troops into the NATO Baltic states then this Russian idea of trying to force withdrawal of NATO troops/bases is not going well.

Today the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier, along with its strike group and air wing, joined patrolling activities across the Mediterranean Sea, the first time since the cold war that a full US carrier group has come under Nato command and there is a joint exercise in two weeks with US, French and Italian carrier groups.

Other European countries are also contributing ships and the only country on the sidelines is Germany which has a strong pacifist and appeasement sentiment.

No idea where Putin is going with all this, but if it was to make NATO or Europe back off then it isn’t working.

I’d suggest that Germany are looking at it from a commercial point of view as they’ve worked very hard to get this far with their partnerships. One could go so far to suggest that this is why Russia are pushing it so far, to ensure NordStream2 is brought online therefore bypassing the Ukraine and having direct influence on European countries.

Looks like they’ve already influenced Germany.