If Ukraine re-takes/gets Crimea, then there's no chance in the near future of Russia retaking it, as they'll just close/destroy the Kerch bridge, or mine it. And then have anti-ship and anti-airborne missiles along Crimea coast.If they push the Russians into Crimea and back into Russia in the north and east of the country, they need to have HIMARS sat on the border to counter any build up of Russian troops and equipment like they managed to do last February. To really piss them off get Ukraine in NATO, they wouldn’t chance their arm if they knew that America and Europe would then wade into any of their shithousery.
CorrectedWhen Ukraine re-takes/gets Crimea, then there's no chance in the near future of Russia retaking it, as they'll just close/destroy the Kerch bridge, or mine it. And then have anti-ship and anti-airborne missiles along Crimea coast.
The long land border of the rest of the country (+ Belarus border) is where HIMAR's would need to be deployed in numbers - but with Ukraine likely to be in NATO (or even still without), they'll get intelligence on any future build up. As @cleavers alluded to, the invasion was known about as a possibility back in november 2021 (and probably far earlier), and became a certainty in december, as the troops built up on 'exercises'.
Russia TV starting to try to spin it that "its not our fight"
heh! I think I originally went down the line of IF... they had to retake Crimea by force. It's possible the russians just leave as it will become untenable to hold, especially if the Mariupol coastline gets retaken... leaving them trapped on an 'island' with only the Kerch bridge to get off/be supplied with.Corrected