Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ChicagoBlue]

They have been incessant in their need to get this going which also gives them a huge influence.

Putin really does have influence in Europe, and we’ve brought it on ourselves.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Not in the Black Sea!

“Vigil” was about the Atlantic Fleet and Baltics, not the Black Sea, or even the Med, IMHO. ;-)

Deep Blue? That’s the China fight!

There’s many ways to push negotiations but, in the end, all measures are about achieving the same goal.

 

[BobKowalski]

The longer we can jawbone this into the Spring, the less Nordstream becomes a watershed issue.

America has disliked, and warned against, Nordstream, as it is a geopolitical weapon. However, Germany is Germany, and the U.S. can only jawbone them so much. The sooner Germany gets their solar, wind, nuke future squared away, the better!

Germany is stubbornly wedded to Nordstream, not helped by ex-politicians having their noses in the Nordstream money trough.

Also, Germany moves at the pace of a sloth when it comes to major decisions over their climate policies.

Germany is definitely out of sync with the rest of Europe over Ukraine. Frankly, they have been embarrassing themselves.

 

[MaineDAWG2008]

Work with a Ukrainian outsourcing company. Spoke at length about the possoble invasion. They seem calm about the situation. Think media are blowing it up more than they should be.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

A big issue is that if Putin decides to try and take Ukraine, and NATO take no action, NATO will look weak and China may just decide to take Taiwan, and then Japan.

Sounds like a real life game of Risk, one move may trigger another.

Japan???

I see you operate under the “Go big or go home” philosophy!

 

[Scottyboi]

https://twitter.com/RALee85

Dominic Cummings put me onto this account, shows you all the militaries mobilising ect.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Apparently Putin thinks there may be terrorists and even wmd's in Ukraine - possibly able to launch an attack in 45 mins on Moscow. Surely in that context it's ok to invade - war against terror and all that?

 

[mat]

Apparently Putin thinks there may be terrorists and even wmd's in Ukraine - possibly able to launch an attack in 45 mins on Moscow. Surely in that context it's ok to invade - war against terror and all that?

Sounds familiar...
*ponders*

 

[SWP's back]

Domestic issues at home so it's time to act all John Wayne on the Old Enemy.

You mean Putin has domestic issues? Because this is entirely Russia’s doing. No one else is putting 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border.

 

[SWP's back]

Many pundits whom I trust have argued that Putin has no choice - that a Western allied Ukraine, on the very borders of Russia, represents an existential threat to Russia and cannot be tolerated.

I bought into this line for quite awhile. But then, I started thinking...
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1) How likely is it that the West will attack Russia? We're a peace-loving Democracy, loath to engage in warfare. Moreover, Russia is armed with nuclear weapons. It's almost unforeseeable that the West would initiate war with Russia;

2) What about border proximity? Isn't that a legitimate concern? - Frankly, I doubt this very, very much. Maybe 50 years ago this was relevant. But modern warfare is extremely rapid, spanning any border with ease.
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In short, invasion of Ukraine is mostly popular with the Russian populace. And Putin is making excuses to do so. By all accounts the Crimea annexation boosted Putin's popularity enormously.

Invasion of the Ukraine proper though is bound to be a fish of another kettle altogether. Russian troop casualties are bound to be high and sustained. Prolonged warfare with a high death rate isn't going to be popular.

Thus, I still think that Russia won't invade the Ukraine; this invasion strikes me as a made up pretext designed to curry favor with the Russian populace. But who knows? This is just my opinion - and if Russia does invade the Ukraine - it's somewhat surprising for me - but strikes me as a huge, huge mistake for Putin.

Nail on head.