Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MillionMilesAway]

Whilst I’m usually first to give the Yanks a dig in the ribs over their love of dropping freedom all over the Middle East, if it wasn’t for the US’s support of Ukraine right now, they’d be fully under Russian military control. Their people don’t want that, I believe in self determination and thus Putin can go fuck himself.

I bet Putin is quaking in his boots about all those NATO bases on Russia's border. That'll be 2 in Estonia and 2 in Latvia.
So threatening Ukraine makes perfect sense.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Germany is definitely out of sync with the rest of Europe over Ukraine. Frankly, they have been embarrassing themselves.

Not like the Germans to turn their noses up at a conflict with Russia.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

If you believe the US aren’t prepared to get into a fight over Ukraine, then I expect Putin believes it too and hence the movement of an aircraft carrier to the area to posture is of little consequence I expect.

if you believe the US are prepared to get into a fight, I hope your optimism it won’t escalate is well founded.

If you think every fight that involves casualties requires a nuclear response, none of us would be alive today and even the cockroaches would be struggling with the nuclear winter.

I’m certainly not saying there won’t be “fighting,” and the use of a significant naval force is both deterrent and threat. Take as needed.

The US is not going to a first strike nuclear stance, even though it reserves the right to do so, over a non-NATO former Soviet state. It would be madness.

That’s not to say there are not available widowmakers without the need for nuclear tips on them.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Fair enough, but I think part of the problem is that a large portion of the Ukraine wants to be Russian? A difficult problem -like some Irish folk being adamant they are British I suppose. I personally think the Ukraine should remain a sovereign state free of western or Russian interference.

I think Ukrainian determination should come from free and fair elections, so the Ukrainian people can exercise self determination.

Ukraine poses no threat to Russia and Biden has already stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO state is not on the foreseeable agenda.

Neither Putin nor Xi wants to be hemmed in or threatened, and (I believe) neither of them are.

That said, their desire for expansionist states is a global threat to democracy and the free trade that comes with it.

Russia wants to control the Black Sea, have a short cut to the East Med and Middle East, and control its southern border BUFFER.

I think the US and Europe can assure Russia that their control is not under threat, as long as they don’t move on Ukraine.

If they do, then we are off to the races and much face-saving must be done, possibly the hard way!

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I think Ukrainian determination should come from free and fair elections, so the Ukrainian people can exercise self determination.

Ukraine poses no threat to Russia and Biden has already stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO state is not on the foreseeable agenda.

Neither Putin nor Xi wants to be hemmed in or threatened, and (I believe) neither of them are.

That said, their desire for expansionist states is a global threat to democracy and the free trade that comes with it.

Russia wants to control the Black Sea, have a short cut to the East Med and Middle East, and control its southern border BUFFER.

I think the US and Europe can assure Russia that their control is not under threat, as long as they don’t move on Ukraine.

If they do, then we are off to the races and much face-saving must be done, possibly the hard way!

All of this.

China is a different issue and including it will just muddy the issue of Russia\Ukraine.

 

[Brightwell’s left peg]

If you think every fight that involves casualties requires a nuclear response, none of us would be alive today and even the cockroaches would be struggling with the nuclear winter.

I’m certainly not saying there won’t be “fighting,” and the use of a significant naval force is both deterrent and threat. Take as needed.

The US is not going to a first strike nuclear stance, even though it reserves the right to do so, over a non-NATO former Soviet state. It would be madness.

That’s not to say there are not available widowmakers without the need for nuclear tips on them.

I don’t think that every fight results in nuclear escalation, which is why I said “if the U.S. and its allies start inflicting heavy losses and back them into a corner with a threat of further losses, I can’t see Russia avoiding using tactical nukes?”

The above would be an unprecedented situation post 2nd world war.

As for the threat of a significant naval force, I don’t think it’s a threat at all to someone of the might of Russia. I guess we’ll agree to disagree.

Beyond that, not getting into a pissing contest. I asked an open question and you answered it.

 

[inbetween]

I think Ukrainian determination should come from free and fair elections, so the Ukrainian people can exercise self determination.

Ukraine poses no threat to Russia and Biden has already stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO state is not on the foreseeable agenda.

Neither Putin nor Xi wants to be hemmed in or threatened, and (I believe) neither of them are.

That said, their desire for expansionist states is a global threat to democracy and the free trade that comes with it.

Russia wants to control the Black Sea, have a short cut to the East Med and Middle East, and control its southern border BUFFER.

I think the US and Europe can assure Russia that their control is not under threat, as long as they don’t move on Ukraine.

If they do, then we are off to the races and much face-saving must be done, possibly the hard way!

China is very different to Russia geopolitically, they're not interested in war or conflict because for them everything comes down to the Chinese economy which is what gives them their power. In any event China doesn't need to fire a single bullet, it could easily start an economic war that would devastate the world.

This is why we have to treat China very carefully because economic sanctions would be suicidal and inevitably affect ourselves as much as China itself. Trump tried it and the US/world economy faltered somewhat but the Chinese economy in comparison was barely affected.

With Russia it's different and for Putin it's all about the military power play because the reality is Russia have strong armed forces but that's all they have, they're not actually a major player as a nation. The west could for example bankrupt Russia overnight and that's why a war in Ukraine precipitating into a war with the west is very unlikely but Putin has to be seen to be strong.

 

[Indaparkside]

China doesn't need to fire a single bullet, it could easily start an economic war that would devastate the world.

Or maybe just unleash a virus

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

In any event China doesn't need to fire a single bullet, it could easily start an economic war that would devastate the world.

I couldn't disagree more. China is wrapped up integrally with the world economy. I agree that China could damage the world economy greatly by instigating an economic war. By "easily" - no way.

Such wars are two-way - China would be impacted by such a war as well, quite possibly more impacted than the nations they're at war with.

 

[SWP's back]

China is very different to Russia geopolitically, they're not interested in war or conflict because for them everything comes down to the Chinese economy which is what gives them their power. In any event China doesn't need to fire a single bullet, it could easily start an economic war that would devastate the world.

This is why we have to treat China very carefully because economic sanctions would be suicidal and inevitably affect ourselves as much as China itself. Trump tried it and the US/world economy faltered somewhat but the Chinese economy in comparison was barely affected.

With Russia it's different and for Putin it's all about the military power play because the reality is Russia have strong armed forces but that's all they have, they're not actually a major player as a nation. The west could for example bankrupt Russia overnight and that's why a war in Ukraine precipitating into a war with the west is very unlikely but Putin has to be seen to be strong.

China own the majority of US sovereign debt, the US could also bankrupt China overnight by defaulting. It serves no one’s purpose for the US/China to have at it economically as they’d both fuck themselves to high heaven, and they’re both aware of that.